Futures can be long and short in both directions. When entering the site, the probability of judgment is 50%. After judgment, the probability of being proved correct by the market is 50%, and the total probability drops to 25%. In addition to probability, there is also the influence of human nature in trading. The correct entry does not mean that you can finally make a profit. The correct exit probability is 50%, which means that the futures trading direction is actually correct, and the probability of correct entry to exit is 50% *.
The probability is only 1/2 of that of stock trading, which is twice as difficult.
Futures trading is negative sum trading.
Negative sum game refers to the result of the conflict and struggle between the two sides, that is, less than the loss, that is, the sum of the results we usually say is negative, which is also a lose-lose game, and both sides have different degrees of losses.
The investment transaction in the securities and futures market is a continuous "negative sum game" process, that is, the losing side of the investment transaction not only loses to the profitable side, but also both sides have to pay various fees during the transaction. Therefore, not only the employees who win in the investment industry are supported by the losers, but also the employees in the investment service industry are fundamentally supported by the losers.
The futures market is a highly leveraged market.
There is no doubt that human nature is exposed in trading, and the futures market is a highly leveraged market, which will amplify human nature at the same time.
What will happen if human nature doubles? Of course, if we deviate from technology and fundamentals in a short time, the market will be shrouded in emotions, which will not only stifle traders with weak technical ability, but also stifle outstanding technical and fundamental experts in the short-term market.
Futures are contract transactions, while stocks are certificates of ownership of relative value.
The value of stocks determines that there are a large number of long-term and medium-term traders in the market, which is of great significance to the stability of the market. As a conventional delivery contract, futures are greatly affected by the delivery period, and most participants are short-term transactions, with relatively large market volatility and more obvious trends.
The shorter the trading time, the higher the uncertainty of the market and the more difficult it is to estimate the result.
Futures is a highly leveraged transaction. Even if it is correct 1000 times, serious mistakes will lead to disastrous consequences.
Look at Fu Xiaojun's rubber loss 1. 1 billion in just over ten days, the trend of short positions and the fluctuation of rubber in recent years.
Trend of Rubber 20 15 12 to date
Judging from the trend in the last two years, there have been six big trends of rubber, and the amplitude of each time exceeded 10%, with the lowest of 25% and the highest of 1 13%. That is to say, if Man Cang has ten times leverage, the lowest position is two times and the highest position is 1 1 times.
The deceased jumped in the process of the latest drop of 3 1%.
This example is mainly to show that no matter how powerful the master is, if he fights at a high position in the market for a long time, he is basically doomed to explode. There are 2/kloc-0 explosions in two years, and he may escape 20 times, but once Man Cang is doomed.
Therefore, no matter how skilled futures traders are, how well they do fundamental research, how many times they win, and the major mistake of 1 will lead to nothing.