If the main funds continue to maintain the shipping trend, 3000 points will be only a matter of time. Only after the current crisis is over will the market have a chance to talk about how much the Olympics can rise. The real reason that caused the main force to ship a large amount before was the huge non-lifting of the ban and the huge malicious additional issuance. It was difficult for the main force to take over the funds. In order to prevent the unblocked funds from standing guard, the only choice was to get out before they came out. These two substantive problems If it is not resolved, the main worries will not be resolved, and the rebound should be treated with a rebound mentality. The news previously circulated by the media and stock commentators was that institutions have been building large-scale positions and calling on retail investors to buy the bottom. However, the latest information on changes in the Great Wisdom Fund shows that since the continuous rebound, the proportion of institutional positions has not increased, but has continued to reduce positions. However, the number of retail investors buying the bottom continues to increase, which means that the current market situation is caused by the main force stabilizing large-cap stocks, creating the illusion that the market is about to reverse, and attracting retail investors to pick up the selling chips of the main force. Please be cautious among retail investors. Two pieces of information appeared in the market, which gave OTC funds a glimmer of hope for a rebound in the stock market. First, it was rumored that the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued a secret order to securities firms to maintain market stability. Summary: 1. Pay close attention to market changes and establish a sound emergency mechanism ( This news does not have short-term feasibility. A sound mechanism cannot be formed in one big drop. The time period is too long, and the water in the distance cannot solve the fire in the near future.) 2. Carry out in-depth investor education and provide investors with more and better professional services. Service (as the risk education market has made investors feel that this will not bring about the restoration of investment confidence, providing professional services is a very empty, purely perfunctory, routine language) 3. Take effective measures to ensure the security of information technology systems ( This is the most basic condition that securities companies should provide investors) 4. Strengthen the security of offices and business premises to effectively prevent the occurrence of various emergencies (it is nothing more than to prevent investors who have been trapped in the situation after their confidence collapses. Vent it out in an irrational way. I personally don’t think it will cause the stock market to rise sharply. It cannot be beaten. It is purely to prevent investors.) 5. Properly handle petitions and complaints and effectively maintain social stability (this will only disappoint investors) It is a way to vent emotions, and it is also to avoid excessive investment behavior when the dissatisfaction cannot be vented.) Although this so-called secret order has been mentioned to maintain market stability, there is no good news that can really stimulate the current stock market. It is just a series of measures to deal with investor dissatisfaction, and its positive impact on the stock market can basically be ignored. 2. State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission: It is recommended that "large and small non-profits" should not reduce their holdings. 1. Strengthen the dynamic supervision of state-owned shares (whether it is to prevent illegal operations, insider trading, interest transfer and other illegal activities, or to strengthen the dynamic monitoring of shares of listed companies held in the transfer of state-owned shares , it does not change the general idea of ??the country's policies on non-compliance, large and small. As long as there are no violations, you can cash out normally. It has no meaning and is just superficial.) 2. Expose the blindly hyped restructuring subject (it is indisputable that it is the most urgent need to solve now) (The size of the shares is not a problem) 3. The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission recommends that "Size and Stake" not reduce their holdings (since the recommendation does not have mandatory measures, it will not affect the willingness of "Size" to cash out in a weak market state, which means it is not said). Due to the so-called above The good news has temporarily aroused expectations that the government may intervene in the market, temporarily stabilizing people's hearts. However, because it is all insignificant news, it will not have a substantial effect on preventing the reduction of large and small non-holdings. The main force still has not reached its destination. Therefore, if the government Failure of measures to intervene in the market may cause panic selling again. Please be careful to prevent the risk of another sharp decline. It is indeed a very contradictory question as to whether to bail out the market. If the government bails out the market, stamp duty is a powerful medicine, which will give institutions the opportunity to increase shipments again. The stock market may die faster after the institutions are done with it. Then the market will really be in trouble. The full set is for retail investors. Now the government is also in conflict. What we need to do now is to save ourselves and not wait for the government's rescue. Now we have to go with the trend, don't be too long or too short, just be a slippery one. The market situation in the past few weeks has reached a turning point in the stock market, which may determine the final market outcome of this year. The 20-day moving average that hit 3653 before the market failed again and ended with a sharp drop. The market may drop again due to profit-making selling pressure. After the short-term rebound, we still need to pay attention to whether the 20-day moving average can bring a "huge volume" breakthrough and stand firm. If you are not stable, pay attention to controlling your position. Only when you stand firm and fluctuate higher can you have the opportunity to open up room for upside. The continued issuance of new shares next week will have a blood-draining effect on the stock market. In the case of continuous shrinkage of capacity, when over-the-counter funds wait and see cautiously, the issuance of new shares may become a negative factor for the market operation next week. Previously, there were many positive rumors in the market that the country would reduce stamp duty and announce stock index futures. Now the results have turned out to be all false. Now it is almost certain that they are rumors created by institutions. Space Diary mentioned many indicators 5 weeks ago. Continue to be in a dangerous situation (some indicators have not been tested since July 2005, and have now been seriously penetrated to prevent the market from reversing). If the indicators cannot be repaired by gradually amplifying the upward trend with continuous volume, There may be a cold wave in the stock market in 2008. The 3600 point was easily penetrated that day. I also hope that the market will be as optimistic as my previous optimistic estimate. However, the short-term market is indeed facing a very dangerous situation, which was never encountered in 2006 or 2007.

If the stock market weakens again in the market outlook and continues to break through 3,400 points, it is recommended to control positions. Although many people believe based on experience that the market bottom will be born after the strong stocks in the current period make up for the decline significantly, but the main force is selling blue chip stocks in large quantities. The nature of the resulting slump has changed a lot. The early suppression was for the purpose of exchanging shares, but now institutions are operating under the suppression of many negative factors such as huge refinancing, continued high inflation, and the lifting of huge non-profits. The pressure is increasing day by day. Now the main purpose of the crazy sell-off is not just to suppress the stock exchange, but also to force the government to adjust the stamp duty and regulate negative issues such as malignant huge additional issuance and large and small irregularities. It has become the main purpose of the current sell-off. This kind of Unexpected situations often arise in embarrassing situations. The bottom of the market is not just determined by the so-called analysis experts based on their past experience of the market. In fact, the bottom of the market only needs to meet two conditions. First, the policies required by the main institutions are fulfilled, and second, the main funds enter the market on a large scale. Using these two most basic conditions to judge whether the bottom is formed should minimize the chance of failure in buying the bottom and prevent yourself from copying halfway up the mountain. superior. In the previous trading day, there was a bull-selling situation in the market, mainly short-selling by funds. This was caused by fund redemptions, which offset the benefits of new fund openings. The panic selling of funds and the panic selling of retail investors are different in nature. , which is very damaging to the market. Now there is also a serious differentiation of market target positions within institutions, which will make the fund's actions contradictory and make the market unstable. Please remember that the bottom of the market is copied by the main force, not by retail investors. It is wise to wait and see before the main force goes long in a unified manner. Money is safest when it is in your hands. Don't worry about where the bottom is. If these two conditions are not fulfilled, it is not a bottom. Some benefits that are indifferent only alleviate the decline of the stock index. In view of the huge risk at the current point, it is recommended that investors control their positions below 1/3 to cope with the current uncertainty of the market. Since the quantity and energy are not ideal, and the adjustment of stamp duty has not been implemented for the time being, it is just a rumor. , it is necessary to prevent the main force from deliberately creating it again to build momentum for increasing and reducing positions. Since the conditions have not yet appeared, please treat it cautiously with an oversold rebound. Now when there are too many uncertain factors in the market, controlling positions is to avoid risks and prevent risks. The only way to go short! The rules of the stock market will not change. The strong will always be strong and the weak will always be weak. The essence of stock trading is the main force. As long as the main force does not intervene in large-scale operations in the varieties and sectors that the main force sells in large quantities, the later trend will not be ideal. , please keep up with the main funds to minimize the risk of loss of your own funds and time. Although large-cap stocks such as finance, real estate, petrochemicals, etc., which were mainly shipped in large quantities in the early stage, were oversold, the rebound intensity was still cautiously treated without large-scale intervention of main funds. Only when the main force intervenes in such sectors on a large scale can it be considered a real hot switch. The rise and fall in one or two days does not mean anything. 3500 is no longer a point for funds to compete for. It may become a turning point for bulls and bears. If it falls below 3500 again later, and there is still no continuous large-scale intervention of big funds, it is impossible to stand at 3500. What is the suggestion? Keep your money in your hands for the time being and avoid risks. The market may bottom out again. If the strong support level of 3300~3400 does not break down, you can still be optimistic about the market outlook. If it falls, I will be optimistic about the lower support level of 3000 points. The above is purely a personal opinion. Please adopt with caution. Good luck.