The main factor that determines the price of pork is the relationship between supply and demand, and the listing of pig futures will not directly affect the fundamentals of supply and demand of pigs. At present, the demand for pork in China is relatively stable. However, due to the COVID-19 epidemic, breeding profits, policy orientation and other factors, the supply will change, thus changing the fundamentals of domestic pork supply and demand and ultimately determining the trend of pork prices.
So, what is the current domestic pork supply and price situation? At present, China's pig production has obviously picked up, but the overall supply is still in a tight state.
According to the monitoring data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, from August to June, 2020, 165438+ 10, the national pig slaughter increased month by month. However, from June 65438+ 10 to June 165438+ 10 in 2020, the designated slaughtering enterprises slaughtered a total of141980,000 pigs, down 19.6% year-on-year. Although the supply has not fully recovered to the perennial level, the central reserve meat has increased significantly. In June 2020, 5438+ 10 and June 5438+065438+ 10, frozen pork was not put in, and it was put in 38 times in the whole year, totaling 670,000 tons. Of which 20066 tons were put into production on February 30th, 1 124 1 ton. 202 1, 1, and 20,000 tons of frozen pork were put in. (Source: China Economic Net)
Recently, due to the seasonal recovery of consumption and the blocked circulation of frozen products, the national pork price has increased significantly. In terms of weekly prices, the market prices of live pigs and pork began to rise from the fourth week of June 1 1 and the first week of February 1 in 2020, rising for six weeks and five weeks respectively. In the last week of June 5438+February, 2020, the national average price of live pigs per kilogram was 34.8 yuan, up by 17.8% and 3% year-on-year. The price of pork was 5 1.65 yuan per kilogram, with a cumulative increase of 12.8%, with a slight increase of 0.8% year-on-year.
The trend of the national pig price after the official listing of live pig futures in 6543810.8 can be analyzed from both supply and demand. From the consumption point of view, the Spring Festival is the traditional consumption peak season, but the rise of pig price since 65438+February 2020 has restrained some consumer demand. In terms of supply, as of June 2020 165438+ 10, the number of fertile sows increased for six consecutive months, and the number of live pigs increased for five consecutive months. The Spring Festival is the peak of slaughter, and it is expected that the supply will be significantly improved with the slaughter of pigs in the early stage. Based on the comprehensive judgment, it is estimated that the pig price in 20021Spring Festival is close to the level of last year's Spring Festival, and there is limited room for growth.
Although the listing of pig futures will not directly affect the fundamentals of domestic pig supply and demand, futures hedging provides a channel for enterprises in the industrial chain such as breeding, slaughtering and trade to avoid price risks and maintain and increase value. The so-called futures hedging means that operators use futures contracts as a temporary substitute for buying and selling goods in the spot market in the future, conduct trading operations in advance, lock prices in advance, and avoid the risk of large fluctuations in market prices. Therefore, in order to prevent the risk brought by the drop of spot price, spot pig enterprises will short pig futures in the futures market to lock in profits, which is also a factor for the continuous decline of pig futures for many days. It is reported that Mu Yuan, Wen's, Zhengbang Technology, New Hope, etc., the leading domestic pig breeding enterprises, will all enter the market to participate in the pig futures delivery business.
The breeding cycle of pigs is relatively long, and it usually takes about 10 months from sow conception to piglet growth and slaughter. In the long breeding cycle, many aspects such as epidemic disease, supply and demand, feed price and so on are full of uncertainties, which may lead to a large deviation between the future pig price and the expected one. With the help of the tool of live pig futures, when the price of live pig futures is moderate, aquaculture enterprises can pre-sell live pig futures equal to their future slaughter in the futures market and lock in profits in advance. At the same time, pig futures can also help the slaughtering and processing links to buy in advance to prevent the irrational rise of pig prices in the future.