Second, the market analysis
This month, the price of aluminum fell by more than 1000 yuan/ton, which was the peak season of silver ten, but it suffered a wave of landslide. The reasons are as follows: First, due to the continuous increase in aluminum production, the global average daily output of primary aluminum increased to 68,800 tons in September and 68,600 tons in August. The average daily output of primary aluminum in China rose to 90,500 tons in September and 88,200 tons in August. Second, enterprises are facing large-scale losses. The capacity with the cost below 1 1000 yuan/ton accounts for about 3% of the national capacity, and the capacity with the cost between11000-1500 yuan/ton accounts for 28%, but the reduced capacity in the whole country is still less than the new capacity. Third, after the National Day, manufacturers resumed production one after another, such as Tongchuan and Dongxing. Fourth, the inventory has increased greatly. The latest spot stocks in Shanghai, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Nanhai and Gongyi totaled 6.5438+0.005 million tons, up 50% from 670,000 tons in the same period last year. According to past experience, 10' s destocking ability from late June to Spring Festival is not as strong as that in summer and autumn. Compared with the same period of last year, the operational capacity of this year has not decreased significantly. Under the pressure of 6,543,800 tons of inventory, the process of destocking is long and difficult.
The 80-year-old "China-Aluminum" electrolytic aluminum production line of Fushun Aluminum Company of Chinalco Co., Ltd. stopped production on the 24th. Since then, it has stopped producing aluminum and alloys and turned to producing carbon products of aluminum to make a living. Rusal also said that it has no plans to restart the aluminum smelter that has been idle since 20 13, and is considering further reducing the annual aluminum production by about 200,000 tons. In response to the fall in aluminum prices, manufacturers have cut production and stopped production, but the boost of production reduction to prices is very limited. So far this year, the domestic industry has reduced production by about 2 million tons, but the new output has also increased by about 3 million tons.
Third, the outlook for the market outlook
Near the end of the month, it is reported that China will announce the reduction of feed-in tariff before the end of this year, and it will be announced as early as 165438+ 10. The downward adjustment of on-grid tariff in China will benefit industries with high electricity tariffs, especially electrolytic aluminum production enterprises with electricity tariffs accounting for 40%. However, the surplus pattern in the aluminum industry cannot be reversed in the short term. It is estimated that there will still be 4 million tons of new production capacity next year, so the aluminum price may continue to fall in the later period.
Related listed companies: China Aluminum, Yunnan Aluminum and nanshan aluminum.