Behind the record high price of international crude oil futures.
The closing price of international crude oil futures reached a record high, which was quite different from the previous two times. The main factor in 2005 was the huge losses caused by hurricanes to the American oil exploration and refining industry along the Gulf Coast. The main driving factor in 2006 is the "political premium" caused by the deterioration of the political situation in the Middle East. Market analysts believe that the main driving force for the rise in oil prices this year is the fundamental support-the imbalance between supply and demand in the market.
Since 2003, the global economic growth rate has exceeded 4% for four consecutive years, which is the longest duration of rapid economic development since World War II. Although oil prices continue to rise, on the basis of strong economic growth, the demand for oil in various countries continues to rise.
The latest report released by the International Energy Agency predicts that the global oil demand will reach 86 million barrels a day this year, up 2% from last year, while the growth rate in 2006 is only 0.9% compared with 2005.
The IEA also predicts that in the next few years, driven by the strong growth of the world economy, the world energy demand will continue to rise. By 20 1 1, the world will need 95.8 million barrels of crude oil every day.
Can the oil supply keep up with the increasing demand? According to the report of the International Energy Agency, the oil production capacity of non-OPEC (non-OPEC) is close to the peak, and there is little room for increasing production in the future. The report predicts that the average annual growth rate of non-OPEC oil-producing countries will not exceed 1% in the next five years. To this end, the International Energy Agency called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase its daily output by 1 10,000 barrels to achieve a balance between supply and demand in the global crude oil market.
The current daily output of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is 6.5438+700,000 barrels less than that of the same period last year. Due to the sharp drop in international oil prices in the fourth quarter of 2006, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries reduced the daily output of crude oil by 6,543,800+200,000 barrels at the beginning of 2006 10, and reduced the output by 500,000 barrels again in February 2007. After OPEC implemented measures to limit production and protect prices, the current oil price has increased by nearly 50% compared with the second time when OPEC cut production.
Guy caruso, head of the Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy, recently called on the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to increase crude oil production in the second half of this year to avoid high oil prices. If the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries does nothing, there will be too few oil stocks in the United States and the world, which will lead to the continuous rise of oil prices.
Faced with various suggestions to increase production, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries refused to increase production and limit prices. Naimeh, Minister of Oil and Mineral Resources of Saudi Arabia, the largest oil exporter of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said recently that the current high oil price is not due to supply shortage, but to insufficient global refining capacity and geopolitical tension. The rotating chairman of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and UAE Energy Minister Hamili also said that the high oil price has nothing to do with OPEC, and so far OPEC has no reason to increase production.
Market analysts pointed out that the slow growth of crude oil supply is the main reason for this round of oil price increase, but the lack of refining capacity also played a role in fueling the situation. In 2003 and 2004, while the global oil demand increased by 2.4% and 3.2% respectively, the refining capacity only increased by 0.4% and 0.3% respectively.
Market analysts also pointed out that the unstable situation in Nigeria, the Iranian nuclear issue, the turmoil in Iraq, the risk of hurricane season in the North Atlantic and the speculative trading activities of hedge funds under the background of excess capital liquidity are also the driving forces for oil prices to rise.
Based on the above factors, analysts believe that international oil prices will run at a high level in the future, and some institutions have also raised their forecasts for oil prices.
The focus of recent market attention is the ministerial meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to be held in Vienna on September 6th. Although some members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries refused to limit production, badri, Secretary General of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, hinted in an interview with Australian media recently that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries did not want oil prices to rise out of control. If the oil price rises to $80 a barrel, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries may decide to limit production.