Introduction New Year’s Day has arrived, and 2022 has officially turned over, and the Spring Festival is gradually approaching. In the domestic pig, egg and soybean meal markets, the market has been ups and downs recently. Among them, pig prices have shown a trend of high-frequency fluctuations. With the arrival of the New Year's Day holiday, pig prices bucked the trend and fell. In the egg market, egg prices counterattacked, with prices showing an oversold and rising trend. The market is expected to recover further.
In the soybean meal market, the soybean meal trend has fluctuated widely recently. What is the market trend? Today we will analyze it in detail!
Live pig market:
With the arrival of New Year’s Day, the pickling season in the south has basically ended. Recently, the domestic consumer market has been supported by the good news of New Year’s Day. Downstream demand performance has improved, and the operating rate of slaughterhouses has also rebounded to Around 32%. However, as curing in the south has basically ended, the market’s demand for cattle and pigs has weakened. In recent days, the price of large pigs has continued to fall, which has also dragged down the standard pig market, retail pig farms and secondary fattening and slaughtering sentiment rebounded. Pigs The price dropped sharply!
On January 1, the national average price of three-yuan live pigs fell to 16.41 yuan/kg, down 0.46 yuan from yesterday. In the past two days, pig prices have fallen sharply, and pig prices in the domestic market have gradually declined. Lower, at present, in the northern market, pig prices have successively fallen into the "7 yuan era". Some low-priced pig sources in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning have bottomed out at 7.5~7.8 yuan/jin, while in high-price areas, pig prices have fallen below 9 yuan/jin. The bottom in Sichuan and Chongqing was 7.9~8 yuan, the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets bottomed out at 8.3~8.6 yuan/jin, and in Guangdong, the price of pigs fell to 8.3 yuan/jin!
The price of live pigs has fluctuated downwards. However, in the short term, as demand is still supported, the sentiment on the breeding side is divided. Some retail pig farms are still sentimental about raising prices, while group pig companies have fewer plans to sell pigs at the beginning of the month. Therefore, after a short-term decline in pig prices, the market's price support sentiment rebounded due to the northern region, and pig prices may gradually stop falling! However, as the consumer market becomes more deserted after the holidays and the panic about slaughtering on the breeding side gradually increases, the trend of pig prices is not optimistic before mid-January, and there is a risk that the market will hit the bottom at an opportune time. Personally, I think that during the New Year’s Day and Spring Festival, the trend of pig prices will be The price of pigs fluctuated sideways at the beginning of the month, and fell sharply in the middle of the month. As the Spring Festival approached, due to the sharp increase in downstream stocking demand, the price of pigs gradually recovered, and the market showed a trend of stopping falling and rising. The average price of pigs during the month was or It will hover around 15.5~17.5 yuan/kg!
Egg market:
At the end of December, domestic egg prices dropped sharply. Due to the phased and biased demand feedback, some food factories successively suspended operations, while the foot traffic in rural markets and urban supermarkets was sparse. , the delivery of goods in the terminal market is slow, traders are not very enthusiastic about buying goods, and the inventory at the breeding end has accumulated significantly. Due to the lower meat and poultry prices this month, the elimination of old chickens in the market has slowed down, while the number of new laying hens this month has increased month-on-month, and the market Strong supply and weak demand are becoming increasingly apparent. In domestic production and marketing areas, egg prices have gradually dropped to about 4.2 to 4.3 yuan/jin. The pressure on farmers to lose money has increased sharply. In some areas, farmers' losses have reached about 0.11 to 0.15 yuan/jin!
Affected by the intensification of losses on the breeding side, the market's price support sentiment has become stronger. At the end of December, as the mask issue was relaxed, residents gradually recovered, food factories resumed operations, and companies hunted for bargains to restock fresh eggs. Sentiment has become stronger, and as New Year's Day approaches, e-commerce shipments have accelerated, and there is a certain demand for stocking in the terminal market. Egg shipments in the downstream market have accelerated, and trading enthusiasm has increased. In the domestic production and sales market, egg prices have counterattacked and risen!
According to agency data, on January 1, egg prices in the domestic production and sales market continued a general upward trend. Among them, in the Beijing area, the average price of eggs upon arrival rose to 4.61 yuan/jin, and eggs in the Hebei market The price generally rose to 4.31~4.55 yuan/jin. In the Northeast region, the price of eggs from farms in Heiji Liao market remained at 4.2~4.8 yuan/jin.
In Shandong, the price of eggs for delivery is 4.53~4.83 yuan/catty, while in the mainstream wholesale market in Shanghai, the average price of eggs has risen to 4.62 yuan/catty. In Guangdong, the average price of eggs for sale in the sales area is 4.53-4.83 yuan/catty. The price rose to 4.65~5.15 yuan/jin!
Personally, I believe that due to the certain demand for stocking in the consumer market, egg prices will still have a volatile and strong trend. However, due to the further increase in the scale of newly laid laying hens in the country in January, the egg production capacity has gradually improved, and the supply The pressure is gradually weakening, but on the demand side, the lingering influence of the mask issue still exists, and consumer pessimism remains unabated. Therefore, there is still a risk of egg prices rising and falling. However, before New Year's Day and the Spring Festival, egg prices in the production and marketing markets are still relatively volatile. Mainly, the adjustment range of rise and fall may hover around 0.2~0.3 yuan/jin!
Soybean meal market:
Recently, domestically imported soybeans have continued to enter Hong Kong, the operating rate of mainstream oil plants has increased, the average weekly crushing scale is around 2 million tons, and the soybean meal inventory of oil plants has gradually improved, while The downstream market is still in the end-of-year stocking stage, and the domestic spot soybean meal market fluctuates widely. For New Year's Day and Spring Festival, market sentiment is mixed!
From the supply side, in December, the domestic sample oil mills’ soybean crushing scale exceeded 9 million tons during the month, an increase of 22.2% month-on-month and an increase of 14.5% compared to the same period last year. The oil mills’ crushing scale There has been a significant improvement, and soybean meal inventories have also increased significantly. According to agency analysis, near the end of December, the domestic mainstream soybean meal inventory scale is 504,000 tons, an increase of nearly 140,000 tons from last week. Domestic soybean meal supply capacity has improved! In the circulation market, the downstream demand performance is average. In some areas, residents are concentrated in the sun, and companies are having difficulty finding trucks. The pressure on soybean meal delivery from some oil plants has increased sharply!
In terms of demand, in November, domestic industrial feed production was 25.79 million tons, down 2.8% month-on-month. Among them, the prices of various feeds increased month-on-month in November. However, demand slowed down significantly. Among them, fattening The average ex-factory price of pig compound feed is 3.88 yuan/kg, up 1% from the previous month, and the price of concentrated feed is 5.98 yuan/kg, up 0.8%! Feed prices fluctuate and rise. However, due to the sharp decline in live pig prices, the accelerated pace of clearing production capacity at the breeding end, and a significant increase in the number of secondary fattening products, the market sentiment for feed demand has worsened. In particular, at present, the number of live pigs entering and exiting the slaughterhouse is concentrated. At this stage, the market's moderately heavy pig sources may be cleared out in the short term, which will also limit the operating rates of feed companies and reduce the market's demand for soybean meal!
At present, the domestic spot soybean meal market mainly fluctuates within a narrow range. The national average soybean meal price is around 4,748 yuan/ton. In December, the soybean meal market fell by nearly 7%. Although, at the end of the month, the price support sentiment of oil mills The price is relatively concentrated, and the price tends to be more volatile. However, due to the deviation of market soybean meal trading expectations during the New Year's Day and Spring Festival, and the accumulation of soybean meal in oil plants has gradually become stronger, I personally believe that the price of soybean meal will still be volatile and weak. !
Pork prices have fallen, egg prices have counterattacked, and the soybean meal market has fluctuated. How will it rise or fall before the Spring Festival? The answer is here! What do you think of this? The above is the author’s personal opinion!