Why do paper towels go up and then up?
The price of raw materials has risen, but the actual supply and demand have not changed much.
Since June 5438+February, 2020, the price increase of household paper has continued to spread. Enterprises in Shaanxi, Hebei, Shanxi, Zhejiang and other places have issued price increase letters, generally raising 200 yuan/ton. Enterprises in Guangxi, the main producing area of bagasse pulp and household paper, ushered in three consecutive rises within one month, and mixed pulp and finished paper generally rose 100-200 yuan/ton. The enterprise also specifically mentioned: cancel the verbal order, the order will go with the payment, and no advance payment will be accepted.
A number of interviewed paper enterprises told Red Star Capital Bureau that the main reason for the price increase was the price increase of paper raw materials such as wood pulp. In addition, in the first half of 2020, the price of paper fell sharply, which was lower than the normal market level. At present, there is also a callback factor in the price increase, and it is expected that there will be room for price increase.
Some paper companies said that after the price continues to rise, paper companies are still not profitable. Why has the ex-factory price of household paper gone up? Is the soaring price sustainable? Will the terminal market price be greatly affected? The Red Star Capital Bureau investigated this.
Why should the price of paper towels increase?
By 5,438 June+3 February 20201,the cumulative increase of finished paper in the second half of 2020 reached 800- 1000 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price rose from the lowest 5,500-5,700 yuan/ton to nearly 7,000 yuan/ton. The ex-factory prices of Vader, Qingfeng and Soul mate have reached12,500 yuan/ton.
Papermaking enterprises
After vicious competition in Hebei paper enterprises
Stimulated by the price increase of raw materials, negotiate price increases.
The raw materials of household paper pulp are generally straw pulp such as wood pulp, cotton pulp, bamboo pulp and sugarcane pulp, among which wood pulp accounts for 82%, and with the high-end of household paper, there is still room for improvement.
The output of paper towels in Baoding, Hebei Province accounts for nearly 30% of the national market. The papermaking enterprises here mainly use wood pulp as papermaking raw materials, including imported wood pulp and domestic wood pulp.
A person in charge of a paper enterprise in Baoding told the Red Star Capital Bureau that in recent years, the price of paper was basically only affected by the price of raw materials. The increase in the price of household paper is mainly due to the increase in the price of raw materials. Since 2020, Hebei paper enterprises have raised prices three times, and individual enterprises have raised prices four times. By 5,438 June+3 February 20201,the cumulative increase of finished paper in the second half of 2020 reached 800- 1000 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price rose from the lowest 5,500-5,700 yuan/ton to nearly 7,000 yuan/ton. The ex-factory prices of Vader, Qingfeng and Soul mate have reached12,500 yuan/ton.
However, he believes that this price has not reached the level of the same period last year, and there is still room for price increase.
According to reports, the current price of pulp board raw materials has risen to 5,900 yuan/ton, compared with only 4,000 yuan/ton in previous years. Other thousands of raw materials and processing fees, Hebei paper enterprises are still not profitable.
The relevant person in charge of a sanitary products company in Baoding told the Red Star Capital Bureau that although there are many paper enterprises in Hebei, they lack leading enterprises and centrally coordinated trade associations. "The price war is famous all over the country!"
"In 2008, the appearance price of finished paper in Hebei exceeded 10,000 yuan per ton. At that time, the production capacity was low, foreign paper enterprises stopped production, and Hebei paper was in short supply. However, with the rapid increase of production capacity, the competition of paper enterprises is fierce, especially in the first half of 2020, the price has never been so low, and individual manufacturers do not hesitate to operate at a loss. There are some callback factors for the price increase now. "
He said that after vicious competition in the first half of 2020, the raw materials in the previous inventory have been exhausted. Facing the environment of rising raw material prices, Hebei large and small private paper enterprises finally sat down to negotiate price increases.
raw material
Important raw materials for papermaking
Sugarcane pulp, wood pulp and bamboo pulp are all rising.
The second largest raw material of household paper is bamboo pulp, accounting for 10% of the raw material structure. In addition, bagasse pulp is also very suitable for household paper, especially in Guangxi, a major sugar-producing province. Bagasse pulp, as a companion of sucrose, is an important raw material for local pulping and papermaking.
The relevant person in charge of a sugar enterprise in Guangxi told the Red Star Capital Bureau that the price increase of paper enterprises in Guangxi was also due to the price increase of raw materials. This time, the price of household paper is rising. In addition to wood pulp, bagasse pulp is also rising.
Making paper with bagasse pulp is a major feature of Guangxi. Bagasse is cooked, washed, screened and bleached to make paper pulp, and then beaten, squeezed, dried, calendered, coiled and rewound to make sanitary base paper. Compared with wood pulp and cotton pulp, sugarcane pulp has the disadvantage of low wet strength, so many paper-making enterprises will mix 5%-30% wood pulp in their production.
The relevant person in charge of a paper enterprise in Guangxi told the Red Star Capital Bureau that it was the time when the old pulp was used up and the new pulp was not produced. Every year 1 1 at the end of the year, the southern sugar cane sugar factory starts production one after another, which is the so-called "harvest season". Bagasse needs more than one month of fermentation, cooking, washing, screening and bleaching before it can be made into pulp. Bagasse used for pulping every year comes from sugarcane harvested in the previous year.
She said that the price of bagasse and bagasse wet pulp has been rising in the last two months, and it is expected to continue until March 20021year, when the supply of bagasse fresh pulp is stable and the price will fall back. "Almost every year. The price was reduced only in the first half of 2020, and now it has risen back, with a large margin. But the current price has not risen to the same level as last year.
Paper-making enterprises in Guangxi are all extended industrial chains of sugar-making enterprises, without purchasing bagasse. But she thinks that the output of bagasse will not change much compared with last year. "The opening hours are the same as in previous years, and the planting area of sugarcane has increased a little. The impact of the favorable policies introduced in Guangxi this year will not be reflected until next year. "
Geng Sai, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang Information, told Red Star Capital Bureau that from June 205438 to October 2020 10, the shortage of raw materials in the sugarcane pulp market was outstanding and the downstream demand was poor, so the starting load of the pulp mill was low. The starting loads of 202 1, 10 and10 are maintained at 4 1%. At the end of 1 10, the start-up situation of the pulp mill improved, but the price of bagasse, the raw material of sugarcane pulp, increased by 20% compared with last year, the cost pressure of the pulp mill increased, and the price of imported wood pulp increased.
In addition, paper enterprises with bamboo pulp as raw material also issued price increase letters. The relevant person in charge of a natural colored paper production enterprise in Sichuan told the Red Star Capital Bureau that not only the wood pulp is rising, but also the bamboo pulp is rising.
Gengsai pointed out that in June 2020, bamboo pulp manufacturers intensively overhauled, and the monthly starting load was 4 1%, which was 6 percentage points lower than that in June 2020. The inventory of the pulp mill has decreased, and the inventory pressure of the pulp mill is not great this month. The cost of stacking original bamboo chips increased, and the price of imported wood pulp continued to rise, so the bamboo pulp manufacturer raised the disk surface by 200-400 yuan/ton.
What is the logic behind the price increase?
Chang Junting, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang Information, believes that the current round of wood pulp price increase focuses on the news, and the actual supply and demand level has not changed significantly. She pointed out that the transmission chain of this round of price increase is: pulp futures drive the spot to rise, which in turn drives the price of wood pulp on the outer disk to rise.
Futures are in stock first and then outside.
The actual supply and demand have not changed, mainly news promotion.
China is the largest importer of raw pulp in the world. The interviewed paper enterprises told Red Star Capital Bureau that the production cost of domestic pulp enterprises is higher than the CIF price of imported pulp, and there is basically no advantage in the competition with imported pulp, which is the consensus in the industry.
Take the spot price of pulp on February 24th, 2020 as an example. Arauco's broad-leaved pulp star's external quotation rose to 545 US dollars/ton (equivalent to 3555 yuan/ton). The domestic mainstream market price of broadleaf pulp is 4000 yuan/ton.
Some analysts pointed out that in the third quarter of 2020, under the influence of factors such as pulp mill production reduction, forest fires and increased demand, the price of pulp in the international market began to rise gradually. The fourth quarter is the traditional peak season, which is expected to support the pulp price.
Chang Junting, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang Information, told the reporter of Red Star Capital Bureau that the import dependence of wood pulp in China is above 60%, and the supply of wood pulp mainly depends on imports, followed by domestic wood pulp. From the perspective of imported wood pulp supply, the imported softwood pulp in China decreased by 1 1.44% in the first 65,438 months of 2020, and the pulp stocks in major regions and ports went out of stock in a narrow range in the last week of 2020; According to the global shipment data, the global shipment of softwood pulp decreased by 5.2% in June 2020 (5438+065438+ 10), among which the shipment to China decreased by 9.6%. According to the standard method, the inventory days decreased by 1 day compared with last month, and the overall supply was slightly tight.
From the perspective of domestic wood pulp supply, the output of broadleaf pulp increased by 2.40%+0-1.03% in June 2020, and the output of chemical pulp increased by 1 1.03% in October 2020.
On the demand side, household paper was passively pushed up by the cost side, while the stock of base paper was reduced to a narrow range under the stimulation of three consecutive price increase letters. In other respects, under the influence of zero import of waste paper at the end of the year, the shortage of packaging paper raw materials stimulated pulp mills at home and abroad to switch to natural pulp, indirectly supported the price of softwood pulp, and further increased the cost pressure of downstream household paper to some extent.
Chang Junting believes that this round of wood pulp price increase is driven by news, and the actual supply and demand level has not changed significantly. She pointed out that the transmission chain of this round of price increase is: pulp futures drive the spot to rise, which in turn drives the price of wood pulp on the outer disk to rise.
On February 24, 2020, 65438+, pulp futures closed at 5396 yuan/ton. On February 25, 2020, at 65438, the increase of pulp futures expanded in the afternoon, once breaking 5600 yuan/ton and closing at 5572 yuan/ton. On February 28, 2020, 65438+, pulp futures closed at 5530 yuan/ton. 65438+On February 29th, pulp futures closed at 5472 yuan/ton.
Kevin·Z, an analyst at CCB Futures, said that the vaccine logic and inflation logic have been continuously strengthened, and the medium and long-term demand expectations brought about by "plastic ban" and "waste ban" have led to the continuous rise of pulp prices again.
On the supply side, the future production capacity of global chemical pulp is relatively stable, and the increase in production capacity mainly comes from broadleaf pulp. Global softwood pulp shipments have returned to normal levels, while hardwood pulp shipments are still at historical highs.
The import of broad-leaved pulp in China is also maintained at a high level, while the supply of softwood pulp will increase in the future due to the opening of the arbitrage window in the second half of 2020. At present, industrial profits are outstanding, the price center of gravity is constantly moving up, the inventory is in a new equilibrium state, the bottom of the industry cycle has gradually stepped out, and pulp will continue to follow the cycle for a long time. However, because the demand side has returned to normal level and the supply side is relatively stable, there is no structural mismatch between supply and demand. In the next stage, we will continue to pay attention to changes in the supply side and the demand side. The simple idea of repairing the early stage will turn to the game between year-on-year and month-on-month, expectation and reality.
Why can't we feel it?
Relevant persons of Hebei paper enterprises told Red Star Capital Bureau that the production capacity of each manufacturer is very large, the supply exceeds demand, and the warehouses are full. Even if the work stops during the Spring Festival every year, dealers will hoard a batch of goods, but the online sales model reduces the dealer's stocking demand.
All Hebei paper enterprises will not be short of paper when they stop working.
The inventory is sufficient and the price increase is not obvious.
"Cable salesmen estimate that if all the household paper production enterprises in Hebei are shut down, there will be no shortage of paper in the market. The inventory of paper mills and distributors, supermarkets and e-commerce can even last for several months. " The above-mentioned relevant person said.
Although paper companies have issued price increase letters, many consumers said in an interview with the Red Star Capital Bureau that they did not feel the obvious increase. Many people hoarded all kinds of household paper needed for one year in the Double Eleven. In supermarkets and e-commerce platforms, you can also frequently see discounts on roll paper and paper drawing.
According to the analysis of the insiders, there are many kinds of domestic household paper brands, and the competition is fierce, which has restrained the growth of domestic household paper retail price to some extent. In addition, the price adjustment notice is sent by the manufacturer to the wholesaler, and it takes a process from the wholesaler to the terminal. In addition, many supermarkets have sufficient stocks, so the price of toilet paper on the market is still relatively stable.
According to public information, at present, the market concentration of China paper industry is low. Data show that the market concentration of China's paper industry is only 3 1.8% compared with 5 1% in North America, Europe and Japan.
Yin Ting, an analyst of Zhuo Chuang Information, explained to the Red Star Capital Bureau that, first of all, the inventory of household paper can be divided into enterprise inventory and circulation inventory. As far as production enterprises are concerned, the inventory situation is a variable value, not a constant. For example, in recent years, there have been frequent letters of price increase in the market. In order to reduce the cost pressure in the later period, the downstream processing plants properly stock up at reasonable prices. For paper enterprises, the inventory at this stage has been reduced.
Second, the price of household paper has risen, which is also a link in the market. First, the base paper enterprises began to adjust prices, and then the downstream processing plants and terminal markets (such as Shang Chao and e-commerce platforms) responded relatively slowly. In addition, the price adjustment of base paper is mostly adjusted in tons. Even if the terminal gains are the same, the increase of finished paper implemented by retail units is not obvious, and some markets still have irregular promotions. 650 in 2020.