1. consumption structure of silver

Silver has good toughness and ductility, good electrothermal conductivity, high photosensitivity and reflectivity, which is irreplaceable in most application fields. From the table 1- 1-3, it can be seen that compared with 2007, the consumption of main application areas of silver in 2008 was decreasing, and the reduced share was all increased in investment. Affected by the financial crisis, the silver industry will be reduced to 39% and the investment will be increased to 26% in 2009.

Table 1- 1-3 List of World Silver Applications (unit:%)

(Source: World Silver Yearbook 2009)

The application of silver in China is generally increasing, with an increase of 25% in 2008 compared with 2007. In 2008, the consumption structure of silver was 40% in electronic appliance industry, 27% in silver-based alloy and solder, 4% in photosensitive material industry, 7% in silver coins and silver badges, 0/8% in silver handicrafts and jewelry, and 4% in other fields such as antibacterial.

Table 1- 1-4 List of silver application fields in China (unit: tons)

(Source: Proceedings of the 8 th China International Silver Conference)

In recent years, the consumption of silver in China is far below the output, and the growth of silver consumption has been in a relatively backward situation. In 2006, the consumption of silver in China domestic market was only over 3,000 tons, which was less than 40% of the silver production. In 2008, the domestic silver market in China consumed about 4,500 tons of silver, accounting for about 47% of the silver production.

2. Silver market supply

Silver production mainly comes from the mining of independent silver mines, the by-products of gold, copper, lead and zinc smelting and the recycling of waste materials, such as photography. In 2008, the output of silver in China was 9,587 tons, and the total supply of silver in the world was 27,633 tons. China's silver production accounts for 34.69% of the world's total silver supply. In 2008, the world silver supply was zero, and the silver production in China increased by 5.45% year-on-year. From June 5438 to September 2009, the cumulative output of silver in China was 7,552 tons, up 5.74% year-on-year. Data show that China is not only the world's largest producer of silver, but also one of the few countries that maintain rapid growth.

Table 1- 1-5 List of Silver Market Supply

(Source: World Silver Yearbook 2009 and Proceedings of the 8th China International Silver Conference)

3. China silver export volume

In 2000, the export of silver industry in China was subject to quota management. At that time, there were only two enterprises with a quota of 280 tons. Since then, China's silver export trade has achieved rapid growth. Since July 1 day, 2007, the state has reduced the export tax rebate rate of silver from 13% to 5%, and the export volume of silver in China has dropped significantly. In 2008, the export quota of silver was 4,800 tons, and the actual export was 4,043 tons, which was 10% lower than that in 2007. Compared with 2007, the export volume to China, Hongkong, India and Japan decreased significantly in 2008, while the export volume to Britain, Thailand and Singapore increased. From June to September 2009, 2,676 tons of silver ingots were exported.

Table 1- 1-6 Overview of Silver Export in China

(Source: Annual Announcement of Export Quota of Industrial Products of Ministry of Commerce)

China's silver jewelry is mainly exported to Europe, America, Japan, South Korea and other countries. Affected by the financial crisis, from the second half of 2008 to the first half of 2009, China's production enterprises mainly processing silver jewelry encountered certain difficulties and reduced orders. In 2008, China exported 499.23 tons of silver jewelry and parts, down 16% compared with 2007. From June 2008 to September 2009, China exported 308 tons of silver ornaments and parts. Compared with 2008, it decreased by 13.45%.

2009 China Jewelry and Jade Jewelry Guide

4. Silver Jewelry Market in China

In 2008, the global demand for silver jewelry was about 4,923 tons, down 3.2% year-on-year, and the demand for silverware manufacturing was about 1.783 tons, down 2.5% year-on-year. Among them, Italy and Thailand saw a big drop, while China, Indian and Russian increased their demand. In 2008, the consumption of silver craft products and jewelry in China was about 800 tons, which was 1 1% higher than that in 2007. The main features are as follows:

4. 1 There are about 300 silver craft products and jewelry production enterprises in China, mainly concentrated in Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Panyu, Dongguan, Haifeng, Putian Xiuyu and other places, among which dozens of enterprises use more than several tons of silver annually. In Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Tibet, Hunan and other ethnic minority areas, silverware crafts and jewelry processing industries are mainly family workshops. Generally speaking, there is a lack of leading enterprises and brand enterprises.

4.2 The silver jewelry market has great development potential. First of all, the price advantage of silver in precious metal jewelry products is obvious, and it has more advantages and potential as the base of colored gems, pearls, semi-precious stones and artificial products. Secondly, the fashion and diversity of silver jewelry styles are unmatched by other jewelry. Furthermore, the special cultural attributes of silver ornaments by ethnic minorities will not only increase the use of silver in national costumes, but also drive some consumers' demand for silver ornaments.

4.3 Consumers' consumption habits of silver jewelry are quietly changing. The price is not expensive, but also fashionable. Among young people, silver ornaments are the best gifts for romantic girls. Even the way to buy gifts is very fashionable, which is the channel of the network. Therefore, in the development of jewelry e-commerce market, the sales of silver jewelry may be second only to diamonds.

5. Silver investment market in China.

In 2008, the world demand for silver coins and commemorative medallions was about 20 19 tons, an increase of more than 63% year-on-year. Among them, the demand in the United States is 609 tons, twice that in 2007. In the first quarter of 2009, the output of silver coins in American mint increased by 70% year-on-year, and the sales of silver coins and gold bars in major countries such as Canada, Switzerland, Germany and Austria increased.

The sales of silver coins and medals in China also increased rapidly, about 37 tons in 2000 and 87 tons in 2008, an increase of 7.7% over 2007. Silver coins, silver medals and commemorative silver bars are regarded as investment products by consumers, and most of them think that their advantages are not strong. The main reasons are:

(1) has a higher premium than silver raw materials. These products are generally 50% ~ 200% higher than silver raw materials.

(2) The product repurchase channels are not smooth enough. If these products are repurchased, the general price will be 20% ~ 40% lower than the material value.

Investing in silver bars refers to investing in silver bars for the purpose of appreciation, mainly including spot silver bars issued by Huatong Platinum and Silver Market, material silver bars cast by member units of Gold Exchange and Baoquan savings silver bars. Only the weight unit and the publisher's name are engraved on the appearance. The main features are as follows:

(1) The fluctuation frequency of silver price is high and the amplitude is large, so short-term investment is more suitable.

(2) The sharp rise and fall of silver price makes silver investment have the characteristics of high risk and high return compared with gold investment.

(3) The supply of silver exceeds demand, and the monetary property of silver is weak, so it is not suitable for long-term investment.

From 1 to 10 in 2009, the Shanghai Gold Exchange traded silver10,205.70 tons, a sharp increase of 203.78%. The turnover was 34.407 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 180. 14%. Due to the opening of personal silver business in April, commercial banks attracted a large number of investors with the advantages of low threshold and large price fluctuation, and silver trading was extremely active. The average daily trading volume of personal silver business increased rapidly from 27 tons in April 2009 to 44 tons in June, 5438+0 ~ 1, and the cumulative personal silver business turnover was 1783.50 tons. Compared with a year ago, the silver investment market is really hot.

After a period of ups and downs and baptism in the philatelic market, stock market, real estate market and Pu 'er tea market, investors and speculators may understand or be confused, but in short, they are more rational. The frequency and amplitude of silver price fluctuation determine investment enthusiasm, but through the analysis of supply and demand and main uses of silver market, rational investment should be conducive to risk control.

Figure 1- 1-8 Daily price change curve of silver in London in recent two years.

(Source: www.kitco.cn)