I. Analysis of the trend of international oil price and its influencing factors
(A) the recent trend of international oil prices
From May to September, 2065438+00, affected by the European sovereign debt crisis and other factors, the international oil price hovered at a low level, and the monthly average oil price fluctuated within a narrow range of 73-76 USD/barrel. However, since 20 10 and 10, affected by the quantitative easing monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, international oil prices have continued to rise as a whole. 654381October 4th, the New York Mercantile Exchange West Texas Light Crude Oil (WTI) futures closed at 8 1.47 USD/barrel; 1 65438+1October1,reaching 83.29 USD/barrel; 65438+February 3 1, closing at 89.84 USD/barrel.
Generally speaking, the annual average price of oil in the international market in 20 10 is about 28% higher than that in 2009. 20 1 1 1, the overall trend of international crude oil prices is still on the rise. From February to March, due to the closure of the Alaska oil pipeline, the closure of the North Sea crude oil platform and the turmoil in Libya, the market was worried about the supply of crude oil, which led to the international oil price continuing to fluctuate within a narrow range.
(B) Analysis of factors affecting the recent international oil price trend
The recent sharp rise in international oil prices is the result of the combined effects of the following factors:
1, supply and demand factors. On the one hand, the global economic recovery has boosted oil demand. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, the global economy is expected to grow by 4.4% in 20 1 1 year, including 3% in the United States and 1.7% in the Eurozone. The economic growth of China and India is 9.6% and 8.4% respectively. Although the growth rate is lower than 20 10, it shows a "general increase" trend. Against this background, the increase in oil demand is expected to be optimistic. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries predicts that the global average daily oil demand will increase by 6.5438+0.2 million barrels in 2065.438+0.65438+0, and the overall demand level of the international oil market is expected to return to the level before the international financial crisis. Reuters's survey also shows that in 20 1 1 year, the average global oil demand will increase by1500,000 barrels to 88.6 million barrels, mainly due to the strong demand from developing countries.
On the other hand, the supply side is relatively tight, and the increment is difficult to meet the demand. At present, most of the global oil production comes from large oil fields, and with the gradual aging of these oil fields, its output is gradually declining. The output of 800 oil fields, which account for 2/3 of the world's total oil output, drops by 6.7% annually on average. In addition, the supply capacity of oil-producing organizations that are highly dependent on the new global oil production capacity has declined. According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency, due to the financial crisis, some global oil development projects are postponed, and the increase of oil production capacity will be reduced from 20 1 1 to 20 13.
2. Financial markets and speculative factors. The quantitative easing policy of the United States has released a lot of liquidity to the world, which has lowered the dollar. The continuous decline of the exchange rate of the dollar has become the driving force for the rise of oil prices, and oil has become more and more "financialized". There is a negative correlation between the dollar and oil prices. After the depreciation of the dollar, many investors abandoned dollar assets and turned to speculate on commodities such as oil, which pushed up the rise of international oil prices. The latest Oil Futures Market Monthly published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the United States shows that fund institutions, as the main force to promote the market, continue to do more international oil futures markets. 20 1 1 year and 1 month, the net long positions of global funds are 149466 lots, 169085 lots,16655/kloc-0 lots and/kloc respectively. Speculation can be clearly seen from this round of oil price rise.
Another new phenomenon worthy of attention is the "Shuang Sheng" of dollar price and oil price. 20 1 1 year, the growth rate of the United States is 3.6%, and that of Europe is 1.7%. It is estimated that the growth gap between the United States and Europe may be greater than 2%. The slow recovery in Europe has diverted some of the capital flowing in Europe to the dollar market and some to the oil market, so the two markets may have a "double growth" situation.
3. Uncertainties such as political turmoil and natural disasters. The current international geopolitical and natural disaster risks have increased the possibility of rising oil prices. 2065438+01The surge of WTI crude oil on February 22nd shows that the risks brought by frequent geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa have expanded. In addition, the rising prices of other commodities have enhanced people's psychological expectation of tight crude oil supply in the international market and created conditions for oil speculation. In addition, global excess liquidity and rising inflation expectations will attract a large number of hedging and profit-seeking funds to flood into the oil futures market.
In this regard, expert analysis said: On the one hand, the crisis in the Middle East and North Africa and possible uncertainties have caused market speculation and speculation to heat up again, which may continue to push up oil prices. On the other hand, as long as geopolitical turmoil does not spread to Gulf oil-producing countries, international oil prices will not have a serious impact on global economic recovery. According to the data of the International Energy Agency (IEA), the daily oil production in Libya has dropped by about 6,543,800 barrels. However, if Saudi Arabia's previous increase of 700,000 barrels per day is included, Libya's crude oil supply gap can be almost completely filled. After Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates and Algeria are also expected to increase their daily oil production by 300,000 barrels in April of 20 1 1 year. The International Energy Agency also indicated that its crude oil reserve is about1600 million barrels, which can guarantee the supply of member countries for about five months.
In addition, affected by the earthquake measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale off Honshu Island in Japan on March 20 1 1, Japan's demand for oil will decline at least in the short term, and the international oil price once fell below 100 USD. But since Japan is the third largest oil importer in the world, post-disaster reconstruction will consume a lot of energy and raw materials. Therefore, experts generally believe that Japanese oil prices may fall in the short term after the earthquake, and the medium and long-term trend of oil prices needs further observation.
(c) Comparative analysis of current oil price increase and oil price increase in 2007-2008.
After analysis, there are similarities and differences between this round of oil price increase and 2007-2008. In 2007-2008, international oil prices experienced a sharp upward trend. At the beginning of 2007, it was about $50 per barrel, and it has been climbing to a record high of $45.66 on July 0, 2008. However, after July 14, international oil prices fell rapidly due to the US financial crisis. In 2008, the oil price only stayed above the price of 100 for three months, so some analysts believe that speculation was the most direct driving factor for the oil price increase at that time.
There are many factors that lead to this round of oil price increase, namely, the recovery of the world economy drives the actual and expected demand growth of crude oil, the tight supply, the depreciation of the dollar in the financial market, speculation and political factors. To jointly promote a sharp rise in oil prices. In the short term, speculation caused by the flood of dollar liquidity is also the leading factor to promote a new round of oil price rise cycle.
Second, the impact of changes in international oil prices on the macro economy.
(A) channels that have an impact on the macro economy
Changes in international oil prices will have a direct or indirect impact on consumption, investment and export at the macroeconomic level, and will also have an impact on the output and price of the national economy through monetary channels.
From the analysis of the three factors of GDP growth, for net oil importing countries, rising oil prices will reduce consumption and investment, reduce exports, thus adversely affecting the domestic economy. This influence is reflected in the currency channel. The rise of international oil price has two effects: on the one hand, the rise of oil price promotes the rise of the overall price level, and the most effective monetary policy to offset the rise of the overall price level is to raise the real interest rate, which will have a negative impact on the national economy. On the other hand, a country's monetary authorities may adopt loose monetary policy to stabilize short-term output under the requirement of compensating high oil prices. In the medium and long term, the monetary authorities need to raise interest rates to cope with rising inflation expectations, and the coordination and transformation of long-term and short-term policies may have a negative impact on the real economy.
(b) Impact on developing countries
In the two oil crises in history, the huge rise in international oil prices had a greater impact on the economies of developed countries than other countries. This is because oil accounts for a large proportion in the energy consumption structure of developed countries, and their economies are heavily dependent on oil. The fluctuation of international oil prices especially affects the American economy, which ranks first in the world in terms of economic aggregate and crude oil consumption. The International Monetary Fund has estimated that for every $5 increase in oil prices, the global economic growth rate will drop by about 0.3 percentage points, while the US economic growth rate may drop by about 0.4 percentage points.
At present, after two oil shocks, developed countries generally take countermeasures, adjust economic structure, develop energy conservation and emission reduction, and greatly enhance their ability to cope with high oil prices. On the contrary, most developing countries are in the middle and late stage of industrialization, with slow development of energy-saving industries and alternative energy sources, high oil consumption per unit of GDP, high dependence on oil for economic growth, and weak ability to cope with the oil crisis. Therefore, the impact of high oil prices on developing countries may be even greater. International authoritative organizations in developed countries estimate that the impact of rising oil prices on the economic growth rate of developing countries is 0.5 times of the world average of 65,438+and 3 times that of developed countries.
(C) the impact on China's economy
China became a net oil importer on 1993. In recent years, China's dependence on foreign oil has increased year by year. In 20 10, China imported 239 million tons of crude oil, up 17% year-on-year, and its dependence on foreign oil increased by three percentage points year-on-year, exceeding 55%, making it the second largest oil importer and consumer after the United States. It is estimated that by 2020, the total oil consumption in China will reach about 600 million tons. By 2030, China will need to import 80% of its oil consumption. This shows that the oil security situation in China is not optimistic, and the price changes in the international oil market directly affect the domestic economic development in China, which is embodied in the following aspects.
The first is to increase inflation expectations. China is a big oil consumer. Affected by the rise in international crude oil and refined oil prices, the costs of related industries that use oil as energy and raw materials have risen, which has increased operating costs, led to the rise in service prices, and further affected the rise in consumer prices. At present, the inflation situation in China is still in a sensitive and critical period. In this case, the sustained high international oil prices put pressure on the price increase of upstream products, which strengthened inflation expectations. Studies by IEA, OECD and IMF show that if the international oil price rises by 10 USD a year, the inflation rate in China will rise by 0.8 percentage points. "Inflation" is the key word of 20 1 1 China economy. The trend of macro-control policies directly depends on the development of inflation situation, and the rise of international crude oil prices will increase the difficulty of macro-control.
The second is to slow down economic growth. Because the rise in international oil prices has a wide impact on the national economy, from production to consumption, from cost to price, from trade to investment, the rise in oil prices will bring adverse effects and slow down the economic growth. According to the forecast of the International Monetary Fund, every time the international oil price rises 10 USD/barrel, the economic growth rate in Asia will decrease by 0.8%. According to Morgan Stanley's research report in 2004, China's GDP will lose 0.06% every time the international crude oil price rises 1 USD/barrel.
The third is to narrow the trade surplus. From the perspective of imports, the higher the international oil price, the more oil imports and the greater the foreign exchange expenditure. China imports about $35 billion in foreign exchange every year. From the export point of view, the higher the oil price, the higher the production cost of downstream products, the lower the competitiveness of export products, and the export is greatly affected. From the transportation point of view, the higher the oil price, the higher the price of refined oil, the higher the transportation cost, and the higher the prices of means of production and consumer goods. These factors will lead to the reduction of China's trade surplus.
Fourth, the pressure on consumers has increased and the competitiveness of enterprises has declined. The rise of international oil price and the price of petroleum-related products has increased the cost of enterprises in a wider scope, which has brought different degrees of influence to transportation, metallurgy, petrochemical, light industry, fishery, agriculture and other related industries. These enterprises can only transfer the rising costs to downstream enterprises or final consumers, but it is difficult to transfer them to foreign countries, which will inevitably reduce the profits of the industry, increase the pressure on consumers, and even cause some enterprises to lose money, reduce their competitiveness and weaken the economic vitality of the whole society.
In addition, China failed to fully implement the international oil price mechanism, that is, to adjust domestic oil prices according to changes in international oil prices. On the one hand, if the increase of domestic refined oil prices can't keep up with the increase of international crude oil prices, resulting in industrial losses, we can only apply for financial subsidies, which may increase financial pressure. From 2005 to 2007, for three consecutive years, due to the sharp rise in international oil prices, the refining business suffered huge losses. Sinopec received subsidies of 654.38+0 billion yuan, 5 billion yuan and 654.38+0.23 billion yuan respectively, and PetroChina also disclosed in its 2008 annual report that it received state financial subsidies of 654.38+0.57 billion yuan that year. On the other hand, when the domestic oil price rose with the previous international oil price, the international oil price suddenly fell, and public opinion was dissatisfied with the failure of the domestic oil price policy to cut prices in time. Therefore, policy makers will struggle between financial pressure and social pressure.
Generally speaking, the rise of international oil price is not easy to hinder the economic development of China, but it is unfavorable to the national economy of China as a whole. If China's dependence on foreign oil continues to increase in the future, the adverse impact will be even greater. As for the extent of the impact, it depends on the extent and duration of the rise in international oil prices.
Three. Relevant countermeasures and suggestions
At present, the world economic structure is undergoing profound changes, and China's economic development is facing new opportunities and challenges. Standing at the starting point of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, we should adopt comprehensive supporting measures that take both long-term and short-term considerations in a more rational manner in the face of the continuous rise of international oil prices and China's increasing dependence on imported oil demand, and actively respond to the adverse impact of the rise in international oil prices on China's national economy.
In the short term, we should pay close attention to the changes of oil prices in the international market, control the transmission channels of products from outside to inside and from downstream to upstream, and control inflation expectations. First, improve the formation mechanism of refined oil prices and further control the impact of inflation. Considering the affordability of the oil industry and relevant parties, we should use more perfect subsidy policies and consumption tax levers to suppress the upward pressure of oil prices and reduce the burden on consumers. The second is to speed up the reform of resource tax and actively guide a more efficient oil consumption model. In accordance with the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference in February 20 10, we will actively and steadily promote the reform of resource product prices and environmental protection charges, further promote the improvement of the formation mechanism of refined oil prices, take effective measures to guide a more efficient oil consumption model, and promote the transformation to energy-saving and consumption-reducing development mode through fiscal and taxation reform. In addition, only in extraordinary times can the government consider forcibly separating China's oil market from the international market by administrative means, and stabilize domestic oil prices by price control and financial subsidies.
In the medium and long term, in addition to speeding up the transformation of economic development mode to reduce oil dependence, speeding up the construction of national oil reserve system, speeding up the construction of overseas crude oil production capacity, building diversified energy channels and transportation channels, and developing new and renewable energy sources, we should also actively participate in international energy cooperation. With the influence of the second and third oil crises, the international oil cooperation mechanism has been developed and continuously improved under the framework of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the International Energy Agency. It is an inevitable strategic choice for China to make full use of the multilateral cooperation mechanism of international energy to ensure the safety of oil supply. At present, facing the strong oil price shock, the most severe situation facing China is that there is "China demand" but there is no "China price". China needs to further strengthen international energy cooperation with OPEC 12 member countries, 28 oil consuming countries covered by the International Energy Agency, and emerging economies such as India and Brazil, participate in the formulation of a new global stable energy market mechanism, and improve the transparency of international oil prices and supply and demand.
We should make a sound of building a conservation-oriented society on the international stage, resolutely eliminate such erroneous remarks as "China should be held responsible for the rise in international oil prices", and point out that China's economic growth and oil reserves have not made many countries accept the situation of high oil prices. The rise of international oil prices is caused by many factors, and China is a victim of high oil prices rather than a producer. At the same time, we should be alert to the "oil blackmail" of some western countries, and hope that China will finally make concessions to the west in terms of RMB exchange rate appreciation because of the high import cost of oil and other resources and raw materials.
Learn from international practices, establish and improve the domestic oil futures trading market, avoid the risk of oil price fluctuation through forward contracts, and give full play to the demand advantages of oil consuming countries to influence the formation of international oil prices. China's oil industry should further enter the world oil market with various platforms and adhere to the road of independent development and multilateral cooperation.