As the most concerned part of the yield curve, the yield between 2-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds hit 160. 15 basis points overnight, which was the largest since July of 20 15, and was 155 basis points at the end of the session. On Thursday, the yield of two-year US Treasury bonds rose 2.0 1 basis point to 0. 153 1%. This yield trend is usually in line with interest rate expectations.
Recently, the yield of US bonds has become the key to market sentiment. With the gradual promotion of COVID-19 vaccine in the United States, the fiscal stimulus plan of $65,438 +0.9 trillion has entered the final stage, and the prospect of economic recovery in the United States is more clear. Recently, before the outbreak of COVID-19, the yield of American bonds has been rising to a high point. However, the rise in US bond yields also weakened the attractiveness of other risky assets, leading to a decline in the US stock market in the early stage. Since February, the rapid rise in commodity prices has greatly increased global inflation expectations. With the accelerated recovery of the US economy and the sharp rise of inflationary pressure, the yield of US 10-year treasury bonds has steadily increased from 0.9% at the beginning of the year. March 12 broke through 1.6% and reported 1.609%, the highest since February 2020.
Qi Xiang, a researcher of western futures stock index, will say: There are two main reasons for the recent rapid rise in the yield of US bonds: First, the overseas epidemic situation has accelerated and improved, and the overseas resumption of work and production has continued to develop, leading to a rise in real interest rates again; Secondly, the acceleration of 1.9 and the trillion-dollar economic rescue plan contributed to inflation. People's expectations are rising rapidly. In addition, the adjustment of the Fed's policy framework has also systematically raised the average expected long-term inflation level in the United States. ? Since February this year, the overseas epidemic situation has begun to improve rapidly, the recovery of overseas work and production has continued to advance, and the improvement of the real economy has made the return on capital and the real interest rate rise slowly. Interest rates have begun to show signs of rising. Subsequently, the US Senate and House of Representatives passed the coordination procedure, which greatly reduced the difficulty for Biden's team to implement the $65,438+$0.9 trillion economic assistance plan. The accelerated implementation of the new round of fiscal stimulus plan in the United States has brought about growth and inflation expectations. In this case, the sustained recovery of overseas economy and the expectation of inflation prompted the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds to rise rapidly.