Forecast of Peanut Price in 2022
In 2022, it is estimated that the price of peanuts will increase, and fresh peanuts will increase to more than a dozen pieces. It is estimated that the price of peanuts should not be lower than 202 1 in 2022, and the estimated price is about 1 ton 15000 yuan.
Because some areas in 20021are affected by drought, the peanut output will decline, so the price of peanuts will not be very low in 2022, and the number of imported peanuts will also decrease due to the epidemic situation, and the market situation is very good.
In some areas, because of too much rain, peanut production is seriously reduced, which will cause a shortage of resources. Many peanuts rotted in the ground, and even if some villagers harvested them early, they sprouted in the rain. Therefore, peanut resources are in short supply this year, and the price increase is certain.
In 2022, the fluctuation space of peanut price will be narrowed, and the number of imported peanuts will continue to increase. Peanut shops that hoard peanuts for profit will find it difficult to make a profit. Like pig futures, peanut futures and forward contracts are cautious, and recent contracts are dominated by high altitude!
Analysis of Peanut Market in 2022
In 20021-2022, the output of peanut in China decreased slightly compared with the previous year, and the import volume also had certain variables. However, last year's carry-over inventory reached a record high, and the overall supply was still sufficient.
However, it takes a long time to improve the demand, and the situation of domestic peanut supply exceeding demand is difficult to change in the short term. The market is still a typical buyer's market.
Judging from the data of oil plant acquisition and crushing, the current oil plant acquisition volume has increased rapidly. However, the operating rate and processing capacity are obviously lower than the same period of last year, and the oil plant is still in the passive accumulation stage of peanuts. The purchase price may continue to be lowered, and there is still downward pressure on the spot price and pk2204.
With the arrival of the peanut planting period from April to May in 2022, the market's expectation that the planting area and supply will be greatly reduced next year will support the spot price.
If the planting area can be reduced as expected, it will effectively improve the market price expectation of PK22 10 and subsequent contracts, and the spot price of peanut is expected to rise.
Looking forward to the peanut futures market in 2022, the current farmers' reluctance to sell and the cautious purchase of oil plants have pushed back the market supply pressure. The impact of low import prices will continue, the annual carry-over inventory will reach a new high, and the PK2204 contract will be under pressure accordingly.