The concept of market demand forecast refers to the analysis of consumers' purchasing psychology and consumption habits. Market demand forecast is the most important and complicated part in market research. Let's share the concept of market demand forecasting.
The concepts of market demand forecast 1 include:
(1) Forecast the potential demand of one or several products;
(2) Estimation of potential supply;
(3) The estimated market penetration rate of the designed products;
(4) The quantity and quality characteristics of potential demand in a certain period. In addition to all and most products for export, the potential demand for products is mainly based on the domestic market.
Predictive program
Mastering the procedure of market demand forecasting is the most basic part of demand forecasting, and only on this basis can the forecasting work go smoothly to the end.
Select the forecast target
To make a market forecast, we must first make clear what the forecast target is. The so-called goal refers to the specific target items and indicators of the forecast, why this forecast activity should be carried out, and what direct purpose this forecast should achieve. Secondly, it is necessary to analyze the timeliness and accuracy requirements of forecasting, and divide the specific issues such as commodities and regional scope of forecasting.
Market economy activities can be predicted from different purposes, with different purposes, different data and different forecasting methods. With a clear forecast target, we can collect data according to the needs of the target and determine the process and scope of the forecast.
Determine the forecast target, and then analyze the timeliness and accuracy requirements of the forecast. If it is a short-term forecast, the allowable error range should be small, while if it is a medium-and long-term forecast, the error is between 20% and 30%. The regional scope of the forecast should be the market activity scope of the enterprise, and each forecast should be determined according to the needs of management decision. Too wide and too narrow will affect the prediction process.
Collect information extensively
There must be enough market information to make a forecast. Therefore, after selecting and determining the market forecast target, the first task is to collect all kinds of data and information related to this forecast object extensively and systematically. Collecting data is an important part of market forecasting. According to the requirements of market forecast, collect as much information as possible that affects the development of market supply and demand. The more extensive and comprehensive the data collected, the more accurate the prediction will be. Here, market research materials are an important source of information.
The collected market data can be divided into historical data and realistic data. Historical data include social and economic statistics, business activities and market research information over the years. The actual data mainly include the current socio-economic and market development trends, production and circulation situation, changes in consumer demand and so on. The collected data should be summarized, classified and sorted, and it is best to save them by number. In this process, we should pay attention to marking abnormal market data and add and supplement new information in combination with the forecasting process.
Select prediction method
After collecting the data, we should analyze and judge these data. The common method is to tabulate the data and make a chart, so as to compare and analyze it intuitively and observe the laws of market activities. The content of analysis and judgment also includes finding the relationship between influencing factors and market forecast objects, analyzing the relationship between market supply and demand during the forecast period, analyzing and judging the current consumer demand and its changes, and the changing trend of consumer psychology.
In the process of analysis and judgment, we should consider which prediction method to use for formal prediction. There are many methods of market forecasting, and the choice of which method depends on the purpose of forecasting and the available information. Various forecasting methods have their own characteristics and are suitable for different market situations. Generally speaking, the information we have is limited, the time is tight and the accuracy of prediction is low, so we can choose the qualitative prediction method.
With abundant data and sufficient time, quantitative forecasting method can be adopted. In the process of forecasting, several different forecasting methods should be selected as far as possible in order to compare and verify the results.
Establish a model and calculate.
Market forecasting is a market research activity using qualitative analysis and quantitative calculation. In the process of forecasting, these two aspects cannot be neglected.
Some qualitative prediction methods can directly get the prediction results through simple operations. Quantitative prediction method should use mathematical model for calculation and prediction. In forecasting, it is necessary to establish a mathematical model, that is, to use mathematical equations to form the functional relationship between market economy variables, and to abstractly describe the relationship between various economic processes and economic phenomena in economic activities. Then, the obtained information is input, and the preliminary prediction result is obtained by mathematical solution.
Evaluate the results and prepare a report.
The prediction result produced by calculation is a preliminary result, which needs to be evaluated and tested in many aspects before it can be finally used. The preliminary results of inspection usually include theoretical inspection, data inspection and expert inspection. Theoretical test is to use the theory and knowledge of economics and marketing to test the reliability of prediction results by logical analysis.
Data verification is to re-verify and check the data on which the forecast depends, and compare and analyze the new data and the preliminary results of the forecast with historical data to check whether the preliminary results conform to the logic of the development of things and the development of the market. Expert inspection is to invite experts from relevant parties to inspect and evaluate the preliminary results of the forecast, synthesize expert opinions and fully demonstrate the forecast results.
After testing the forecast results, you can prepare to write the forecast report. Similar to the market survey report, the forecast report is also divided into general report and special report, and different types of reports are compiled according to the different requirements of each forecast.
After that, the prediction results are identified.
The completion of the forecast report is not the end of the forecast activity, and the next step is to follow up the forecast results. The market forecast result is a scientific "hypothesis". After all, this "hypothesis" still needs to be verified by the actual process of market development. Therefore, after the completion of the forecast report, it is necessary to track the forecast results, investigate the accuracy and error of the forecast results, and analyze and summarize the reasons, so as to gain forecast experience and continuously improve the forecast level.
The concept of market demand forecast 2 How to write the market forecast report?
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Market forecast report is another special form of research report, which is based on the information and materials about the market that have been mastered, and analyzes and studies it by scientific methods to predict the future development trend.
Basic requirements of market forecast report
1, predictability
The essence of market forecast report is to make a predictable judgment on the future development trend of the market, and minimize the uncertainty and deviation of market demand according to the past history and present situation of the market.
2. Nature of science
In terms of content, the objective operation law of the predicted object can be obtained on the basis of detailed information and supplemented by real and reliable data.
Take ... as the goal
The content of market forecast itself is very limited, and each market forecast can only be aimed at a specific economic activity or product.
Step 4 be timely
Market forecasting is timely, and the more timely the information provided, the smaller the forecasting error will be.
Source of market forecast report
Generally, it includes all kinds of historical materials, statistical data, policies and decrees related to the project; Market economy and the dynamics of supply and demand in today's society; Consumer needs and opinions; Relevant information and data of the same industry.
Structure of market forecast report
1, title
The title generally consists of the name, time, content and language of the unit or region.
Step 2 introduce
The introduction part should be concise, explain the writing purpose, main viewpoints and relevant situation of the forecast report, and briefly introduce the main contents and viewpoints of the full text.
3. Text
It usually includes three parts: status quo, forecast and suggestion, in which forecast is the key point, status quo is the basis of forecast, and the market is deeply investigated; Forecast is to analyze and infer the development trend of the market, with the focus on the forecast results;
Step 4 suggest
Based on the analysis and prediction, some suggestions and measures for improvement are put forward.
Step 5: the ending
Generally, the ending and the beginning should take care of each other, deepen the theme and reiterate the viewpoint of the report.
Problems needing attention in market forecast report
1, data integrity and reliability
Complete and reliable data and information is the basis of market forecast report, and it is also a requirement that must be guaranteed.
2. Reasonable selection of forecast period.
According to the forecast object and target, the forecast period should be selected reasonably, and the occurrence of changing factors should also be fully considered.
3, seeking truth from facts
No matter whether the forecast result is good or bad, we should reflect it truthfully, seek truth from facts, and have the spirit of seeking truth from facts to accurately reflect the market forecast result.
4. Pay attention to timeliness
Forecast report is the premise of making decisions, so we should pay attention to timeliness.
Main contents of market forecast report
1, market demand forecast
According to the current market situation, the future market demand is predicted.
2. Market supply forecast
According to the existing market capacity, production capacity and substitution analysis, forecast the supply capacity of the market.
3. Price forecast
According to the operating income, production cost and financial benefit of the project, analyze various factors affecting the price, and scientifically and reasonably predict the future sales price of the product.
Market demand forecast 3 The concept of potential market demand in China in the future.
First, maintain and continuously create China's super-large-scale market advantage. We must strengthen the basic role of consumption in economic development. With the improvement of people's living standards in China, the consumption structure will be continuously optimized and upgraded. Rigid consumption and traditional consumption are the foundation, new consumption and advanced consumption are the growth points, and reasonable public consumption can be adjusted with the growth of comprehensive national strength. Focus on high-quality brands, promote the development of green, healthy and safe consumption, and encourage the development of new consumption patterns and new formats.
In 20 19, the total retail sales of social consumer goods in China was 410.2 trillion yuan, and in 2020, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 3.6%, approaching 40 trillion yuan; The total scale of the logistics market exceeds 300 trillion yuan, the total international trade is 32. 16 trillion yuan, and the real estate market sales are 17.36 trillion yuan, totaling nearly 400 trillion yuan. The capital market has a market value of 80 trillion yuan. In the future, data elements will become an important market endowment, which will generate huge market capacity and transaction volume.
Together, the total market size of China will exceed 500 trillion yuan. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, the total amount of social retail commodities in China increased by 15.6% on average, by about 10% during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and is expected to increase by 7%- 10% in the future. By 2035, the market size of China will exceed 1 trillion yuan.
The second is to use and integrate existing resources to form a global trade center. China has become the largest country in goods trade and the largest trading partner of more than 120 countries. It has hosted China Import and Export Fair (Canton Fair), China International Import Expo and China International Service Trade Fair, and has nearly 5,000 professional wholesale markets similar to Yiwu, which is qualified to become a global procurement and trade center. In the future, China must focus on building a world import, export and entrepot trade center and become a global trade center.
In 2035, it will basically become a trading power and form the basic framework for building a global trade center; In 2050, it will be built into a world-recognized trading power in an all-round way and become a world trade center with strong modern circulation capacity of import, export and re-export. In the next five years, the total amount of newly added imported goods will exceed 10 trillion US dollars, and it will become a world trade center in the next 15 years.
The third is to build China into one of the important financial centers in the world. With the internationalization of RMB and the improvement of international credit, the proportion of RMB in global reserve currency and the distribution of international trade settlement currency will greatly increase, and RMB will become one of the three pillar currencies. It is estimated that the proportion of RMB in the distribution of international trade settlement currencies will exceed 20% in 2035 and 30% in 2050.
The number of offshore RMB trading centers has increased from the current 13 to 50. The proportion of world futures energy in Shanghai International Energy Exchange Center will increase from the current 12% to about 20% in 2025, 30% in 2035 and 40%-50% in 2050.
The fourth is to build China into one of the countries with the best modern business environment. According to the World Bank's assessment, China's modern business environment ranked 78th in 20 17, 46th in 20 18, 3rd in 20 19 and 2020. China Municipal Government has taken a series of important measures to create a modern business environment, and it is predicted that it will become the top 20 in the world in 2025, 10 in 2035 and the top 5 in 2050.
According to the evaluation of international organizations, the best business environment in China is Hong Kong, and the business environment in China Mainland and Hong Kong has been ranked among the top five in the world. Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is a major strategy of the country. After the implementation of the National Security Law in Hong Kong, Hong Kong society will restore long-term stability, which will first amplify the advantages of Hong Kong's modern business environment in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, thus providing experience for the further improvement of the modern business environment in China.
Fifth, build China into the most open, active and modern market system in the world. At present, there are 65438+400 million market players in China. According to the data of China ICT Institute, the scale of digital economy in China will reach 39.2 trillion yuan in 2020, accounting for 38.6% of GDP; The growth rate of digital economy has reached more than three times that of GDP, which has become a key driving force for stabilizing economic growth.
According to the statistics of China Internet Network Information Center, the number of online medical users in China will be 210.5 million in 2020, and the penetration rate will reach 210.7%. The penetration rate of mobile payment reached 94.7%, and mobile payment increased 27 times compared with five years ago, reaching 266.2 trillion yuan.
Sixth, speed up the construction of a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other. Smooth domestic circulation, rely on the strong domestic market, run through all links of production, circulation, circulation and consumption, break industry monopoly and local protection, and form a virtuous circle of national economy.
To build a new development pattern of mutual promotion of domestic and international two-way circulation, we must use both international and domestic markets and resources at the same time to build a smooth, efficient and low-cost modern circulation system and give play to the leading, basic and decisive role of modern circulation. Cultivate a number of international consumption centers, shopping centers and tourism and leisure centers to build a country with the best modern business environment in the world.