Main recommendations
1 1 Caixin service industry PMI hit a five-month high, with obvious expansion.
The country is strengthening the protection of intellectual property rights, and its future growth is highly certain.
Market review
Market comment: Do not aggressively pursue high in operation, pay attention to clear performance growth on dips, and the varieties that are wrongly killed with reasonable valuation?
Macro perspective: In June 165438+ 10, the PMI of China Caixin service industry rose to 53.8, a five-month high.
Insurance industry: the marginal improvement of creditor's rights investment, the plate entered the allocation time.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 278.60, up 0.02%; Copper 49370, down1.10%; Rubber 1 1 175, up by 0.86%; The PVC index was 6500, up by 0.78%; Shanghai Aluminum 13760, down 0.47%; Shanghai nickel 90900, down 0.66%; Iron ore was 487.0, up 2.10%; Coking coal 1330.0, up1.95%; Coke 2 147.5, up1.95%; Wire 3580, up 3.05%; Rebar 3524, up 3.25%; Hot coil 3452, up 3.38%; PTA index was 6248, up by 3.82%; Fiberboard 87.50, up 3.92%; Zheng Chun 25 17, up 4.05%; Brent oil was 62.04, up 0.57%.
Agricultural products: soybean oil 5470, down 0.15%; Corn 1886, down 0.21%; Palm oil 4402, up 0.27%; Cotton 15085, up 0.13%; Zheng Mai 2552, Ping; Sugar 4903, up 0.10%; Apple 1 1525, up 2.47%.
Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1. 13, up 0.05%; USD/RMB 6.85, up 0.30%; USD/HK$ 7.8 1, up 0. 12%.
Main recommendations
In June 1, 1 1, the PMI of Caixin service industry hit a five-month high, with obvious expansion.
Event: Caixin China General Service Business Activity Index (PMI) 165438 released on February 5th recorded 53.8, 3 percentage points higher than that of June 5438+00, reaching a new high in five months.
Comments: The data shows that the business activities of the service industry have obviously expanded, the downward pressure on the economy has obviously eased, the employment situation has remained stable, and the inflationary pressure has further eased. Affected by the "Double Eleven" promotion activities, the business activity index of postal express delivery, telecommunications, internet software and other industries is above 56.0%, and the total business volume has achieved rapid growth. In addition, banking, securities, insurance and other financial industries are all above 60.0%, rising to a higher level of prosperity. With the promotion of "wide credit" in the real economy, the shortcomings of infrastructure construction have been accelerated, and the vitality of economic endogenous growth is expected to be released. There is no danger that GDP growth will stagnate in the fourth quarter.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
2. The country is strengthening the protection of intellectual property rights, and the future growth is highly certain.
Event: On February 4, 65438, the National Development and Reform Commission and other 38 departments jointly signed the Memorandum of Cooperation on Joint Punishment of Serious Untrustworthy Subjects in the Intellectual Property (Patent) Field.
Comments: According to the requirements of the Memorandum, the relevant serious dishonesty will not only be recorded in the credit information system, but also the subject of serious dishonesty will face the application for issuing corporate bonds will not be accepted; Restrict the establishment of financial institutions; There are 33 joint disciplinary measures such as restricting the purchase of real estate and state-owned property rights transactions. The annual report just released by the World Intellectual Property Organization shows that in 20 17 years, the number of domestic applications for intellectual property rights such as patents, trademarks and industrial designs ranked first in the world, which effectively promoted the growth of global applications for intellectual property rights. The intensive publication of relevant documents by China's administrative and judicial departments also shows that the pace of intellectual property protection in China will be further accelerated. With the gradual change of economic development mode, innovation and development have become the main force to stimulate the economy, and the future growth of intellectual property rights is highly certain, so the leading target in the sector deserves active attention.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
Market review
1. market comment: the varieties that are killed by mistake are not aggressively chasing high in operation, paying attention to clear performance growth on dips, and being reasonably valued.
Shanghai and Shenzhen Chuangchuang opened lower on Wednesday, with an increase of more than 1.3% due to the overnight general decline in the periphery and the sharp drop in US stocks. However, the three major indexes rose one after another, almost covering the low gap across the board, but the rising space near noon was blocked again and fluctuated repeatedly throughout the day. As of Tuesday, Shanghai Sanlianyang hit a new high since the current round of rebound, but the volume can shrink obviously. Coupled with the overnight peripheral plunge, the market outlook can only get out of a healthy trend if it continues to make up. It is suggested to focus on the coordination of quantity and energy. If the index is weak in many ways, it may continue to adjust the dishwashing; If the market chooses shrinkage adjustment, then short-term bulls still have greater motivation. At present, although there is a gap below the Shanghai Composite Index, which opened higher on Monday, there is no lack of common support from short-term moving averages. Overall, there is limited room for downward adjustment. In operation, it is suggested that we should not aggressively pursue high, and pay attention to varieties with clear growth and reasonable valuation that have been killed by mistake. It is suggested to pay attention to electronics, communications, food and beverage, and excellent technology stocks, and avoid stocks that rose too high and fell in the previous period. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investing.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
2. Macro view: In June 165438+ 10, the PMI of China Caixin service industry rose to 53.8, a five-month high.
Oriental Fortune Network reported on the 5th that Caixin China's General Service Business Activity Index (PMI) 165438 published on February 5th recorded 53.8, which was 3 percentage points higher than that of 10, and reached a new high in five months, indicating that the business activities of the service industry expanded obviously. With the expansion of service industry, the manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly, which made Caixin China recorded a comprehensive PMI of 5 1.9 in June, which was 5438+0 1.9, which was 1.4 percentage points higher than the 28-month low of 5438+0 in June.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
3. Insurance industry: the margin of debt investment has improved, and the sector has entered the allocation point.
From the perspective of liability business, the new premium of life insurance continued to pick up, and the cumulative growth rate showed a narrowing trend, which led to the continuous growth of NBV; Considering the moderate NBV base in the third quarter of last year, it is expected that the growth rate of NBV in the third quarter of this year will continue to improve compared with the first half; The growth rate of property insurance business is stable, and the pressure of price war still exists after the change of commercial fares. After the integration of newspaper and bank, the cost advantage of large companies is prominent. From the perspective of investment business, the decline of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 in the third quarter narrowed and stabilized, and equity investment is expected to improve compared with the second quarter; In the third quarter, interest rates stabilized and rebounded, and 10-year treasury bonds fluctuated around 3.6%. In the context of overseas interest rate hikes, interest rate decline is expected to ease, and net investment income may remain stable. From the perspective of profit, the negative impact of investment has eased, while reserves have entered an accelerated release stage. It is expected that the growth rate of net profit in the third quarter will increase compared with that in the first half of the year.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)