Main recommendations
The new credit in the first quarter exceeded 7 trillion! M2 growth rate exceeded 65,438+00% for the first time in three years.
March excavator sales hit a record.
Market review
Market comment: Domestic policy news was generally stable over the weekend, focusing on stocks with quarterly performance exceeding expectations.
Macro view: much more than expected! In March, social financing increased by over 5 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of M2 soared to 10. 1%.
Game industry: Epidemic isolation has promoted the rapid growth of data traffic such as online entertainment and online games.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 374.34, up 0.60%; Copper 4 1740, up 2.38%; Rebar 3374, up1.93%; Rubber 10300, up by 0.39%; The PVC index was 5460, up by 0.55%; Zheng Chun 1837, up by 0.93%; Shanghai aluminum 1 1845, up1.50%; Shanghai nickel 97330, up 2.48%; Iron ore 6 1 1.5, up 0.25%; Coke 1733.5, up1.52%; Coking coal 1 155.5, up by 2.08%; Brent oil was 35.83, down 3.00%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 5598, down1.45438+0%; Corn 2034, flat; Palm oil was 4788, down 3.19%; Zheng Mian 1 1430, up by 0.22%; Zheng Mai 2589, down 0.54%; White sugar 5347, down 0.24%; Apple 7372, up 0.26%; Jujube 10090, down1.42%;
Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1.09, up by 0.03%; USD/RMB 7.03, down 0.14%; USD/HK$ 7.75, flat.
Second, the key recommendation
1, the new credit in the first quarter exceeded 7 trillion! M2 growth rate exceeded 65,438+00% for the first time in three years.
Event: The data shows that RMB loans increased by 7 1 trillion yuan in the first quarter, an increase of 1.29 trillion yuan year-on-year, of which RMB loans increased by 2.85 trillion yuan in March, an increase of1.6 trillion yuan year-on-year; In the first quarter of 2020, the cumulative increase of social financing scale was 1 1.08 trillion yuan, 2.47 trillion yuan more than the same period of last year. At the end of March, the balance of broad money (M2) was 208.09 trillion yuan, up 65,438+00.1%year-on-year. The growth rate was 65,438+0.3 and 65,438+0.5 percentage points higher than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year, respectively. This is the first time that the growth rate of M2 has exceeded 65,438+since the middle of 2065.
Comments: Judging from the published credit and M2 data, the current monetary policy is in a relatively loose state, which shows the determination of the top management to support the economic downturn to cope with the impact of the epidemic. Judging from the past market performance, the easing of monetary policy is also conducive to the expansion of valuation. Under the policy hedging, the market is expected to maintain a structural market.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
In February and March, the sales volume of excavators reached a historical record.
Event: Recently, statistics released by China Construction Machinery Industry Association show that in March 2020, 49,408 sets of various types of excavation machinery products were sold nationwide. In March last year, the national sales volume of excavators reached a record high of 44,278, and the latest data increased by 1 1.6% on the basis of the original record.
Comments: The sharp rebound in excavator sales in March, on the one hand, made up for the decline in sales in 1 and February, on the other hand, reflected that the increase in infrastructure investment under counter-cyclical regulation drove excavator sales. Under the background of strong certainty of infrastructure investment, the construction machinery industry is expected to maintain steady growth, and the industry leader deserves attention.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
Third, the market review
Market Comments: After the rapid rebound of the market, it is necessary to digest and accumulate more energy, and the operation is cautiously optimistic.
Last Friday, the three major stock indexes all closed at Yinxian, and the turnover of the two cities was 672,654.38+0 billion yuan. Disk observation, titanium dioxide, port water transport, insurance, liquor and other sectors were among the top gainers, while gallium nitride, photoresist, cloud games, domestic chips and other sectors were among the top losers. The two cities have 38 daily limit and 39 daily limit, and the funds in the north continue to be closed. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 2796.63 points, down 1.04%, the Shenzhen Component Index reported 10298.4 points, down 1.57%, and the Shanghai Composite Index reported 1949.88 points, down 2.37%. The overall wait-and-see mood of the market is strong, and the domestic policy news is generally stable over the weekend. In the short term, the epidemic situation in Europe and America has not been clearly controlled, and it will still have an impact on foreign trade in the future. This year's economic fundamentals are under great pressure, and we need to observe the impact of policies in the future. It is expected that the market will still need to be shaken and sorted out this week. The operation will focus on defense, control positions, pay attention to low-valued sectors such as big finance and big infrastructure on dips, pay more attention to stocks with quarterly reports exceeding expectations, and try to avoid stocks with poor performance. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investing.
(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)
Macro view: much more than expected! In March, social financing increased by over 5 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of M2 soared to 10. 1%.
Event: At the end of March, the balance of local and foreign currency loans was 165.97 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.3%. The balance of RMB loans at the end of the month was 160.2 1 trillion yuan, up by 12.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.6 percentage point higher than that at the end of last month and 1 percentage point lower than that at the same period last year. In March, RMB loans increased by 2.85 trillion yuan, an increase of 1. 1.6 trillion yuan year on year.
Comments: Sun Guofeng, Director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, said that in terms of scale, in the first quarter, the Federal Reserve put in liquidity 1 0.6 trillion US dollars, and loans increased by 500 billion US dollars in the same period, that is, the liquidity of1US dollars supported the loan growth of 0.3 US dollars. That is to say, in terms of quantity, the transmission efficiency of the monetary policy of the Bank of China is 10 times that of the Federal Reserve. From the price point of view, the decline of American loan interest rate is much smaller than that of the Federal Reserve. Therefore, through international comparison, the transmission efficiency of China banks is high, and there is no liquidity siltation. Sun Guofeng said that the current liquidity is reasonable and abundant, not flooding, and China is still far from the liquidity trap. Judging from the news, the overall situation is neutral and favorable. ?
(investment consultant? Where's Gu? Registered Investment Consultant CertificateNo.: S026066 1 1020066)
Game industry: Epidemic isolation has promoted the rapid growth of data traffic such as online entertainment and online games.
Game industry: In 20 19, the revenue of listed game companies increased by 25%, exceeding the growth rate of the game industry disclosed by the Game Working Committee 18%. The overall performance report and the first quarter performance are good, and the investment value of the game sector and its related leading stocks with high performance under market fluctuations has attracted attention.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)