In the 2 1 century, there were many disharmonies in American economy. When people are far from summing up the Enron incident, in March 2007, the announcement that American financial companies are on the verge of bankruptcy in the new century opened the prelude to the subprime mortgage crisis, and the bursting of the American real estate bubble officially made the subprime mortgage problem in the financial market surface. It should be said that the big environment and background of the subprime mortgage crisis is the global excess liquidity and the corresponding asset price bubble caused by the continuous implementation of loose monetary policy in the United States since 2000. In this context, with abundant funds and rising house prices, banks began to expand loans to customers with low credit rating and poor solvency, but the interest rate was higher than the normal level, which enabled lenders to appreciate their houses and banks to make profits. In this process, financial innovative products have lowered the threshold of subprime loan business and diversified the sources of funds related to subprime loans. Lenders also took some illegal actions to expand market share, which led to the continuous accumulation of subprime mortgage scale and housing price bubble.
Since the second half of 2004, the US federal benchmark interest rate has gradually increased from 1% to 5.25% in mid-2006, and the cost of mortgage loan has gradually increased, showing the cumulative effect. At the same time, the interest rate reset after the two-year preferential period of mortgage has been centralized and liberalized. With the decline of real estate prices, the proportion of lenders' default has risen sharply, and lenders have suffered serious losses, which has become the direct fuse of the subprime mortgage crisis.
More seriously, the correlation and conductivity of risks in various markets have caused the turmoil in financial markets and the overall economy. Due to more radical financial innovation and the use of financial derivatives, mortgage borrowers, loan banks, investment banks, insurance companies, hedge funds and other financial intermediaries, as well as subprime bond investors in the secondary market, are bound in a fragile financial chain. When there is a problem in any link, risks and crises will quickly spread to other links in the upstream and downstream. The problems accumulated in American real estate market, credit market, bond market, stock market and American economy itself due to overdraft growth are mutually contagious and collectively released in the systemic risk of falling house prices and rising default rate, which has caused the huge shock wave of this subprime mortgage crisis and radiated to other economies in the world.
Looking forward to the development of the subprime mortgage crisis, Zuo's view that "the global mainstream media seriously underestimated the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis" deserves attention. The crisis and the weak American economy have formed a vicious shock in a certain period of time. Before the economy and the real estate market can be effectively stabilized, the financial system may face a new round of losses and impairment reserves and the subsequent contraction at any time, which will eventually be transmitted to the real economy, gradually affecting every family and individual, leading to a shrinking overall consumption, thus affecting economic recovery. Global investment and financing behavior, credit behavior, mergers and acquisitions, trade, financial innovation and other activities will be greatly suppressed, and the negative impact cannot be underestimated.
The impact of various crises on the futures market is getting deeper and deeper.
Due to financial innovation and deepening, the impact of various crises will be reflected in the high-risk futures market. Looking back on 1997 Asian financial turmoil, Soros's hedge fund used the fragile foreign exchange system and high proportion of foreign debts in Southeast Asian countries as short exchange rate futures, which became the fuse of the crisis. The interaction of foreign exchange market, stock market, banking system, securities and futures markets forms a vicious circle, which leads to the turmoil and recession of the whole economy.
The subprime mortgage crisis still has a certain impact on the futures market. Both Carlyle Capital and Bear Stearns are facing the dilemma of being acquired, because the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis has led to huge losses and liquidity shortage. Since both companies had previously held a large number of long positions in agricultural products, metals and other futures, the outbreak of the crisis forced them to sell at all costs to empty their positions, which led to a sharp decline in the futures market. Soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, corn, copper, gold, crude oil and other futures varieties are all spared, and the domestic futures market is caught off guard and the market risk is huge.
The futures market was originally a place for enterprises to operate steadily and hedge risks, but the risk structure and formation mode of the market are undergoing fundamental changes. If we don't realize this, we may blindly prolong the superficial phenomenon of risk concentration in the futures market, which will have a negative impact on the development of China futures market. With the shortage of international resources and the improvement of science and technology, traditional agricultural products such as soybeans can be transformed into industrial products because of high-priced oil. The impact of macroeconomic changes on the price trends of various commodities is more complicated, and it will have a greater impact on the futures market, which also puts forward higher requirements for the supervision system of regulatory authorities, exchanges and futures companies.
Establish a rapid replenishment mechanism for registered capital of futures companies and a rapid decision-making mechanism for capital replenishment.
The subprime mortgage crisis has brought huge losses to many large financial institutions, so that they have to replenish their capital accordingly. 1On October 5th, Citibank, the largest bank in the United States, announced that it would continue to write off the bad debts of 18 1 billion dollars in the fourth quarter, because it faced the biggest single-quarter loss of 9.83 billion dollars since its establishment in June 2007. In order to cope with the company's capital pressure, in addition to introducing sovereign capital from the Middle East, it will continue to introduce other investors to make up for the capital pressure. Affected by the subprime mortgage crisis, Northrop Bank in the United Kingdom experienced a large-scale run in September last year. For this reason, the Bank of England injected a loan of 25 billion pounds to alleviate the bankruptcy crisis faced by the bank due to liquidity problems and chain reaction of the financial industry. After the loss in the third quarter of 2007, Swiss banks made provision for impairment of subprime loans of 654.38+0 billion US dollars, which led to the decrease of capital adequacy ratio, so they had to issue convertible bonds of 654.38+065.438+0 billion US dollars and 2 billion Swiss francs respectively. It can be seen that it is necessary for financial institutions to control risks, safeguard investors' rights and interests and meet the requirements of net capital management under the framework of Basel Accord. Otherwise, the shortage of capital or liquidity will lead to similar or even worse results as Bear Stearns.
So far, under the risk supervision index system with net capital as the core, the problem that futures companies usually encounter is the bottleneck problem that it is difficult for capital to match the growth of margin during the explosive development of China futures industry, but there is no shortage of funds in the stormy environment. There is a hidden rule of "too big to fail" in the international financial community, because the bankruptcy of large financial institutions has too great a negative chain effect on the economy, which is also the fundamental reason for government organizations to inject capital to save the market, and also puts forward high requirements for the rapid replenishment of funds.
With the continuous listing of new varieties, especially financial derivatives futures, the possible "sources" increase and the impact of the crisis is even greater. When customers suddenly take positions in futures companies for various reasons such as market or risk control management, they need to make efficient capital replenishment decisions to get the funds in place. Therefore, it is necessary for the regulatory authorities to establish a rapid replenishment mechanism for registered capital and a rapid decision-making mechanism for capital replenishment of futures companies while raising the awareness of shareholders of futures companies.
About market supervision
One of the reasons leading to the subprime mortgage crisis is the lack of market supervision, which is not only manifested in the neglect of some irregularities in the hot loan process, but also in the lack of foresight on the development and deterioration of the crisis. This is especially true for the United States, a country with a sound legal system and a mature market economy. Naturally, there are more problems for us to solve.
First of all, after the crisis, it basically broke out simultaneously or gradually in different markets. This is the inevitable result of the high correlation between the economic system and the crisis transmission mechanism. Crises and problems in banking, real estate, securities market, bond market, credit market, insurance market, foreign exchange market and real economy will break out one after another, forming a * * * shock effect. At present, China's financial industry operates separately and implements the supervision mode of "one line, three meetings" of the People's Bank of China, China Banking Regulatory Commission, China Securities Regulatory Commission and China Insurance Regulatory Commission. In the event of a major crisis, storms may occur in different markets at the same time, or some markets may remain calm on the surface but their destructive power will be manifested in the follow-up, which requires the unified coordination and rapid response of different regulatory authorities. In the early stage, the state has put forward the idea of "one line, three meetings", and jointly supervised the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce. The joint meeting mechanism of financial supervision established by the Banking, Securities and Insurance Association has strengthened the supervision cooperation among the three departments, hoping to avoid fragmentation among the departments and form a synergistic effect of overall policies and measures.
The concept of supervision by government departments is also very important. Recently, the CSRC pointed out in its statement on the legal construction of the futures market that "the legal system of China's characteristic futures market has initially taken shape". Indeed, there is still a long way to go in China's reform and development. Emerging and transitional characteristics such as the securities market exist objectively, but more confident and responsible policy makers are needed, and the seriousness, "fairness", integrity and consistency of the legal supervision system are needed.
Although the subprime mortgage crisis is not over yet, its outbreak has become a thing of the past, and the next crisis is the inevitability of economic cycle fluctuations. The root of this crisis is the flood of liquidity caused by the bubble of American network economy and the loose monetary policy after the "9. 1 1 incident". In order to save the economic recession caused by subprime mortgage, the United States and western countries have continuously injected hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system, and the Federal Reserve has continuously cut interest rates substantially. Undoubtedly, this will inevitably lead to a new round of larger liquidity surplus and new problems.
/kloc-the Asian financial turmoil 0/0 years ago was basically unaffected, but the negative effects of this subprime mortgage crisis can not be underestimated. In the next 10 year, China's economic aggregate will expand, the market value of securities will soar, capital projects should have been opened, the marketization process of exchange rate and interest rate will show initial results, and the task of controlling the economy and preventing risks will be more arduous. How to innovate financial products and financial system, how to improve the supervision level of futures industry and control risks are all important issues related to market stability and national security.