From June 6th, 2008, China stock entered the second magnificent bull market with a cycle of more than 8 years. Its time span and spatial amplitude are unimaginable to ordinary people. I don't speculate on the specific space points, but it can be said that the points we have passed are only basic and we must step on them. I can't predict what the final space point will be after 8 years, and I believe no one can accurately predict it. From June 6, 2008 to February 6, 2008, the time span was about 1.5 years, with an increase of%. In such a short period of time, this range is not small, but its nature is summarized as a recovery increase. Why? You can carefully review the field situation since 1 year and a half.
The first stage: the short position ended and the stock tentatively rebounded slowly (June 2008 ~ June 2008 +065438+ 10).
The characteristic of this stage is that although the bear is over, people are still unwilling to believe that the cow has arrived. If it rises, it is still regarded as a rebound in the short position. Everything is hesitant and cautious, for fear of disturbing the sleeping big bear brother. Only a few prophets bravely entered, because the stock was too cheap at this time, really too cheap. Peanut, there may not be the same opportunity in ten years. ........................................................................................................................................
The second stage: waking up from a big dream (165438+1October to May).
The second stage is characterized by raising costs and getting rid of unreasonable areas with low valuation. There is nothing at this stage, but there are more and more people who understand and fewer and fewer people who doubt. Everyone knows that the opportunity has come, so let's talk about it quickly. The second stage of the market ended, and in early May, a wave of crazy small market was formed, and then there was a big adjustment …
The third stage: debut (August 2008 ~ February 2008)
From May to August 2008, the stock index began to shine in August 2008 after the second stage of thorough cleaning. Since August, under the strong pull of elephant stocks, the stock index has entered the main rising wave strongly. At this stage, the cows don't have time to go back to eat grass at all, and they have to pull up and pull up again, which makes people crazy. The sales department is crowded, and new investors open new accounts again and again. At this stage, as long as you make money by trading stocks, the stock index rises like a mad dog, so it is called crazy dog wave. However, no matter how powerful the power is, it is impossible for the stock index to rise forever, and the cows will always turn around and eat grass. During 654381October 30th-February 6th, bulls bowed their heads and the market plunged for nearly 6 days. The plunge caused by the skyrocketing has made many people unbearable, and it has also given investors a vivid lesson. Stocks are risky and need to be cautious when entering the market.
Over the past year and a half, although the market has gone through several stages, from the general trend, the annual stock index of Huogou basically rose unilaterally, and investors gained a lot. Although the stock index has risen very high, the trend has not changed. The continuous innovation of stock index has opened up the space for cattle, enhanced the confidence of investors, attracted a lot of incremental funds, and laid the foundation and foreshadowing for the next stage of market evolution.
2. Possible stock fluctuations in 2008.
The unfavorable factors of this indicator are:
1). The profit rate is too high: the average profit rate of stocks has now increased from about 1 5 times of/kloc-0 half a year ago to nearly 40 times now. No matter from which point of view, this data is "at this stage". From the perspective of sustainable development, there is no way out. China is an emerging market with rapid development, which is supported by macroeconomic fundamentals. Coupled with the appreciation of the currency, the profit rate can be overestimated appropriately, and the acceptable average profit rate fluctuation value can be considered as 20 times to 25 times (Europe and America 15 times), and at most it cannot be separated from 30 times. So high profit rate is a problem.
2) There are too many short-term profit-making disks: 1 year and a half, and the stock index is from point to surface. The rate of return on capital in this market is too high, which is basically profiteering. Generally, many people are extremely happy when the annual rate of return of funds is 15%. At present, the annual return rate of funds in this field exceeds 50%, which is abnormal. History tells us that the market will not make you so comfortable to make money, and the market will definitely let investors raise costs in their own way.
3). The market enters the stage of theme stocks: The general bull market's plate speculation is a general mode, starting with value investment, then spreading to the speculation of second-tier blue-chip stocks, then speculating on the plate with substantive themes, and finally entering the stage of garbage speculation. Now this field is basically going to the stage of crazy hype, no matter whether the news is true or not, let's talk about it first. Roughly looking at individual stocks, each stock has basically experienced a period of skyrocketing, so how much room for further growth? All these indicate that the market is coming to an end.
4). From the perspective of wave theory, the rising section from February 6, 2008 is very similar to the 5 waves in a slightly larger band. What's after 5 waves? It is an adjustment wave corresponding to a larger band.
5) According to Gann's time period, three to five weeks after the Spring Festival in 2008 is an extremely dangerous time window, which is the coincidence point of the main time period of sports and the sub-time period of small fluctuations. If it rises during this period, it will be more dangerous, which indicates that the time period will fall at the apex of space, indicating that the decline is inevitable.
Generally speaking, the rising power of the large-cap stock index is gradually weakening, the rising time is gradually shortening, the time and space for falling are increasing, and the driving structure for falling is stronger every time. The Shanghai Composite Index may reach the first high point after the Spring Festival in 3-5 weeks, and then make a large-scale adjustment. The first reference point for adjustment is the low point of the last plunge.
At the same time, what is the purpose of technical adjustment, in order to better rise next time? In the technical adjustment, we can wait for the profit rate to gradually keep up with the rise of the stock price, and form a fundamental support for the stock price. At the same time, in order to raise the cost of investors and digest the profit-making disk. That is what people often say, exchange time for space.
* Third, grasp the trend *
1. Raising interest rates will not change the trend of bull market.
The Bank of China decided to raise the benchmark interest rate of monetary deposits and loans of financial institutions from March 6, 2008. The benchmark interest rate for one-year deposits of financial institutions was raised by 0.27 percentage points, from the current 2.52% to 2.79%; The benchmark interest rate for one-year loans was raised by 0.27 percentage points from the current 6. 12% to 6.39%; The benchmark interest rates for other grades of deposits and loans have also been adjusted accordingly.
Raising interest rates is undoubtedly a negative for stocks, and it will indeed have a certain degree of impact on stocks, but the impact of this interest rate hike on stocks is not big enough to change the pattern of this bull market. Therefore, there is no need to raise interest rates to adjust the operating ideas of long-term capital investors.
The impact of previous interest rate hikes on stocks;
First rate hike: May 2008 15.
The Bank of China decided to raise the interest rate of money deposits and loans. The annual interest rates of time deposits of all grades increased by 2. 18 percentage points on average, and the interest rates of various loans increased by 0.82 percentage points on average. This interest rate hike caused the Shanghai Composite Index to drop 27.43 points on the first trading day.
Second rate hike: July 2008 1 1.
The central bank raised interest rates again, and the one-year time deposit rate was raised from 9. 18% on May 5, 1993 to 10.98%, with an increase of 19.6 1%. The first trading day fell by 23.05 points.
The two interest rate hikes in 2006 caused the Shanghai Composite Index to drop rapidly in the following three months, with a drop of 44.2%.
The third rate hike: 65438+2008129 October.
The one-year deposit and loan interest rate was raised by 0.27%. On the way down, the Shanghai Composite Index plunged 1.58% and closed at 10 on the same day. After several trading days of consolidation, there was a slight rebound, but it still failed to shake off the downward trend. On June 6, 2008, the Shanghai Composite Index fell below 1000, and 10 hit a multi-year low.
Fourth rate hike:17 March 2008.
The central bank decided to raise interest rates through loans. This means that for most people who buy houses and live in their own homes, the burden of repaying loans will increase by 5%, reaching 10%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.96% on the same day and 1.29% the next day. After a slight rebound, the Shanghai Composite Index fell to .23.
Fifth rate hike: April 28, 2008
On April 28th, 2008, the loan interest rate of financial institutions was raised by 0.27 percentage point, from the current 5.58% to 5.85%. On 28th, the Shanghai Composite Index opened 14 points lower, the highest, and closed up 23 points, up 1.66%. After that, it still maintained an upward trend, and launched a wave of short-selling in May, which reached its highest point on July 5, 2008.
In-,the United States experienced several interest rate hikes, but US stocks rose all the way from point to point, with an increase of as high as%, leaving the cattle that had grown for five years.
To sum up, in the first four interest rate hikes, due to the relatively large dominant share, it will inevitably have a great impact on the market. At the same time, the shares have not been reformed, and big values such as ICBC and BOC have not been introduced. But now, in addition to the change in value, the key is that investors have gradually adapted to raising interest rates. Judging from the interest rate hike last year, the stock market has undergone fundamental changes. Raising interest rates is no longer a poison, but a good medicine to promote the healthy development of the stock market. Some people don't understand the real meaning and purpose of raising interest rates and will blindly follow suit. In fact, the culprit of the traditional market crash is largely because of panic, so the mentality of investors is the key.
2. The launch date of stock index futures is the time of deep adjustment of A shares.
Since everything must come to an end, there will be no cows in running all the way. People are concerned about when the stock will adjust. When will it end? This will start with the engine of the cow. I began to think about the types of cattle in China in 2008, so on May 19, 2008, I worked overtime to write "Typical Start of Type Cattle", which was published on the front page of china securities journal. In my opinion, the engine of China cattle used to be, no money, no cattle. This is what people often call "policy". High-speed economic growth will inevitably generate demand for securitization, so the stock dynamics will reflect the economic trend in advance, which is the so-called "barometer" mechanism. However, China's rapid economic growth is not accompanied by a corresponding rise in stocks, but by a five-year bear market, which has been puzzling investors in China stock market. In fact, the reason is simple, that is, the problem between the driver and the engine. As a driver, China shared that this car was made with an old diesel engine. The investor is not a driver, so I can't think of changing the engine. They just want to "ride" and don't want to drive, so no one will drive when they get off. In the first half of 2008, this round of cattle was started once. The driver wanted the car to leave the factory, but no one took it over. When the driver got off the bus, the car stalled. So the stock market in 2008 was like an emergency landing after the plane took off. The management began to look for new driving forces and began the reform of non-tradable shares. The share-trading reform has solved two problems: the first is to solve the problem of "driver" and the second is to solve the problem of stock engine. There are three motives for institutional investors to enter the market. The first motive is the securitization of China's economic growth, and then they profit from the securitization process; The second motivation is to create a new game in the stock market and then make a profit in the big merger; The third motivation is to turn enterprises into commodities and then make profits in the market of "enterprise commodities". Behind the whole circulation field is the commercialization of enterprises, behind the commercialization of enterprises is the securitization of finance, and behind the securitization of finance is the industrialization of securities market. All three are indispensable, which constitutes the foundation of this cow, so this year, China's "invisible cow" surfaced.
The difference between behavioral economics and theoretical economics is just like the difference between Catholicism and religion. Adam Smith's field definition, like the Catholic God, is out of reach in space. The definition of Nash equilibrium field has pulled God off the altar and turned it into a game between parties. Therefore, in the field of behavioral economics, drivers can change, and so can their behaviors. When the driving force changes from institutional investors, the new driving force will change the engine and the rules of the game will also change. Because when you are a driver, the first principle of stocks is stability; In the era when institutions are drivers, the origin of stocks is volatility. The reason for the fluctuation sometimes comes from the square, sometimes from the square, just like the trajectory of a car. The trend lies in the direction of the road and the fluctuation lies in the driver's driving. From this principle, the time and depth of stock adjustment mainly depend on the behavior of investment institutions. Some institutions predict that next year will be "rising at the beginning of the year, adjusting in the middle of the year and rising at the end of the year", but if we want to specify the engine of this round of cattle, we will find that the greater probability of stock adjustment will occur at the beginning of the year, or more accurately, when stock index futures are launched.
I define one of the driving forces of this bull market as "effect", that is, OTC investment institutions are bull markets driven by "new" stocks. It turns out that the newcomers outside the venue are institutions, and many of them are overseas institutions or fund managers trained by overseas institutions. Institutional investors have a professional habit of "dressing up" every time they publish quarterly reports, so that investors, bosses or shareholders can appreciate their foresight. Therefore, the closer to the end of the year, the higher the rise, because fund managers are chasing up to cover their positions. China's stock has become the highest rising stock in the world this year. If any fund manager has not used up his investment quota in China at the end of the year and has not held the China blue chip with the highest increase this year, it means that you have not been optimistic about the market. Because of this pressure, everyone will use up the quota before the end of the year, so the better the blue chip rises, the better the stock will be.
The conclusion of this mechanism is that after the end of each year, institutions will push up the market first and wait for an opportunity to sell. The work of "decorating the window" has been completed, so there is no need to continue "decorating". This kind of professional habit will cause a small adjustment in the market. If there are safe-haven investment tools in the market, there will be a big callback, because institutions can lay out the market first and then start selling. This hedging transaction can make the fund's losses in the stock swap be hedged by the gains in the derivatives market, so that the fund's net value will not fall sharply in the process of fund swap. Therefore, in addition to the fundamental factors, we should be cautious in stock adjustment from the behavioral aspect: look at the "window period" of minor; See "Cang" in major.
This mechanism tells everyone that most of the adjustments after "decorating the window" are minor adjustments. However, after the introduction of stock index futures, because institutions can use derivatives to hedge the losses of stocks, there may be a large callback. Large-scale correction has dual functions, one of which is to adjust the position of the mechanism. In the process of position adjustment, the net book value will not change much due to the income of derivative investment hedging losses, but the available cash will increase. The second is the "shock warehouse" of retail investors. When the correction exceeds a certain point, retail investors will become frightened. Therefore, when retail investors follow suit, they create opportunities for institutions. Therefore, the sale and hedging of derivatives by institutions will create new investment opportunities in the market.
The game between institutions and retail investors is an eternal theme. Everyone will say that investors should be protected, but what kind of investors should be protected? Is it an institution or a retail investor? They all have accounts. The protection of retail investors can only be realized from the aspects of system, procedure and information disclosure, while the new products on the market are basically aimed at institutional investors. Therefore, in the process of product innovation, protecting investors naturally tends to protect institutional investors. The opening of derivatives market and the introduction of stock index futures are actually mainly to provide new hedging tools for protecting institutional investors.
So I think there may be some adjustment after "decorating the window" early next year. However, after the introduction of stock index futures, the market may undergo deep adjustment. As long as the adjustment of cattle does not fall below the psychological line of 20%, the tone of cattle still exists, and the institution will continue to launch a new round of promotion. This is my view on the stock adjustment mechanism next year.
The China Stock Exchange has changed its drive, the new drive has changed its engine, and the market has produced a new "accelerator" from the fundamentals and policies:
The first is currency appreciation. It has risen by 3% this year, and experts predict that the increase will exceed 5% next year, so the expectation of currency appreciation will continue to improve;
The second is profit. It is expected that the profit will greatly exceed expectations next year, which is the internal driving force and fundamental factor of China's economic growth securitization;
The third is the return of "invisible income". When the interests of management are out of touch with the stock price, there are often three exports of operating cash flow in the world: one is the total export flow; An export flow association; An outlet flows upward. Therefore, the management in the world should consider profit diversion while making money, and balance different stakeholders in three pockets through profit diversion. Big pockets usually belong to major shareholders, and the interests of major shareholders are linked to the hat of the upper management. Small pockets belong to management and affiliated institutions, and the cash flow of small pockets is related to the indirect interests of management and affiliated institutions, and also to whether the world can continue to make profits. So after taking care of both ends, the rest flows into the pocket on the table. When such a mechanism exists, a considerable part of the profits actually created in the world will flow out. However, after the share-trading reform, three factors will change the above mechanism: first, the management's equity incentive will be launched next year, and the pilot will begin next year, and the upper management will be prepared to accumulate distributable profits; The second is the improvement of governance level and transparency. Because there are powerful investment institutions entering the market, institutional people do not participate in management, but the function of supervision and management has been strengthened, so the three pockets are not so easy to adjust casually; Third, new accounting standards and new evaluation methods. Value assessment will gradually replace the original net worth assessment. The new accounting system and new assessment methods will also make the cash flow return to A shares, and the unexpected profits will drive the stock price to rise further.
The fourth is tax reform. Tax system reform has been put on the agenda, and "two taxes in one" will solve a major problem in China's enterprise system. In order to open to the outside world, we have implemented a new tax policy for foreign-funded enterprises (wholly foreign-owned, Sino-foreign joint ventures and Sino-foreign cooperation). In addition to "two exemptions and three reductions or three exemptions and five reductions", foreign capital actually enjoys a lot, and the actual tax paid is only about half of that of domestic enterprises on average. The merger of the two taxes and the tax reduction after the merger of the two taxes are estimated to reduce the new unified tax rate by about a quarter. That is to say, at the original profit level, the tax reform will increase the global profit by 8%, reaching 10%, which will directly affect the China A-share market, which is still dominated by domestic state-owned enterprises, and will also encourage foreign investors to participate in China and promote the diversification of the equity structure of the A-share market.
The fifth is the opening of the securities market. The opening of the A-share market is also a game between the state and multinational companies, which leads to the exclusion of small and medium-sized enterprises from the China market. The FII policy and other policies open to foreign institutional investors are all formulated under the influence of the world's top banks. Take FII as an example. Neither Hong Kong nor Nuoda meets the requirements for applying for FII quota. Large multinational financial institutions control China's opening to the outside world, and this situation will improve next year. I predict that the FII application threshold will be lowered next year, the financial market will be further opened, and even the hot money that sneaked into the China market through import and export quotations may become new institutional investors.
The sixth is the supervision of institutional investment. At present, in addition to funds, if the general enterprise takes investing in stocks as one of its main businesses, it is best to use the "head account" for investment. Because compared with natural person's investment, legal person's return on investment is subject to various taxes besides the advantages of legal person's limited liability. China's current tax system actually prevents institutions from investing in securities. Many institutions invest behind natural persons, on the one hand for invisibility, and on the other hand for tax evasion. Taxation on institutional investment income not only puzzles the standardization of institutional investment, but also hinders the issuance and trading of innovative products such as asset securitization and trust.
The seventh is the integration of A+H. As more and more blue-chip stocks and H-shares "go home", A+H mode will gradually lead to the integration of A-share market and Hong Kong market, and then raise the issue of B-share market withdrawing from the historical stage. The closure of the B-share market should learn from the experience of non-tradable shares reform, and be solved by means of agreement repurchase, privatization retreat or quasi-FII, so as to strengthen the integration between A-shares and H-shares.
Generally speaking, from the macro, micro, domestic, international, tax reform and enterprise system reform and other factors, it is very strong that the stock market will continue to improve next year, and the first decline in the growth rate of savings this year is only the beginning, which is the beginning of large-scale investment in stocks. Saving is like water storage, and investment is like flood discharge. The reform of opening up the automatic inflow of savings funds into the securities market has just begun.
3. Grasp the trend
There are many ways to judge the trend, such as Dow theory, wave theory, moving average theory, and even as simple as putting a ruler on the chart. People have different ideas about how to grasp the trend and make it work for themselves. In fact, the trend is very simple, which can be described as: bulls are long and bears are short. It's easier said than done. You can't blame yourself, and you can't blame others. In fact, this is determined by human nature. Many weaknesses of human nature come from nature, such as fear, laziness, impulsiveness and greed. And many excellent qualities need to be cultivated and experienced, which leads to people's inability to integrate knowledge and practice. When reading stock reviews, stock reviewers usually tell the reasons for being bearish and point out the future support or resistance. They also kindly suggested that the support should be low and the rebound should be low, and the resistance should be reduced. The courage of these gentlemen is commendable, but we can't agree with them. If you try to rebound in an empty position, you may be submerged in a downward waterfall. Short in the bull market, I am afraid I will step on a helicopter. The trend is invincible. Can the resistance support during these trend movements compete with the trend? The trend is so simple, you only need to have simple thinking to have simple actions, but in this field, simple actions are often the most irresistible. On the market side, the deep decline is brewing a rebound; More rises are brewing down. But how many people can grasp this shot? There is a saying: as long as there are people in the venue who are against the trend, then the trend will not end. In the process of the trend, how many "smart people" who dare to be the first in the world are ruthlessly eliminated by the field. The trend can be determined. The reason why so many people are still losing money is because they know the direction of the trend, but because of greed and fear, or because they think they are smarter than the field, they unconsciously choose to compete with the trend; Second, I don't know what the trend is, and I walk on the court completely by feeling. Therefore, when the trend is clear, when the market is in full swing, when you know and understand, it will be difficult for you to make money, and it is not too late to do it again. The important thing is that you should be out when you are confused, not in. You can't bet your own money on your confusion. It's no use being smart. The key is to be a moneymaker.