At the beginning of the new century, the world economy fully recovered and maintained rapid growth for four consecutive years from 2003 to 2006. In 2005, the real growth of the global economy was 4.9%, and in 2006 it reached 5.1%. Emerging countries such as China and India have replaced the United States and other developed countries and become the "new engine" of global economic growth. With their vast territory, large population, abundant resources, huge market potential, and increasingly open and market-oriented economic systems, emerging markets are more favored by international capital and have begun to share the greater benefits of international division of labor and global industrial restructuring; emerging countries International influence continues to increase, and the trend of multi-polar development of the world economy is gradually increasing. Cross-border mergers and acquisitions are increasingly active, promoting asset restructuring in global energy and other minerals, steel, machinery and other industries.
The world economic development slowed down in 2007. According to the United Nations forecast, global economic growth slowed down to 3.2%. The economic growth of developed countries is expected to be 2.5%, Europe's economy is expected to slow down to about 2%, and Japan will fall back to below 2%. The economic growth of developing countries was 8.1%, and that of India was 9%. The East Asian economy will continue to maintain strong growth momentum, with an average growth rate of 7.5%, but the development speed of South Asia has slowed down. The economic performance of the least developed countries is also very eye-catching, especially among the countries that benefit from high commodity prices, some oil producers and other mineral exporters. The economic growth rate of these countries is expected to continue to maintain a strong momentum of around 7%.
From a global perspective, strong demand, especially the surge in demand caused by changes in the global economic growth pattern, as well as factors such as the weakening of the U.S. dollar, the futures market, the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, OPEC production restrictions, and active international speculation, continue to Affecting the price trend of global primary products, the supply and demand relationship in the energy and primary product markets remains tight, and prices continue to rise. Under the condition that demand remains rigid, the increasingly fragile supply system has caused international market prices to continue to rise. Terrorist activities, natural disasters, geopolitics and other factors have further raised the supply cost of global resource products and reduced the supply elasticity of resource products. Most countries in the world, especially the emerging economies represented by the “BRIC” countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China), are experiencing varying degrees of inflation.
In 2007, my country's economy continued to maintain rapid and steady development. The annual gross domestic product (GDP) was 24,661.9 billion yuan, an increase of 11.4% over the previous year, and an increase of more than 10% for five consecutive years. Looking at the quarters, the growth rate was 11.1% in the first quarter, 11.9% in the second quarter, 11.5% in the third quarter, and 11.2% in the fourth quarter. In terms of industries, the added value of the primary industry was 2,891 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points; the added value of the secondary industry was 12,138.1 billion yuan, an increase of 13.4%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points; the added value of the tertiary industry was 9,632.8 billion yuan, an increase of 0.4 percentage points. 11.4%, an acceleration of 0.6 percentage points; there is an imbalance in development, and industry, especially heavy industry, develops too fast, which is also an important factor affecting my country's strong demand for resources.
Consumer prices have risen rapidly, and housing sales prices have increased significantly. The consumer price for the whole year increased by 4.8%, an increase of 3.3 percentage points over the previous year, of which urban prices increased by 4.5% and rural areas increased by 5.4%. The increase in food and housing prices is the main reason for the increase in the overall price level. In terms of categories, food prices increased by 12.3%; housing prices increased by 4.5%. The retail price of goods increased by 3.8% throughout the year. The purchase price of raw materials, fuel and power increased by 4.4%. The ex-factory price of industrial products increased by 3.1%. Throughout the year, the sales price of houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities increased by 7.6% over the previous year, an increase of 2.1 percentage points over the previous year. Since 2007, prices have continued to rise and inflationary pressure has increased. It can be seen that the price increase of real estate related to land and resources is relatively large, which is much higher than the overall price increase. It is a focus issue that is generally concerned by society.
Foreign trade has grown rapidly, and foreign direct investment continues to grow. The total import and export volume for the whole year was US$2.1738 billion, an increase of 23.5% over the previous year, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points. Among them, exports were US$1.218 billion, an increase of 25.7%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points; imports were US$955.8 billion, an increase of 20.8%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points. The trade surplus was US$262.2 billion, an increase of US$84.7 billion over the previous year. The actual use of foreign direct investment from non-financial institutions throughout the year was US$74.8 billion, an increase of 13.6% over the previous year. At the end of the year, the country's foreign exchange reserve balance reached US$1.53 trillion, an increase of 43.3% over the previous year.
Fixed asset investment is at a high level. The whole society’s fixed asset investment for the whole year was 13,723.9 billion yuan, an increase of 24.8% over the previous year, an increase of 0.9 percentage points. Among them, urban fixed asset investment was 11,741.4 billion yuan, an increase of 25.8%, an increase of 1.5 percentage points. From an industry perspective, the investment in the mining industry was 527.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%, 2 percentage points lower than the previous year; except for the acceleration of investment growth in the non-metal mining industry, the growth rate of other mining industries slowed down.
Among them, the investment in coal mining and washing industry was 180.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.7%, a decrease of 3.5 percentage points from the previous year; the investment in oil and natural gas mining industry was 223 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.4%, a decrease of 1.4 percentage points from the previous year; ferrous metals The investment in the mining and dressing industry was 42.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%, and a decrease of 8.5 percentage points from the previous year; the investment in the non-ferrous metal mining and dressing industry was 49.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.1%, and a decrease of 3.7 percentage points from the previous year; non-metal mining Investment in industry selection was 29.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous year (Figure 1). Judging from the trends throughout the year, investment in the mining industry has grown steadily, with the growth rate gradually accelerating; investment in non-ferrous metals has continued to maintain a high growth level, with a relatively high growth rate; the non-metallic mineral mining and processing industry has grown steadily, showing a good momentum of development. In terms of smelting and processing, the investment in ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 256.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%; the investment in non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 129.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.9%, an increase of 7 percentage points over the previous year; non-metallic minerals The investment in the products industry was 279.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.8%, a significant increase of 17.8 percentage points over the previous year; the investment in the petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industries was 141.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 50.3%, an increase of 32.4 percentage points over the previous year. The average growth rate of the smelting and processing industry is 34.1%, which is much higher than the 14.4% growth rate of the previous year. The smelting and processing industry has shown rapid growth again and needs to be paid great attention to. The investment in the geological exploration industry was 7.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 27.7%, which was much higher than the 14.4% growth rate of the previous year. It exceeded the national average growth rate of fixed asset investment for the first time in recent years.
Figure 1 Changes in the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the mining industry and its main fields in 2007
2007 Land and Resources Situation Analysis Report
Overall, The changes in investment in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the mining industry are different. Investment in the downstream smelting and processing industry has rebounded, which is much higher than last year's growth level. Non-ferrous metals have shown a higher growth rate again; investment in the mining industry has been booming in recent years. The growth rate continues to slow down and is close to the national average level of fixed asset investment. The growth rate gradually increased from the first quarter to the fourth quarter. The upstream geological exploration industry has been higher than the national average level for the first time in recent years, which to a certain extent reflects the society's attitude toward geological work. attention (Figure 2).
In addition, the waste resource and waste material recycling and processing industry invested 8.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 120.2%. It is the industry with the largest growth rate. The growth rate once again exceeded 100%. The investment intensity continues to increase, which fully reflects the The state and society are paying more and more attention to resource recycling, and concrete actions to establish a resource-saving and environment-friendly society are constantly being strengthened.
Figure 2 Changes in the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the upper, middle and lower reaches of the mining industry in 2007
2007 Land and Resources Situation Analysis Report
The real estate industry has always been the party’s In areas where the central government and the State Council attach great importance to and are generally concerned by society, macroeconomic control has been further intensified and various policy documents have been issued. However, driven by huge social needs, the momentum of excessive investment growth continues. In 2007, investment for the whole year 2,854.3 billion yuan, an increase of 32.2% over the previous year, an increase of 6.8 percentage points, and an overall rebound, which is 8.4 percentage points higher than the national average growth level of urban fixed asset investment (Figure 3). Judging from the changes throughout the year, the growth rate of investment in the real estate industry showed a gradual increase from the first quarter to the fourth quarter. This is a trend worthy of attention, and it is necessary to further increase the intensity of regulation and seek more effective regulation means and methods.
Figure 3 Changes in real estate investment and national urban fixed asset investment growth rate in 2007
2007 Land and Resources Situation Analysis Report