Judging from this year's situation, in the first half of this year, under the influence of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and international energy, fertilizer prices have risen one after another.
After entering June, the price of chemical fertilizer began to fall, and the planting cost also eased. After all, chemical fertilizer accounts for nearly 45% of the planting cost.
With the decline of fertilizer prices, the enthusiasm of growers has increased again. According to relevant statistics, the application of chemical fertilizer can increase the yield of corn by about 300 Jin and increase 400 yuan.
Judging from the current fertilizer market, the price and profit of urea market are the clearest.
With the decrease of enterprise profit rate, the impact on enterprise profit is also relatively reduced. The gross profit of urea production enterprises is around 4%, which is nearly 37% lower than the same period last year. September is coming. With the arrival of chemical fertilizer reserves and autumn seeds, growers actively use chemical fertilizers, which plays a certain supporting role in concentrating demand and raising prices.
The main influencing factors of urea price rebound are as follows:
1. Power supply and demand factors in the market.
Recently, urea processing in many areas has been affected by restrictions, and urea enterprises have stopped production. For example, in Sichuan, Jiangsu, Anhui and other places, the daily output of urea has also fallen to the lowest level in the year, with a daily output of less than 6.5438+0.3 million tons.
In the case of reduced supply, the price increase is inevitable.
2. The price of urea raw coal has risen.
By the end of August, the price of anthracite continued to rise, and the downstream chemical enterprises only stayed in the stage of just-needed procurement, especially the shortage of raw materials for civilian traders, which led to the increase of coal per ton from 50 yuan to 90 yuan, and the price of anthracite in Kengkou increased by 50 to 100 yuan per ton.
With the increase of coal price, traders hold a certain wait-and-see state. Driven by the increase of high-cost urea processing raw materials, urea enterprises are more willing to hold prices.
3. Downstream market is in a wait-and-see state.
From the perspective of the whole fertilizer production enterprises, many fertilizer enterprises have been in a wait-and-see state.
All processing enterprises mainly rely on appropriate replenishment.
For the follow-up market, agriculture is still dominated by a small amount of stocking, and the concentrated demand is relatively small.
With the shortening of stocking time in autumn, downstream dealers actively stock up, especially in the expectation of centralized shipment in the later period, and some enterprises will reserve inventory in advance, which will improve the operating rate of urea enterprises to some extent.
Judging from the whole urea follow-up market, under the influence of stagnant procurement, the downstream market will appropriately strengthen its inventory. In addition, the rise of raw materials will also play a supporting role in low-cost urea.
It is expected that urea will rebound to some extent from the end of August to the first half of September.
As for the rebound time, we should always collect the power outage time and the procurement of various raw materials.