It can be described by the mood of pig farmers at present. In just a few months, the price of pigs has "fallen sharply" from a height.
If you say fall, forget it. You fell too hard. One day, the pig price of 1 yuan/kg fell, and the pig price of 14 provinces and cities directly fell to "10 prefix", and finally fell to "single digits", which was a bit too much.
Many farmers are patting their thighs again, earning a few hundred dollars less at one end, and the second fattening is speechless. I didn't copy the bottom this time, and I was' copied home'. It's really hard to say
Talking too much is all tears, and all complaints and complaints are of no help. Everything is your own action, whether you earn or lose. What is more important is to learn lessons and sum up experience, and don't take this old road again.
Here comes the problem. There must be a reason why pig prices will plummet wildly. Indeed, the pig price will not plummet for no reason, but it will be boosted by various negative factors. The following are the reasons for the "collapse" of pig prices.
First, a number of pig enterprises have recently increased the slaughter of pigs.
It can be described as "success is Xiao He, failure is me". China's scale-up process is accelerating unprecedentedly, and its influence on the market is also increasing. For listed pig enterprises, performance and data determine their performance in the capital market.
So 165438+ 10 and 65438+February will see the slaughter peak. According to the data reference, the pig slaughter plan of sample enterprises in 165438+ 10 increased by 6.86% month-on-month, that is, the total pig slaughter of large pig enterprises increased by 7% month-on-month.
In addition, at present, there are indeed many pigs in the hands of group pig farms, and the heavy volume of group pig farms will inevitably have a greater impact on the trend of pig prices.
Near the end of the month, the group pig farm still maintained a strong slaughter momentum. In addition to working hard to complete the annual slaughter task, some group pig farms are not optimistic about the market price of live pigs, and want to use high prices to slaughter in time and lock in profits.
Second, the pig price fell below the "psychological defense line" of farmers, and the panic was heavier.
A month ago, the pig price was 14 yuan, and a few days ago it was 12 yuan. Now, the sudden demand for "10" has left many farmers with no place to stand.
The era of 12 yuan has certain symbolic significance in the eyes of many farmers, which also means that the shortage of live pigs has become a thing of the past.
Once the farmers think that the pig price has entered the downward cycle, the current pig slaughter weight is at a high level, and pig enterprises are scrambling to speed up the slaughter, which will inevitably affect the mood of farmers.
Most of the pigs in the previous period were sold before the Spring Festival, which made everyone lack confidence in the market outlook. If they can't sell it, their profits will go up in smoke, leading to a "massive plunge" in pig prices after continuous decline.
Third, the recent pig futures have reached a low level since mid-June.
Since June 165438+ 10, the domestic pig market price has almost continued to fall, the profit of the breeding end has also shrunk dramatically, and the main contract of pig futures has also fallen sharply.
165438+1On October 23rd, live pigs led the decline in the domestic futures market, and the main contract fell by 3.44% in a single day to close at 20 195 yuan/ton, which was nearly 17% lower than the staged high of 24,300 yuan/ton in mid-June.
Fourthly, the data predicts that the pork supply in February may increase significantly from 1 1 to 65438+February.
Over the years, the consumption of pork will increase at the end of the year, which can be seen from the change of slaughter volume in slaughterhouses.
According to Zhuo Chuang information monitoring, the average daily slaughter of key slaughter enterprises in 2018-2021-kloc-0/2 increased by 9.56% compared with that in August-10, which means that it is 165438 on the whole.
According to Zhuo Chuang Information Monitoring, it is estimated that the monthly pork supply this year will be 1 1- 12. The theoretical supply may exceed 26%-10 compared with the average supply in August.
Fifth, the consumer side is sluggish, and the signs of difficulty in the peak season are obvious.
At present, the temperature is high in many places in the south, and the demand for bacon is slow to start. Compared with previous years, the phenomenon of bacon shrinking is obvious, and the demand for big pigs is limited.
Under the influence of the "mask problem", the consumption loss caused by the closed control area is irreparable, and it also affects the income of residents. In the context of high pork prices, this is also unfavorable for pork consumption.
On the whole, it is expected that the consumption in the pork market will not increase substantially, and the market lacks confidence in the overall consumption prospect in the peak season, which in turn restricts the pig price.
Sixth, the official "signals" one after another, and the regulatory policies are relatively clear.
The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has indicated that it will closely collect the market dynamics of live pigs, continue to put central pork reserves at an appropriate time, and further increase the efforts when necessary to guide all localities to put local reserves simultaneously.
At the same time, we will continue to strengthen market supervision with relevant departments, maintain normal market order, and promote the return of pig prices to a reasonable range as soon as possible.
Generally speaking, the price decline of live pigs will slow down, but the overall trend may continue to be weak, mainly because pork consumption is less than expected now.
Although everyone is looking forward to the consumption peak before the Spring Festival, which can raise the price of pigs, I am afraid it is difficult to really achieve it. Based on the previous "secondary fattening", the pressure is serious and the supply end is greatly increased. It is expected that the short-term pig price will continue to "weakly fluctuate", focusing on the slaughter and trading of pigs in pig enterprises within the group and the changes in bacon consumption.
According to the monitoring of the pig price system, among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 0, fell by 26 and fell by 0, and the falling areas accounted for 100% of all the monitored areas.
The lowest average price of live pigs monitored in China is 10.99 yuan/kg, and the highest average price of live pigs is1.30 yuan/kg. The overall average price of live pigs is1.15 yuan/kg, which is lower than the national average price of live pigs yesterday.1kg.
Judging from the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises, the procurement difficulty of slaughter enterprises in the north is still weak, and the price of pigs has fallen many times. The enthusiasm for selling pigs in some parts of Northeast China is not strong. Due to the "mask problem", the price difference between the producing area and the selling area in Northeast China is obvious.
Traders in leading groups are generally enthusiastic about bidding, and the price of pigs in group pig farms has a strong downward trend. The price of pigs in parts of northern China dropped by 1.0-2.0 yuan/kg, and the drop was still significant.
The ex-factory price of white-striped pigs in slaughter enterprises in Northeast China decreased by 1.500 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price of white-striped pigs in slaughter enterprises in Shandong Province decreased by 1.200 yuan/ton, and the orders of some enterprises in Northeast China stabilized.
Forecast of pig price trend tomorrow: Based on the analysis of recent pig market factors, it is expected that the pig price will fall on a large scale tomorrow, but the decline will be weakened, focusing on the listing and trading volume of pigs in the pig farms of key purchasing and storage groups.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the pig market, grasp the market dynamics, collect and share, and raise pigs to make a fortune.