Question 1: What is the higher the yield of national debt, the better? For those who already hold national debt, the higher the yield of national debt means the lower the price of national debt, the higher the possibility of default (generally speaking, China's national debt will not default), and the higher the inflation. So, to put it simply, for the holders of national debt, the increase in yield is not a good thing! For those who want to buy government bonds, higher yields may be a good thing. On the other hand, the yield of government bonds rose because no one bought it. For example, Italy now. The yield of national debt refers to the annual average ratio of the income from investing in national debt to the amount of investment principal in a certain period of time. The yield of national debt is inversely proportional to the market price. The higher the yield, the lower the price, and the lower the yield, the higher the price.

Question 2: What does the low bond yield mean? Central bank loosens monetary policy.

Question 3: What does the high yield of national debt mean? Not everything is high or good. The national debt is issued by Greece. If 654.38+0 billion yuan is issued this year with an annual yield of 94%, then nearly 20 billion yuan will be returned to those who buy Greek government bonds in the next year. However, at present, the unemployment rate in Greece is very high, and social welfare consumption is greater than the capital dividend created by society. In other words, in fact, such a high interest rate is simply unaffordable and unreasonable for Greece. So how to solve this problem now? The only way is to continue to issue 20 billion national debt. . . . You can also continue to increase the rate of return to attract investors, the rate of return 100% to 200%, and so on. Without the EU's economic support policy, national bankruptcy bonds may also become a blank sheet of paper.

Question 4: How does the yield of national debt affect the economy? Let me answer the landlord:

Generally speaking, if a country has no money to spend and wants to borrow money, it must issue government bonds and sell them. For example, I am Spain. I issued the national debt with 100 yuan paper money. I sold this national debt 100 to get the money. I will use 100 to buy this national debt bond in the future, even if I pay my debts. Of course, I can't sell this national debt with 100 yuan, because the people who buy this national debt bond need it. When I give him 100 yuan to buy back this 100 bond, I can earn 1 yuan. This 1 yuan is called "national debt income". Divide this 99 yuan by 1 yuan, and you can get the "national debt yield", and a * * * (or financial institution) has a bad reputation. In other words, if he issues national debt, people think that he may not be able to pay it back in the future. Then fewer people will buy these bonds, such as Greece now, because people think that Greece is likely to be unable to repay them in the future. Those who buy these bonds will bear great risks. There will be fewer people buying it. And they hope that in order to borrow money, we have no choice but to sell the bonds of 100 at a low price. For example, at present, Greek 100 bonds are only sold around 80 yuan. And if the buyer of these bonds will be repaid by Greece in the future, then for every 100 yuan repaid, the buyer of the national debt will get about 20/80, that is, about 25%, that is to say, the yield of this Greek national debt is 25%. Therefore, the higher the yield of a country's national debt, it shows that people are worried about its financial situation and doubt its future repayment ability. The high yield of national debt shows that the economic situation and economic prospects are very bad. On the contrary, if the yield of national debt is low, it shows that people believe that the financial situation of this country or * * * is healthy.

So fundamentally speaking, it is the current economic situation that affects the yield of national debt, and the yield of national debt affects people's economic expectations of this economy (that is, people guess whether the future economic development of this economy is good or bad), and then it really affects the future of this country or economy.

In fact: the financial world of this world is an expected world.

Question 5: What do you mean the stock returns are lower than the bond returns? What does the rise in bond yields mean to the market? With the continuous improvement of American economy and strong growth momentum, and the decision of the Federal Reserve to cut QE to $75 billion from June 20 14, the yield of US 10-year treasury bonds has recently risen again and exceeded the 3% mark. So, what does the rise in the yield of government bonds mean to the stock market? In this report, we analyze the reasons for the upward rate of return, the future trend, the impact on the market and industry performance, the valuation level and possible targets one by one through seven questions. Q 1: where is it now? -it is still at a historical low and will continue to rise moderately in the future. Since 1980s, the yield of national debt has been in a long-term downward channel. Although it has rebounded obviously recently, it is still at a historical low, which is one standard deviation lower than the historical average since 1962. Looking forward to the future, we believe that the yield of government bonds will maintain a moderate upward trend from the current low level, but it will not rise rapidly and sharply, mainly considering that the Federal Reserve will still maintain a loose monetary policy and the extremely low benchmark interest rate will last for a long time. Q2: What is the reason for the growth? -The downward trend of inflation expectations mainly reflects more optimistic expectations for the economy. Since the low of 20 13 in early May, the yield of US 10-year treasury bonds has risen sharply by more than 130 basis points, but the implied inflation expectation in the market has dropped significantly. This shows that the rise in the yield of government bonds more reflects investors' optimistic expectations for the improvement of economic prospects. Q3: So what is the impact? -There is a positive correlation between the change of bond yield and the performance of the stock market. On the whole, in the rising cycle of national debt yield in the past few decades, the stock market mostly has good positive returns; However, after 2000, the two became obviously positive correlation, and after 2008, the correlation between them was further greatly improved. In addition, the S&P 500 index has performed well in different time periods after the yield of government bonds bottomed out in recent rounds. Q4: But the higher the better? -when it is higher than 5%, the increase in yield is often not conducive to market performance, of course not. We find that the positive correlation between stock market performance and bond yield is often concentrated in the range where the bond yield is lower than 5%, and when it is higher than 5%, the upward trend of bond yield will not be conducive to stock market performance. In addition, the rapid rise in bond yields will also have a certain adverse impact on economic recovery, especially on the real estate market. Excessive capital cost will also bring greater financial expenditure burden to enterprises. Finally, if the bond yield rises sharply and greatly exceeds the dividend yield, the attractiveness of the bond market will increase. Q5: What is the impact on the valuation? -Positive correlation; The decline of risk premium offset the increase of risk-free interest rate. From the historical data, there is also a significant positive correlation between the yield of 10-year treasury bonds and the dynamic market yield of S&P 500 index 12 months. Although the yield of government bonds will push up the risk-free interest rate, with the sustained and moderate economic recovery, the reduction of policy uncertainty is expected to push down the risk premium of equity, thus offsetting the negative drag of the rise of risk-free interest rate on the cost of equity. Q6: Where are the plates? -Cyclical industries obviously outperform cyclical stocks when the yield of 10 national debt rises, and vice versa. Among them, information technology (such as software, hardware equipment and semiconductors), capital goods, automobiles and retail sectors often have good excess returns. Q7: Affected targets? -According to the level of financial leverage and cash flow, we find that the solvency of public utilities and telecommunications services is poor, and the leverage level is higher than other industries. Therefore, with the increase of bond yield in the future, it may be more impacted; On the contrary, the financial situation and solvency of the information technology sector are obviously better than other industries, so the negative impact will be smaller. In addition, according to the level of financial leverage and cash flow, we also screened the targets in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index that may be most/least affected.

Question 6: What does the rising yield of national debt mean? From the macro-economic point of view, the high yield of national debt means that the market economy is running well, growing steadily and the return on investment is stable. The low interest rate means that the macro economy starts to fluctuate and the market is not optimistic about the economic prospect, so the interest rate is low when a large amount of funds flock to the national debt.

Question 7: The low yield of10-year government bonds means hello. National debt is the most important risk-free rate of return index besides bank deposits. The constant low interest rate of national debt means that a large amount of funds do not want to enter high-risk investment fields such as entities, and compete to buy risk-free and low-risk bonds, resulting in a continuous decline in bond interest rates.

Question 8: Why is the decline in the yield of government bonds good for the stock market? There are certain funds available for investment. If someone buys treasury bonds futures, there will be less money to buy stocks. So this is bad.

Question 9: What is the impact of the lower yield of government bonds on the country's currency? The yield of national debt is negatively related to the price of national debt, that is, the more people subscribe, the lower the yield of national debt, which means that investors are willing to lend money to the country, so the country can raise funds at a very low interest rate, which is definitely a good thing for the country. Quantitative easing refers to the behavior of the central bank issuing new currency to buy bonds. The purpose of central bank intervention is to lower the interest rate of national debt and reduce the financing cost.

Question 10: What is the yield of national debt? The higher the rate of return, the better. The yield of national debt refers to the ratio of the income from investing in national debt to the total investment each year. Usually expressed by the annual rate of return "%". Generally speaking, it is to buy this national debt at the current price, and how much income you can get every year when you hold it at maturity, of course, it is high.