? In the futures market, the number of positions is more important than the volume. Why is it important? The key is that it can better reflect the real situation of the market than the volume. Because futures is a T+0 system, a large number of people do short-term and short-term trading, so the turnover is generally not small, but for positions, what can be precipitated after entering the market is real money, because people have been trading for a longer time, which can more clearly reflect the views of the main market funds on the market from one angle.
? The short-term trend of the market is the embodiment of the will of the main funds involved. Especially for the rising market, if there is no main force to continue to take the initiative to buy, it will be difficult for the market to continue to push, and it will show a trend of continuous jiacang.
? Using this feature, I will introduce you to a small skill of trading.
? The variety I choose is apple.
? After the National Day this year, Apple's 2 10 1 contract rose all the way, from around 7500 before the holiday to the highest 84 12 points, with an increase of more than 900 points. With a margin of seven or eight thousand yuan in one hand, more than 9,000 points were lost in one hand, so many empty orders lost a lot in two days, and even broke positions.
? Then, for Apple, how to short the top has become an art after the fundamentals do not support the surge.
? Look at the daily line above. 10/month 10, leading the market. In trading, the upper lead means that either the bulls take the initiative to make profits and leave the market, or more short-selling main forces join in suppressing the market, because if the bears can't stop loss, then the graph is a rising positive line. As can be seen from the chart, the market has not significantly increased its positions, which means that the probability of bulls leaving the market is greater.
? Next, we will analyze it through more detailed graphics. Look at the picture for the next half hour.
? I drew three yellow lines in the chart, which correspond to the short-term peak of the increase in positions.
? Next, let me explain this chart.
? 1, the previous market rose sharply, but the fundamentals did not match, only the short-term manipulation of the main funds, then I would be bearish. So the direction I choose is short. When shorting, I will refer to the performance of market funds at the pressure level (the previous high point). The previous high point is 84 12 on the left.
? 2. When the market tests a high point, it is Masukura. From a technical point of view, it is the main fund that raises the short-term price through continuous admission, making the price close to the previous high point again and again. Is an active behavior. The reason why the main funds raise the price should be by attracting other bulls to enter the market.
? 3. After approaching the previous high point, the main force immediately significantly reduced its position. From the perspective of capital, the market thinks that this position is already very high, and actively chooses to make a profit and close the position. Then the price has no support and naturally falls sharply.
? As can be seen from this figure, if I want to choose the entry point, the best time is near the early resistance level, and wait patiently for the bulls to enter the market after the Masukura performance. This winning percentage will be greatly improved, and the positions are good.
? Let me analyze this plan for you from the principle of capital. When the main force rises to the resistance level through a substantial increase in positions, the market will have the following choices:
? 1, the bulls take the initiative to take profits. Graphically, it shows a high position to lighten the position and has a long lead.
? 2, the bulls are extremely optimistic, then the market will break through the previous resistance level, there will be a long sunny line on the graph, and the price will hit a new high.
? 3. If it is a short active stop loss, then the graph will show the long lead of lightening the position. Because short stop loss will make the price rise first, and then long take profit will lead to price decline.
? From the above choices, we can find that unless the market breaks through in the later period, then the market will increase the position first and then reduce the position.
? This provides a feasible plan for our operation: wait patiently near the important pressure level and enter the market after the Masukura. Here, I would like to remind you that it is best not to go short when you increase your position substantially, otherwise you will be stuck in a short time in most cases and feel uncomfortable emotionally.