Compiling Conditions of China Agricultural Products Futures Price Index
At present, China's agricultural futures have the basic conditions for compiling the agricultural futures price index, regardless of the number of varieties, the scale of transactions or the impact on the market.
There are 13 varieties of agricultural products listed in China's futures market, including early indica rice, strong wheat, durum wheat, corn, cotton, soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, palm oil, sugar and natural rubber, accounting for nearly half of the listed futures varieties, covering agricultural products such as grain, cotton and oil.
20 1 1 China agricultural futures traded 573 million lots, with a turnover of 55.28 trillion yuan, accounting for 54% and 40% of the total turnover in the futures market respectively. According to the statistics of the Futures Association (FIA), in 20 1 1 year, China's agricultural futures trading volume accounted for 58% of the global agricultural futures market turnover. With the development of China's agricultural futures market, investors' participation in agricultural futures has been increasing, which has played an obvious role in guiding the adjustment of planting structure, promoting agricultural industrialization and modernization, avoiding market risks and protecting farmers' interests, and a series of typical cases such as "Silver Model", "Olympic Model" and "Yanjin Model" have emerged.
The development path of global commodity futures basically follows the development law of "commodity-commodity futures-financial commodity futures". The research of agricultural futures price index can bring theoretical innovation of financial commodity futures and lead the agricultural futures market in China to a new stage of development.
Significance of compiling agricultural futures price index
Agricultural futures price index is an important part of commodity futures price index, which is a comprehensive index based on core agricultural futures prices and reflects the changes of "package" agricultural futures prices. The compilation of agricultural futures price index is of great significance to the macro national economy and the micro futures market.
From a macro point of view, the compilation of agricultural futures index is conducive to reflecting macroeconomic trends from a systematic point of view and early warning of possible crises. The importance of agricultural products in people's lives is self-evident, and the rise of their prices will inevitably lead to the increase of mass consumption expenditure and social inflation through the price transmission mechanism. In the composition of consumer price index (CPI) in China, the weight of food price is about 1/3. As the most important raw material in the food industry, the price change of agricultural products is more critical to the trend of CPI. In addition, the futures market has the function of price discovery, and the agricultural futures price index can comprehensively and objectively reflect the overall supply and demand situation of the agricultural products market, overcoming the limitation that a single agricultural futures product cannot reflect the changes in the overall supply and demand relationship of the market, and has the characteristics of * * * homogeneity, comprehensiveness and predictability. The research shows that the futures price index of agricultural products can reflect the real-time trend of CPI 3-6 months in advance, so it can provide an important reference tool for the government to make economic forecast and macro-control.
However, at present, China's agricultural product price index system at the application level is not complete, and the spot price index of agricultural products is the main one, such as the national agricultural product wholesale price index, the national grain and oil wholesale price index, and the China cotton price index. Indicators reflecting the futures prices of agricultural products are relatively scarce. Therefore, it is very necessary to compile the futures price index of agricultural products.
From the micro level, the agricultural futures price index, as the "agricultural futures market index" reflecting the overall trend of the agricultural futures market, can help investors judge the market better and faster, grasp the market trend in time, and provide investors with tools for futures trading of specific agricultural products and arbitrage trading of indexes and specific varieties. By analyzing the futures price index of agricultural products, combined with commodity cycle, stock market cycle and economic cycle, investors can clearly understand the turning point of economic cycle, thus allocating corresponding industry assets and grasping investment opportunities. In addition, derivatives such as agricultural futures price index futures and options have unique advantages such as low transaction cost, two-way transaction and cash settlement. On the one hand, we can be close to "agriculture, countryside and farmers" and develop more futures products and services suitable for agriculture and benefiting farmers; On the other hand, it can attract more financial and non-financial institutions that are not interested in specific agricultural products trading, but want to use the futures market to avoid inflation risks and make portfolio investments, thus strengthening the strength of institutional investors and optimizing the investor structure.
China's futures market originated from agricultural products. Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange is not only the earliest futures market in China, but also one of the markets with the richest varieties of agricultural products. The compilation of its agricultural futures price index will promote the research and development of domestic commodity futures price index, which is of positive significance to enrich the innovation and development of domestic futures market.