It will be 1 1 month in half a month, so let's analyze the trends of pig price, egg price, chicken price and food price in 1 1 month and 65438+February.
Pig price
In recent days, the price of pigs has soared again, with the biggest increase of 1 yuan per day. After this increase, the national average price of live pigs has risen to 14. 14 yuan.
There are two opinions about the pig price of 5438+0 1 in June and 1 in February. The optimistic view is that at present, the national pig production capacity is still at a high level, superimposed fertilizers will be released one after another, and the pig price is likely to continue to rise within two months at the end of the year.
Pessimistic view holds that although the peak of pork consumption will be ushered in the fourth quarter, it is difficult to make a higher breakthrough in pig price under the influence of the continuous release of large chemical fertilizers and the regulation of higher authorities.
Next, for the supply side, there are mainly several situations:
In June, 5438+0, July and August, the second fattening feed will be released one after another to ease the supply pressure of pigs.
2. Reserve pork will not stop for the time being.
3. Frozen meat hoarded by butchers and traders will also enter the market at a faster speed.
4. Many pig farms will choose to slaughter before the year because they are worried that the price of pigs will fall after the year.
Although the price of pigs is rising, the number of fertile sows in China has been surplus, which ensures the supply of pork.
On the demand side, first of all, the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak of pork in China.
Secondly, with the stability of the epidemic situation in various places, pork is expected to usher in a wave of retaliatory consumption.
Finally, the rising prices of chicken, beef and mutton, eggs and vegetables will help maintain the demand for pork.
Generally speaking, although the supply of pork will increase with the second fattening, from the current market point of view, the growth rate of demand side will be significantly higher than that of supply side. It is estimated that there is still room for pig prices to rise in 1 1 and 65438+2 months.
Egg price
Because the production capacity of laying hens is at a low level, coupled with the recent epidemic situation, traders and end families have a certain demand for hoarding goods, which has prompted the recent increase in egg prices.
In the next two months, in terms of supply:
1. The production capacity of laying hens continues to be weak and it is difficult to recover in a short time.
2. Compared with the high temperature season, the egg laying rate in winter will increase.
At present, the inventory at all levels is very low, which is only enough for one day from the market.
4. The unstable epidemic situation will affect the normal transportation of eggs.
On the demand side, traders' acceptance of high-priced eggs is higher than before, and the demand for eggs will increase as the temperature drops.
The rising prices of pork and vegetables have increased consumers' acceptance of high-priced eggs.
Generally speaking, I'm afraid the price of eggs will fall for a while at the end of 10 and the beginning of10, but it's hard to change the situation that eggs are in short supply. Even if the price of eggs falls, it is only a short-term downward adjustment, and will eventually remain at a relatively high level, especially in late February and 10 in early October.
Chicken price
The price of broilers has gone up for more than four months. At first, the main reason for the increase was the decline in domestic broiler production capacity and the tight supply of chicken.
The price of chicken has been rising continuously, on the one hand, it benefits from the increase of breeding cost brought by the increase of feed price, on the other hand, it benefits from the stimulation of the increase of pig price. In addition, the serious epidemic situation of bird flu abroad has affected the introduction of overseas chickens, which in turn has affected the slaughter of commercial broilers.
For the chicken price in the next two months, from the supply side: 1, the problem of foreign introduction has not been effectively solved, and the impact on the production of commercial chicken substitutes is still there.
2. From June 5438 to August 2022, our ancestral breeders decreased by 39.438+0% month-on-month, which affected the slaughter of broilers in the fourth quarter.
From the demand side, the continuous rise in pork prices helps to drive the demand for chicken, and the fourth quarter itself is the peak of meat demand.
Therefore, from the perspective of supply and demand, the price of chicken is pointing to an increase. Considering the rising price of soybean meal, high price of corn and the increase of breeding cost, the price of chicken is still easy to rise but difficult to fall.
Food price
Grain prices make us pay attention to wheat and corn. Let's start with wheat. Recently, the price of wheat has risen, and some flour enterprises have quoted more than 1.6 yuan. This is mainly due to the following two reasons: First, grassroots farmers are unwilling to sell at high prices.
Second, traders will focus on corn, wheat will be left out in the cold, and the market turnover will decrease.
Enterprises are eager to replenish their stocks and can only raise prices and collect grain.
Follow-up wheat price, supply side: this year's wheat yield is high, and there is no problem in supply theory, but the enthusiasm of grass-roots farmers to sell grain and the cost of traders to open positions when new grain is listed have great influence on wheat supply.
In addition, imported wheat is also affected by the recent increase in international wheat prices.
Demand side: the fourth quarter is the peak season of traditional flour demand, but the complete withdrawal of wheat from feeding is not good for wheat demand.
On the whole, there is no basis for sustained price increases in wheat. Average price 1.6 yuan may be a threshold, and it is difficult to go up or down.
Let's talk about corn When the new grain comes on the market, the corn suddenly rises and falls, which is a bit confusing. In fact, it is very clear when sorting out.
On the supply side, although the debate on increasing production and reducing production has stopped, the listing of new grain is bound to increase supply, wheat will withdraw from the demand for feed, and although the amount of imported corn has increased, it is still at a low level.
On the demand side, the increase of pig price and chicken price is helpful to the recovery of breeding capacity, and deep processing enterprises will also increase the operating rate with the increase of demand for deep processing products such as starch.
Based on comprehensive analysis, the subsequent corn price will drop first and then rise.