202 1 This year is definitely a year in which the price of metal aluminum is riding the wind and waves. Except for a decent callback in mid-May, the whole first half of the year was a volatile upward situation. Like most industrial products, in the traditional off-season of accumulated inventory, prices began to rise continuously. The most important logic is global inflation expectations, from the perspective of aluminum's own fundamentals.
influencing factor
Due to the problems of "double carbon" and "double control of energy consumption" this year, the supply side of electrolytic aluminum has been greatly suppressed, which not only shut down some production capacity, but also partially stranded new production capacity in the future. This is why aluminum is the strongest of all colored varieties.
In the second half of the year, the production capacity of Yunnan, which was previously shut down due to orderly electricity use, will gradually recover, and more new production capacity will be put into production. The increase in the supply side will be more obvious than in the first half of the year. Only the carbon control banner will eventually affect the aluminum production capacity for a long time to come, and the ceiling with a total electrolytic aluminum production capacity of 45 million tons will also move down.
In the future, the demand for imported aluminum will increase year by year. On the demand side, the rapid development of the terminal real estate industry may slow down, but the resilience is still there, and the demand for aluminum will continue to be at a high level. Although the automobile industry was affected by the problem of "lack of core", the growth rate dropped significantly, but it still maintained a positive growth trend year-on-year.
In addition, the rapid development of new energy vehicles will gradually increase the dependence on aluminum alloys for automobiles. Aluminum ingot inventory is still in the destocking cycle for a short time, but it is nearing the end. The point of future inventory accumulation will come in the third quarter, which will also have a certain suppression effect on aluminum prices.