The Japanese earthquake has a great psychological impact on China stock market in the short term, but it has little impact on the long-term trend of China futures market. From the macro perspective, there are both positive and negative factors, which are mainly based on three aspects: first, through the influence of exchange rate and international capital flow, second, through empirical research, and third, through the influence of the real economy. First of all, regarding the exchange rate, we believe that the strengthening of the yen is in line with the intention of the Japanese government. Of course, there are two possibilities for future deduction. One is that Japan's economy, which has just recovered from recession, may be hit hard by the earthquake and tsunami, with its growth retrogressing and the yen depreciating. On the other hand, Japan's post-disaster reconstruction will drive demand and attract funds to the affected countries for reconstruction. In the medium and long term, the yen may appreciate. From the first day of the earthquake, the yen fell first and then rose. In either case, Japan's debt is high, so it is more likely to borrow from abroad, which is beneficial for Japan to maintain the strength of the yen. Judging from the experience of other earthquake countries, the local currency is basically strong. If the yen appreciates, then the dollar is unlikely to appreciate. We maintain the annual strategic view that the dollar depreciates and the renminbi appreciates, so we are optimistic about the China stock market. Secondly, empirical research shows that the stock market in earthquake-stricken countries is more likely to fall, and non-earthquake countries are not affected. Judging from the previous major earthquakes, such as Kobe earthquake in 1995, Indonesian tsunami in 2004 and Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, the impact on the economy, stock market and futures market of the United States, neighboring countries and Southeast Asia was not great. Finally, the impact of the real economy is mainly reflected in the demand side. Due to the huge destruction of the logistics system in the earthquake zone, huge casualties and uncertainty of nuclear power facilities, it has a negative impact on the Japanese economy and China's trade.
Judging from the impact of the plate, its logic lies in the rising cost caused by the supply shock of the dominant industries in the earthquake-stricken countries, which is beneficial to replacing industries and damaging the imported raw materials industries (depending on the relevant inventory). Judging from the earthquake in Chile, a copper-producing country, the supply of copper was tight after the earthquake, with a large increase, approaching 10%. There was a trading opportunity in the copper plate corresponding to the futures market, and then it was determined that the earthquake was far away from the copper-producing area, and the related stocks then rushed back. Japan is a major producer of consumer electronics and high-end manufacturing, such as lithium batteries and chips. Due to the supply shock, domestic alternative industries benefited.
The impact on the market, the main influencing factor is that it has a greater impact on other countries' domestic. At present, inflation in China is still at a high level, and inflation expectations have fluctuated. However, it is unlikely that intensive regulation will be introduced in June 5438+February and June 5438+ 10. The earthquake in Japan will also reduce this possibility, although it is not ruled out that there will still be measures to tighten the currency in the future.