The good day for farmers has finally come, but it makes people feel a little flustered. Everyone with eyes knows that this is not normal. During this time, second brother is crazy. We often say that "everything goes wrong, there will be a demon", and this wave of pig prices is "Jin 10 broken 1 1", which is full of strange things.
According to China Weather News, recently, in addition to the first typhoon "Siam (xiān) Ba" that landed in China this year, there was a rainstorm along the coast of South China, and the center of gravity of heavy rainfall shifted to Guangxi.
Affected by it, in the next few days, there will be continuous heavy rainfall and local heavy rain in Guangxi; In addition to Guangxi and western Guangdong, parts of Hunan, Hubei and other places will also join the ranks of rainfall, or now it is heavy rain.
At the same time, according to the forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, a new round of rainfall in northern China has gradually developed in the past two days.
Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Henan, Shandong and other places have moderate to heavy rain from west to east. There are heavy rains in northern Beijing, northeastern Hebei, northern Henan, western Shandong and other places, accompanied by strong convective weather such as short-term heavy precipitation, thunderstorms or hail.
Recently, heavy rains in the south and north have made it difficult to transport pigs, and it is difficult for slaughter enterprises to get goods. In addition, farmers are optimistic about the market outlook and restrict the slaughter, resulting in a tight supply of short-term pigs.
In addition, the continuous purchasing and storage of frozen pork, although less transactions, continues to support the market mentality. According to the data of Dalian Commodity Exchange, from June to June this year, the total number of live pig futures sold nationwide was 4.06 million lots, with a total turnover of10.05 trillion yuan, of which the main contract price of live pig futures exceeded 20,830 yuan per ton, higher than the current price of10.9 million yuan per ton.
It is good for farmers that pig prices have risen one after another, but in the medium and long term, this "abnormal" increase is not only harmful to slaughterhouses and consumers, but also to most people in the industry. Don't go back to the skyrocketing market. The pig market needs to fluctuate reasonably within a reasonable range to meet the demands of many people in the industrial chain. Now, in the opposite direction, people have to be more vigilant, although this has led to an increase in pig prices.
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, at the end of May, there were 4 1.92 million sows in China, which is equivalent to a positive constant of 4 1 10,000/02.2%, which is in a green and reasonable area for the regulation of pig productivity, with a slight increase of 0.4% from the previous month and a decrease of 8. 1% from the same period last year.
This shows that the current pig production capacity is still relatively sufficient, and there is no fundamental reason for the crazy rise. So where is the problem? It is true that free-range households do not have this ability and strength, which is likely to be the "black-box operation" of pig enterprises.
In this regard, a notice circulated on the Internet that the National Development and Reform Commission will hold a meeting on July 4 to analyze the recent supply and demand and price situation of the live pig market.
The notice of the meeting has been sent to relevant associations and aquaculture enterprises. According to the notice, relevant enterprises will be reminded to maintain the normal rhythm of slaughter, avoid blindly pressing the bar, put forward the requirements of not hoarding and driving up prices, and study relevant measures to maintain the smooth operation of the live pig market.
After understanding and verification, there is indeed a notice of the above meeting.
Insiders also said that there is no shortage of pigs in the market at present, but the excessive market pressure has led to the recent excessive price increase, and then concentrated in August and September, which is likely to lead to a rapid decline in pig prices, which is not conducive to the stable and healthy development of the industry.
In fact, at present, the country has an open plan for pigs and pork. In essence, it is necessary to support the bottom to prevent the price from being too low, and to limit the price to prevent the price from being too high. Judging from the current stock of sows, fat pigs and piglets, they are all sufficient, and there is no basis for a sharp increase in prices.
Therefore, in the face of "abnormal" changes in pig prices, farmers are advised to be vigilant. The big pigs to be sold in the pigsty may as well sell on rallies and keep their bags at ease.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose 0 and fell 0, and the rising areas accounted for 100% of all monitored. The lowest average price of live pigs monitored nationwide is 10.40 yuan/kg, the highest is 10.97 yuan/kg, and the overall average price of live pigs is 10.
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises has risen again, the bidding difficulty of enterprises has obviously increased, the market sentiment has improved again, and the bullish sentiment has obviously increased. Due to the constraints of rainy weather, it is more difficult to buy slaughterhouses. Due to the overall shrinkage of large pig enterprises and the inability of slaughter enterprises to suppress prices, the market bullish sentiment has rebounded. The enthusiasm of breeding groups for bidding has increased, and the bidding results have increased and the scope has expanded.
Forecast of pig price trend tomorrow: Based on the recent analysis of pig market factors, it is expected that the pig price will show a "large-scale rise" phenomenon tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome everyone to exchange views on the hog market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share, and tomorrow will be more exciting. I believe that with your help, the price of pigs will rise again.