If A shares can reach 6,000 points this time, can retail investors make money?

Of course, making money in the stock market relies heavily on market trends, but the most essential thing is your own trading ability and mentality management. If you don’t have these two factors, you won’t be able to hold on even if I give you a gold mountain. .

If it really reaches 6,000 points, retail investors who entered the market during the 2015 stock market crash and did not close their positions should make a profit, because when the Shanghai Stock Exchange reaches 6,000 points, the gains of individual stocks will be differentiated; but most of them The account turned a profit.

The question is, if the Shanghai Composite Index rises to 6,000 points, will retail investors definitely make money and withdraw from the stock market? The answer is no. Even if the Shanghai Stock Exchange rises to 6,000 points, retail investors' accounts will have floating profits, but only a few retail investors will take the initiative to withdraw the floating profits and leave the stock market. Because most retail investors do not have a strategy for exiting stocks, they only know how to buy in a rush and have no idea when to exit the position.

Back in the first half of 2015, the Shanghai Composite Index rose crazily. The mainstream view at that time was that the Shanghai Composite Index would reach 8,000 points or even 10,000 points. At this time, even if the floating profit in our accounts was large, there were still few people closing their positions. . It's just greedy human nature.

The greedy human nature is vividly displayed here. Those who don’t understand will be safe.

There is a concept in the stock market called: the anchoring effect (which refers to the fact that when people make judgments about someone or something, they are easily dominated by the first impression or the first information, just like a person sinking to the bottom of the sea) An anchor fixes people's thoughts somewhere)

The performance of the anchoring effect in the stock market is: when the market is at 5,000 points, and the market drops to 4,000 points, how many people will move to 5,000 points at this time. As the anchor point, I subjectively feel that 4,000 points is a very low price, and there is a great advantage in buying at this price. In fact, 4,000 points is only a relative low, not an absolute low. Therefore, when the market reverses, the first reaction of retail investors is not to close their positions when the risk comes, but to buy more as the price drops, the more they feel cheaper; the result is greater losses.

The psychological changes of many retail investors in the stock market are usually as follows: I will close the position if the price returns to xx yuan; how can I close the position that was originally profitable and is now losing money; if the price returns to no loss, I will close the position. ; Having already lost so much, it can still fall, and another loss will be nothing.

Summary: Reflecting on the changes in the stock market in 2015, many retail investors’ accounts went from profit to big profit to loss to big loss to being trapped (cutting off meat). Retail investors can make money in the bull market, but they can retreat unscathed. Very few.

A story about selling sesame cakes tells you why even if the stock market rises back to 6,000 points, retail investors still can’t get back their money:

There is a market where two people are selling sesame cakes, and There are only two people, we call them Shaobing A and Shaobing B. The price of their sesame biscuits is not regulated by the Price Bureau. They can break even by selling each sesame biscuit for one yuan (including the value of their labor force), and the quantity of their sesame biscuits is the same.

During this period, their business was very bad. No one bought sesame seed cakes. A said: "It's so boring." B said: "I'm so bored too." At this time, you who are reading the story also Said: So boring.

We call the market at this time inactive! In order to prevent everyone from being bored, A and B decided to play a game. So, the real story begins.

A spends one yuan to buy B a sesame seed cake, and B also spends one yuan to buy A a sesame seed cake, and the payment is in cash.

A spends another two yuan to buy B a sesame seed cake, and B also spends two yuan to buy A a sesame seed cake, and pays in cash.

A spends three yuan to buy B a sesame seed cake, and B also spends three yuan to buy A a sesame seed cake, and pays in cash.

......

As a result, in the eyes of everyone in the market (including you who read the story), the price of sesame cakes skyrocketed, and soon it reached 60 yuan per sesame cake. But as long as A and B have the same number of biscuits, then no one makes money and no one loses money, but their assets "appreciate" after revaluation! A and B have "wealth" many times higher than in the past. Their worth has increased a lot, and their "market value" has increased a lot.

At this time, there was passerby C. When he passed by an hour ago, he knew that sesame cakes were one yuan each, but now he found out that they were 60 yuan each. He was surprised.

An hour later, passerby C found that the sesame seed cakes were already 100 yuan each, and he was even more surprised.

Another hour later, passerby C found that the price of sesame cakes was already 120 yuan. He bought one without hesitation because he was an investor and speculator. He was sure that the price of sesame cakes would rise. There is still room for growth, and someone has given a "target price" of more than 200 yuan.

In the stock market, passerby C is the investor, and the person who gives the target price is called a researcher.

Under the demonstration effect of Shaobing A, Shaobing B and Passerby C "making money", more and more passers-by bought sesame cakes, more and more people participated in the buying and selling, and the price of sesame cakes kept rising. Climbing up, everyone was very happy, but strangely: no one lost money.

At this time, you can imagine that whoever A or B has fewer sesame cakes, that is, whoever has fewer assets, will really make money.

Among those who participate in the purchase, whoever has no more sesame cakes in hand will really make money! And those who sold it regretted it because the price of sesame cakes was still rising rapidly.

So who lost money? The answer is: No one lost money, because many people who paid high prices to buy sesame seeds held what everyone recognized as high-quality assets of equal value, that is, sesame seeds. And sesame biscuits are obviously better than cash. The interest earned by depositing cash in the bank is too little, which is not as good as the soaring price of sesame biscuits. Everyone even agrees that the supply of sesame biscuits in the market exceeds demand. Can I buy sesame biscuits futures? So the call warrants appeared.

Someone asked: Will you never lose money buying sesame cakes? Of course not. So when will everyone lose money? For example, a price department came to the market, and he believed that the price of sesame cakes should be one yuan each - supervision appeared

It may also be that there are many people making sesame cakes in the market, and the price is one yuan each - the same theme Stocks appear. Or maybe there's a lot of stuff on the market that's available to play this kind of game - different publishers are coming on.

Or maybe everyone suddenly discovered that this was just a sesame seed cake! ——Value Discovery

Perhaps no one is willing to play the game of buying and selling with each other anymore! ——The truth is revealed

However, if one day, any hypothesis appears, then on that day, those who have sesame cakes will lose money! So who made the money? It is the person who owns the least assets, that is, the person who buys the least sesame seed cakes.

The story of selling sesame cakes is very simple. Everyone thinks that people who buy sesame cakes at high prices are fools, but when we look back at the securities market where we are, some of the so-called asset revaluations in this market, Isn’t this true for asset injection? When ROE is high, the injection of assets at high premiums is actually the same as selling sesame seeds. In the end, whoever owns the least assets will be the one who makes money and whoever gets high returns.

The whole story tells us: As an investor, you should treat asset revaluation and asset injection rationally. You should treat other people’s deceptions rationally, and you must always remain rational after entering the market. After putting it in, people often lose their rationality and get angry. At this time, it is enough not to lose money. Once the loss occurs, the anger will hurt the body, and the failure of stock trading will affect the quality of life, especially for retail investors with small funds.