The overall selling pressure has been diluted and dispersed.
It's normal to reduce prices in Northeast China at this time (except last year), but the extent of price reduction is controversial. Some people think that this is the high point of the tide pattern, and some people think that this is the low point of the tide pattern.
Each statement has its own theoretical basis, and everyone is familiar with it.
Many people think that when the price of corn rose last year, processing enterprises will not compete with the market for harvest this year. Last year was only a once-in-a-century market in the corn market. There were many "conspiracies" involved, and there were practices of deliberately "trapping" traders.
But if there is no dependence on the follow-up grain source, will deep processing not establish inventory? In the coming year, it is impossible for deep processing to rely entirely on trade grain for production.
A person needs to sum up experience after success, but he needs to find problems from the inside after failure. If we simply and rudely put the cause of failure above the external environment, we will also fail in future operations, and it is easy to repeat the same mistakes.
Last year, everyone failed because their enthusiasm was mobilized to the extreme. They ignored all the risks and refused to listen to different opinions.
Since the beginning of this year, it has gone to the other extreme, being overly pessimistic and cautious. In fact, anyone who has done trade knows that no matter how comprehensive the investigation and accurate the balance sheet are, they can't resist some unknown risks and unexpected situations in the market.
Many people question last year's data, but on the whole, last year's survey data is also accurate, but the quantity of national imports is constantly adjusting and changing, which is unpredictable. The release of substitutes has seriously exceeded the previously announced quantity, and there is no clear official data on the use of corn flour in the free trade zone.
These uncertainties have also led to the fear of traders, and this year's corn quota is 7.2 million tons. However, according to the current data, the amount of corn imported from China to the United States in 2020/2 1 year (10 from June to September next year) is estimated to be 30 million tons, which is 4 million tons higher than the official forecast of the US Department of Agriculture. Some insiders believe that the import volume may be as high as 32 million tons. Imports are still an uncertain data.
While vigorously promoting marketization, the country is constantly regulating prices, which is also the most helpless and incomprehensible place for traders.
If we follow the trend of market operation, it will violate the national policy will, and if we operate according to the policy guidelines, the policies will be inconsistent.
It seems that traders must learn politics well and deeply understand and understand policy orientation, which is more important than market research.
If the corn of 2020 /202 1 is compared with wheat, what is the price comparison object of the corn of 202 1 /2022? Is it wheat or rice? Officials also admit that there is still a gap of more than 20 million tons of corn. At present, the domestic corn output can be determined, and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has also lowered this year's output, but compared with last month, it is only 850,000 tons lower. Market participants basically think that the output reduction in North China is much higher than this figure, which is just a muddled account.
In the continuous supply market of new corn, the spot price is under pressure, while the price of wheat has been rising recently. At present, the price of corn is superior to that of wheat in use value, but the gap between production and demand of corn itself still exists in 202 1 /2022, and the price needs to be maintained at a high level to stimulate substitutes to make up for the energy gap. From this point of view, the current corn price does not have the possibility of a sharp drop, even if new grain is listed, it is difficult to have a deep drop. When the corn price fluctuates at a low level, it will inevitably stimulate the return of demand and trade storage, and the early increase of demand is potentially substantial for the long-term trend of corn.
Some large trading entities have realized this and started to purchase in the market. Today, Jinzhou Port Beidahuang Group took the lead in purchasing new grain, and the number of traders' purchases increased significantly. Bayuquan Port also raised the purchase price of corn 10 yuan/ton today, with an average price of 2480 yuan/ton. The production area is still not satisfactory, but the corn export in Liaoning has increased by 100%.
Traders in Northeast China are still confused, especially in Heilongjiang. Seeing that the quality of this year's corn is not much better, they dare not buy it, and the flow is not much. Feed procurement in the sales area is basically concentrated in Liaoning and Jilin. In the face of rising coal prices and freight rates, I really don't know where to start.
The most puzzling thing is the capricious policy, the price of wheat will rise again, and the market rumors that the standard for temporary storage of wheat will be raised soon. According to the report released by the US Department of Agriculture on September 30th, the wheat supply in the United States dropped to the lowest level since 2007, and the wheat output reached the lowest level since 19. Domestic wheat stocks are also not optimistic. The target price of temporarily stored wheat in the future determines how much quantity can be used as a substitute. A lot of rice is also a stone on the head of corn.
In the short period of 2020 /202 1, corn has evolved from a unilaterally traded variety to a multilaterally traded commodity, which is difficult for many traders to adapt to. Fixed market operations are no longer applicable, and the new framework is not yet mature. What can we do except wait and see?
Many friends asked me to make a suggestion. I really can't plan a comprehensive plan. Traders with large volume must use futures derivatives to "protect the price". Small friends can only walk around and pay attention to the needs of farmers around them.
Traders without inventory have nothing to do with trade.
This year, many drying towers signed contracts with feed mills in the marketing field. We should adhere to the principle of not increasing profits. At the same time of circulation, it is necessary to establish a certain inventory at a suitable price. There is no need to be overly bearish in the later period. Rigid demand exists every year, but the price suppresses the quantity.
Due to the constraints of mood, capital and drying cost, the price of corn may be unexpected later this year. However, every transaction, no matter how accurate it is, contains "gambling" to some extent, depending on the ratio of winners and losers in this "gambling".