Text/"Autobot" Huang
No matter what statistical caliber and wording are adopted, there is no doubt that 2023 will be a year of "opening up".
In view of the historical low online data of 5438+ 10 in June 2023, the rebound in the first quarter is a high probability. But don't expect too much from the high rebound, because the current tone of the market is cautious and conservative.
As of press time, the data in February has not been fully counted. According to the trend in the first three weeks of February, the Federation predicted that the monthly retail sales would be 654.38+0.35 million, up 7.2% year-on-year and 4.3% quarter-on-quarter. This is basically in line with industry expectations.
PHEV will develop faster than before.
Since 2022, new energy vehicles have strided towards a slightly slower development track. Although many manufacturers are prepared for this, they didn't expect it to be so much slower.
This shows how much the whole industrial chain paid for the high growth rate in 2022. Now that the adjustment has been made, it may not be too bad, and there are not enough negative factors accumulated at present.
According to the caliber of the Federation, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles (EV and PHEV) in June 5438+ 10 was 25.7%, up 8.7% year-on-year, but down 19% month-on-month. In February, there were 400,000 new energy sources (predicted value), with a year-on-year increase of 46.6%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 20.3% and a penetration rate of 29.6%.
Comparing the data of two months, the growth of new energy is almost synchronous with the growth of permeability, that is, new energy vehicles are the main means to maintain growth by grabbing territory from fuel vehicles. The growth of the whole market is very limited. That is, it is impossible to achieve 7% growth in the whole year, and it only rebounded on the basis of a low base in February.
This is expected. Among them, the retail ratio of PHEV to EV in June was 1: 1.8. In 2022, the annual sales volume of PHEV was 65,438+0,565,438+0.8 million, and the annual sales volume of electric vehicles was 5.365 million, with the ratio of 65,438+0: 3.53. Obviously, the market share of the two companies is rapidly approaching, and the trend of PHEV growth will continue in 2023.
Two restrictive factors
However, in 2023, some new phenomena appeared in the industry, which is just the opposite of the trend shown by sales figures. In other words, there are two constraints on the share of PHEV relative to EV in 2023. Our task is to weigh the effectiveness of these two factors.
One is that the price of battery raw materials has dropped, and the price advantage of hybrid small batteries has weakened. At present, lithium carbonate has dropped from a high of 600,000 yuan/ton to 420,000 yuan/ton.
Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. recently proposed a "lithium mine rebate" plan to new energy automobile enterprises. The core content is: in the next three years, the price of lithium carbonate for some power batteries will be set at 200,000 yuan/ton, and the cost is that the cooperative vehicle enterprises need to promise about 80% of the battery purchases to Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.
This is the embodiment of modern Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. grasping the upstream. The focus of futures is psychological expectation. Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. may have a global production capacity of 500G-600GWh in 2024 and 2025, with a total production capacity of 65,438+0,000 gwh. Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. not only needs to find customers for these capacities, but also needs to lock in orders for current capacities.
There are signs that the huge cost gap between electric vehicles and PHEV tends to narrow in 2022. However, we should see that from the cathode lithium salt to the finished battery, and then to the whole vehicle, the value has obvious shrinkage effect after being transmitted along the supply chain. The purchase price of raw materials doubles (in fact, it is only the skyrocketing futures price), and the battery price may rise by 20%; At the vehicle end, only 7% price increase will be the driving force.
Now new energy brands are fighting price wars, and they are fierce, even offering 10%. The overall preferential margin for passenger cars in February was 13.8%, which was the same as that in June. The impact of the rise and fall of raw materials on the downstream is not as great as hype.
The other is that since June 5438+ 10, 2023, the Yangtze River Delta cities headed by Shanghai no longer give PHEV and extend the "green card". This will directly pull Li down from Shanghai's new energy rankings.
If only first-tier cities do this in 2023, the problem is not very big. However, if there are followers in major economic regions such as the Pearl River Delta, the Yangtze River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Bohai Economic Circle, it will be in big trouble to extend the journey. At least Li, a brand whose main product line is extended journey, will be affected.
At present, I haven't seen Beijing's intention to do so. However, people can't judge what the local government's tolerance bottom line is, that is, if the mixture exceeds a certain proportion, it will stimulate the government to offer the policy of "mixing without issuing a green card".
Some people think that the purpose of Shanghai is to protect Tesla (all products are EVs). But once this kind of "biased" behavior is more, it will attract the attention of state supervision. There is a complex restrictive relationship between local policies and state supervision, which is difficult to understand with a simple relationship between superiors and subordinates.
Of course, the two major cities, Beijing and Shanghai, don't buy the soft policies (such as the Measures and the Interim Measures) issued by some ministries, such as restricting purchases and used cars. However, ministries and commissions actually have no power to directly intervene and can only appeal. First-tier cities (provincial units) also keep a distance from the former, keeping a line with each other and not telling the truth.
Therefore, although these two factors occurred in early 2023, their containment effect is actually suspicious, and the market is still going at its own pace.
Autobots judge that the proportion of PHEV will increase in 2023, and the ratio of PHEV to EV may reach 1: 1.5. This shows that OEMs must strengthen the layout of PHEV products.
Price war has no effect.
Everyone thinks that the competition for new energy is already fierce in 2022, but I didn't expect a higher price war to start in 2023. Tesla launched a price war, and most new energy brands participated in the war.
"Autobots" speculated that Tesla's move, like the "rebate" of Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd., aims to resettle the new production capacity that is about to land and maintain the capacity utilization rate and order pool (this is actually the same thing).
If there is no order pool, production will be forced to stop, and the cost of overall emptying is quite high. In particular, direct brands have no dealer inventory as a buffer and must maintain their own order pool.
Theoretically, the result of the price war needs to be observed. But in fact, we all know that price wars are like mosquito-repellent incense tablets, which are most effective at first. If you don't catch anything at first, you can't count on it later. What's more, most of the effects are hedged after the main opponents keep up.
Unofficial data shows that Tesla did not achieve the expected goal. If Tesla still has cost space, it is only a matter of time before launching the next price war. If this is the result, it will be difficult for everyone to make money in 2023, regardless of the ups and downs of battery raw materials. I'm afraid the conclusion is "the most important thing is to be alive".
Price Market: Complete Substitution and Progressive Invasion
Just as brands are uneven, so is the price market.
According to the data of vehicle models in June 5,438+10, as in the previous two years, the market below 65,438+10,000 yuan lacks hand-to-hand combat, and fewer manufacturers are willing to do it-only a few brands such as Wuling Hong Guang, Chery and Changan Lu Min.
Consumers in this market segment are extremely sensitive to price, so everyone focuses on low cost. As can be expected, this pattern has been solidified for several years, except Chang 'an Lu Min, all of them are old faces. There will be no decent changes in 2023.
65438+100000-10.50000 yuan and10.50000-200000 yuan are the two new energy markets with the largest turnover, which can be confirmed by the data in 2022 and early 2023. In terms of sales volume, the former is slightly more, but there is not much difference; The difference is that the former is dominated by EV, while the latter is dominated by PHEV. BYD and Ai 'an are the leaders in these two fields, and Changan Deep Blue is catching up at a high speed.
All models below 200,000 yuan are mainly from China enterprises. This is the basic volume, and new forces are less involved (Weilai may try it in the future). Huawei Yu Chengdong also said that it is gross profit margin not to make models below 200,000 yuan, but it is more likely that the skill of vertical integration is insufficient.
Below 200 thousand yuan, the gross profit margin of new energy is a test of the control of the main engine factory on the upstream. Zero running is a different new motivation. The main product, C 1 1, is priced at180,000-230,000, riding in the middle of two areas. Recently, however, Zero Run has launched an extended version of C 1 1, and the price starts at160,000 yuan.
This proves that the relative share of small battery new energy vehicles is still rising for the simple reason that the market needs it. Only by conforming to market demand can there be a future.
The model of 200,000-250,000 yuan is the world of Tesla and BYD. The sharp price reduction of the former is the darling of the second line and above. Many public opinions have pointed out that Tesla and the new forces are "not heavy enough." In fact, if we stick to the current product sequence and sink below the third line, it will only distract our attention and resources, and the result will not cover the cost of expanding channels.
In 2023, this trend will continue. This means that the new forces may not do much to expand production capacity.
The product range of 250,000-400,000 yuan is the world of Tesla and Wei Xiaoli. With this wave of price cuts, BMW and Mercedes-Benz have also entered this region.
Mid-to-high-end models (more than 300,000 yuan), although the site of fuel vehicles has been eroded, can still remain generally stable. In this price range, the substitution of new energy vehicles for fuel vehicles will not gain an advantage in 2023.
Location market: It has a strong connection with price and category.
Products in the range of more than 300,000 yuan are mainly aimed at the first-line and strong second-line (so-called new first-line) markets. And these regional markets, the administrative license of local governments, play the role of setting the market.
In the vast Beijing market, the sales of new energy vehicles in June and February 2023 were actually less than half that of Shenzhen. Because of Shanghai's policy of giving green cards directly, the situation is slightly better, similar to that of Shenzhen, with a monthly sales volume of a little more than 10 thousand.
After several years of retrogression, first-tier cities mainly focus on changing markets. This has led to new forces and state-owned enterprises in addition to the headquarters (including surrounding cities), and they are all paying attention to new channels on strong second-tier sites.
It is necessary for us to make a second-tier list (in order of economic strength): Chengdu, Tianjin, Nanjing, Hangzhou, Chongqing, Wuhan, Changsha, Xiamen, Zhengzhou, Shenyang, Xi, Dalian and Jinan.
For the new energy market, some smaller cities with strong economic strength, such as Zhuhai and Suzhou, have also received considerable attention.
In the previous list, cities such as Zhengzhou will lose a lot of attention. There are two reasons: first, the farther north we go, the more prominent the short board of new energy vehicles is, so that there is no sense of existence in the northeast; The other is that the GDP of northern cities is very high, but the proportion of residents' income is relatively low, and the GDP ranking cannot reflect the real purchasing power.
In the past two years, the most striking competition of new energy has been held in the above cities. And below the third line, it is the silent majority. They absorbed most of the market energy, but the consumption of the new energy sector was mostly below 200,000 yuan.
In terms of sales volume, small and medium-sized cities will win the southern towns and villages in 2023. However, from the perspective of market attention, brand reputation and corporate profits, we should pay more attention to cities above the second tier. Otherwise, with the monthly sales of 10,000 vehicles by the new forces, such a large flow should not be obtained.
In 2023, it will be symbolic and restrained for high-end electric vehicles to participate in the price war. They will strive to maintain brand positioning and gross profit margin. After high-end EVs are generally equipped with 100 kWh batteries, PHEV has actually become the new favorite of BBA redemption. BBA strives to retain old customers through its own new energy transformation.
In 2022, products and new energy vehicles in the range of 250,000-400,000 yuan have not completely suppressed fuel vehicles, but this situation is expected to be achieved in 2023. The price segment with the strongest share of new energy is still within 200,000 yuan; And within 65,438+10,000 yuan, EV has occupied an overwhelming advantage.
In the craze of PHEV, the first-line market has always maintained its enthusiasm for medium and large cars. The contribution of PHEV and Extended Range is to provide consumers with new choices with lower cost and fresher experience.
As a result, even MPV and large SUV were stimulated by consumption transformation and began to go out of the independent market. Some startups release new energy MPV, which many people don't understand. When the product line was far from covering the mainstream demand, they suddenly went to make niche models. This is actually a differentiated competition.
In addition, this market is expanding, which has well rejected the counterattack of fuel vehicles and belongs to a relatively stable and continuous market. This investment will not suffer. At least it is much less stressful than the popular market segment of bayonet (such as compact SUV), and it can also meet the needs of group customers.
On the surface, some car companies belong to the global overall layout. In fact, the product density is still from low to high: the low-end is heavily guarded and the high-end brush has a sense of existence. At present, Toyota and Volkswagen, which are truly fully deployed in the era of fuel vehicles, have not yet appeared. Of course, some car companies are moving in this direction.
In 2023, the product layout of new energy vehicles and the distribution of market resources need to be paid more attention by car companies. How to use these resources will be the decisive factor of its commercial return. Copyright statement This article is the original manuscript of Autobots and may not be reproduced without authorization.
This article comes from Autobot Media, the author of Easy Car Number, and the copyright belongs to the author. Please contact the author for any form of reprint. The content only represents the author's point of view and has nothing to do with the car reform.