Due to the global development trend of bioenergy, crude oil futures show a strong indication function for the futures prices of general agricultural products. However, gold futures have a strong leading role in metal futures because of its inherent commodity attributes. A researcher in the futures industry told reporters that since there is no crude oil futures in China at present, the interaction between the internal and external markets is strengthened. It is expected that gold futures will dominate the market after listing, which will greatly promote the activity of domestic futures varieties.
More international
The reason why gold futures can attract extensive attention from the investment community is mainly due to its financial attributes. Under the situation of highly integrated global economy, its international financial attributes are also increasingly strengthened. At present, gold is largely regarded as a hard currency that runs counter to the US dollar. Statistics show that the purchasing power of the US dollar has dropped by about 90% since 1970s. The depreciation of the US dollar has stimulated the rise of the price of gold, and the expectation of interest rate reduction with the depreciation of the US dollar has made gold more attractive. The falling dollar also directly led to the increase of gold reserves in the Middle East and Russia since last year. The central banks of South Africa and Argentina also publicly stated that they would recycle gold to increase their reserves. It is expected that countries such as China and Japan will gradually reduce their dollar assets and increase their gold holdings. According to the statistical report of the International Monetary Fund in 2006, gold in China and Japan's foreign exchange reserves only accounts for 1% and 2%, far below the level of several tens of percent in European countries and the United States. From this perspective, the demand for gold will increase greatly in the future. As international gold reserves are an important means for countries to guard against financial risks, the prospect of gold reserves reflects the international financial situation to some extent.
Accelerate integration into the world gold market
China is one of the most important gold producers and consumers in the world, but due to the lack of gold-related derivatives, the gold market system and price formation mechanism have been imperfect. At present, the main reference of domestic gold price is COMEX market in the United States, and its gold trading can often dominate the trend of global gold price. The units involved in COMEX gold trading are mainly large hedge funds and institutional investors, and their transactions have generated great trading power for the gold market; Moreover, the huge trading volume has attracted many speculators to join, and the whole gold futures market has high market liquidity. According to the analysis of relevant traders, an important reason for the recent surge in gold prices is that international funds redistribute asset portfolios and inject more funds into the commodity market.
In fact, as early as 1930s in China, the Shanghai Gold Exchange was once one of the largest gold trading centers in the Far East, and gold speculation was a very popular investment method at that time. At present, in the global distribution of the world gold market, Asia is mainly represented by Hong Kong, and the Hong Kong gold market is mainly aimed at the gold transshipment in the Mainland and Taiwan Province Province and the demand of jewelry industry in Southeast Asia. The listing of gold futures will enable Shanghai to integrate into the world gold service system with a deepening division of labor.
Speculative futures trading is not terrible.
Judging from the current market enthusiasm for gold futures, speculative trading is inevitable. Hedging futures trading is a transaction conducted by gold enterprises to avoid risks and reduce inventory and cost according to the relationship between production and market supply and demand. It is conducive to safeguarding the interests of producers and operators and maintaining the normal production. Speculative futures trading is an investment profit-making transaction that investors make use of the price fluctuation in the futures market, which more embodies the financial attributes of gold investment. Due to the huge leverage and flexibility of gold futures trading, although the admission criteria have been greatly improved in the contract rules of the previous issue to stabilize the market and prevent risks, speculative trading will still be difficult to ban. From the perspective of the international market, speculation sometimes has enough power to control the market, and from another perspective, it is also a catalyst for market activity. Therefore, the insiders believe that the gold futures market should strive to coordinate the development of hedging and speculative forces in the initial stage. Judging from the current situation, gold futures will be extremely active in the short term. It is not ruled out that speculative forces will gradually grow. What the management needs to do is to strengthen supervision, reasonably guide and prevent excessive fluctuations.