Domestic goods are going crazy. Originally, the currencies of all countries in the world were loose, especially in the United States, and the price increase was inevitable. After the tide of price increase came, the heavy merchants added fuel to the fire and went crazy! After the madness, a chicken feather is inevitable! It's only a matter of time before there are ups and downs. It is only a matter of time before bottoming out, because the general trend is that future price increases are inevitable, especially for commodities, especially iron ore and wood. We will wait and see.

The commodity market outlook is definitely still rising, but it is rising slowly, not falling. The state has made it very clear that it is to combat the rapid rise of commodities, not to combat the rise of commodities. The rise of commodities is a global trend. The main reason is that central banks are releasing water and liquidity is rampant. This is not a problem that can be solved by anyone who gives an order. Futures are falling now, but the spot price has not changed much.

If we want to predict the trend of commodities in the medium and long term, we must first rationally analyze the reasons for this round of skyrocketing: 1, the unfinished quantitative easing in the United States. Historical experience tells us that every round of large-scale water release in the United States will arouse a round of rising commodity prices. You can take a look at the commodity trend chart after the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008 and the quantitative easing in the United States. 2. As the engine of the world economy, China's economy has returned to normal, and the United States' economy has gradually recovered. After the recovery of the world economy driven by the two countries, the demand for bulk commodities has greatly increased. 3. The rapid spread of vaccines around the world has made people optimistic about epidemic control and increased their confidence in future economic recovery, which is also the market sentiment.

Therefore, judging the long-term trend of commodities depends on whether the above three factors exist. Is there any change?

Although the surge of commodities is caused by excessive market sentiment, some varieties are indeed divorced from the fundamentals, so the short-term market will adjust downward, and then return to the fundamentals, waiting for the data of major economic powers such as China and the United States and the long-term changes in the epidemic to determine the fundamental changes in the world economy. But the decline may not be too much, and it is impossible to return to the state of last year, because this is also divorced from the fundamentals. I suggest we wait and see ...