During this year’s May Day holiday, the property market in many places across the country showed a rebound.
According to data monitored by CRIC, the real estate market continued to recover during the May Day holiday, with a cumulative transaction volume of 890,000 square meters in 37 key monitored cities. Compared with the same period last year, the five-day decline continued to narrow to 10%. . Among them, the market in first-tier cities recovered in an orderly manner, with the transaction area increasing by 51% year-on-year, while the transaction area in second-tier cities dropped slightly by 2% year-on-year.
Although the market conditions in "Red May" are worth looking forward to, the attitude of the financial regulatory authorities towards real estate has not changed.
There are still illegal flows of credit funds into the property market, and Internet loan risk prevention and control has been upgraded
In order to standardize the Internet loan business operations of commercial banks and promote the stable and healthy development of the Internet loan business. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission issued the "Interim Measures for the Administration of Internet Loans of Commercial Banks (Draft for Comments)" on May 9, setting out detailed regulations and requirements in terms of the amount and flow of Internet loans, risk system management, and cooperative agency management.
Among them, strengthening the management of loan payment and fund use. What has attracted the most market attention is that the "Measures" reiterate and emphasize that "loan funds shall not be used to purchase houses and repay housing mortgage loans, stocks, bonds, futures, financial derivatives and asset management products and other investments, and shall not be used for fixed assets and equity interests." Sexual investment, etc.”
In fact, through the “operation” of intermediaries, some unsecured and unsecured online consumer loans are indeed “closely linked” to the property market.
Wu Ling (pseudonym) who works for a guarantee company said, "If you need to collect a down payment, it is feasible to apply for a loan of 200,000 yuan from each bank and apply for it from several banks together." Wu Ling mentioned " "Applying from several banks at the same time" is a "chronic disease" of commercial bank Internet loans, scientifically known as "multiple bank loans". The time difference between loan application and bank disbursement is usually used to conduct the approval process in multiple banks at the same time. Nowadays, the behavior of "long-term debt" will also attract regulatory attention - "Strengthen unified credit management and prevent excessive credit", "If it is found that the purpose of the loan is illegal or not used according to the agreed purpose, measures should be taken to recover the loan in advance ”
However, the media investigation also found that in addition to the “long-term debt” of online consumer loans to collect down payments, cashing out multiple credit cards is also a way for consumer loans to become “down payment loans”. one. "We can help you contact a dedicated person to apply for multiple large-value credit cards from different banks and withdraw the money for your down payment," said a person from a real estate agency. "If the credit card is not listed in the credit report, it will not affect the follow-up payment." "
Liu Junhai, a professor at the School of Law of Renmin University of China and director of the Institute of Commercial Law of Renmin University of China, said that prohibiting the illegal flow of credit funds into the property market and stock market is a need to prevent systemic risks and to avoid impacts. The need for macro-control policy effects. Internet loans not only emphasize liquidity, but also emphasize the legitimacy and accuracy of capital flows, and should truly serve to guide industrial upgrading.
In addition, the "Measures" also stipulate that commercial banks should determine the credit extension of personal loans and working capital loans for single households for production and operation based on their own risk management capabilities and according to the region, industry, variety, etc. of Internet loans. Amount limit. For the above-mentioned loans with a term of more than one year, the credit corresponding to the loan shall be re-evaluated and approved at least every year. In this regard, the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission explained that setting credit limits for consumer personal credit loans is mainly to prevent the risk of a rapid increase in residents' personal leverage ratios.
The latest report of the central bank once again mentioned "housing is for living, not for speculation"
At the same time, the central bank stated in the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the First Quarter of 2020" released on May 10, It is necessary to adhere to the positioning of "houses are for living in, not for speculation" and the requirement of "not using real estate as a means of short-term economic stimulation", and maintain the continuity, consistency and stability of real estate financial policies.
As for the next step of monetary policy, the central bank reported that prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and appropriate, and grasp the intensity, focus and rhythm of the policy according to the staged changes in epidemic prevention and control and the economic situation. Strengthen the countercyclical adjustment of monetary policy, put support for the recovery and development of the real economy in a more prominent position, use aggregate and structural policies to maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, orderly promote the conversion of existing floating rate loan pricing benchmarks, and unblock the monetary policy transmission mechanism , guiding loan market interest rates downward.
In fact, the central bank previously made it clear in the China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Fourth Quarter of 2019 released on February 19 that it adheres to the positioning that houses are for living in, not for speculation. According to In line with the basic principle of “policing according to the city”, we will accelerate the establishment of a long-term real estate financial management mechanism and not use real estate as a short-term means of stimulating the economy. On March 3, the central bank, together with the Ministry of Finance and the China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission, held a video and telephone conference and once again emphasized that they should adhere to the positioning of housing for living, not speculation and the requirement of "not using real estate as a means of short-term stimulus to the economy", and maintain the continuity, consistency, and consistency of real estate financial policies. stability.
Parallel to several statements, monetary policy has been relatively loose since the beginning of 2020. This year, the central bank has implemented three reserve requirement ratio cuts, the loan prime rate (LPR) has been "cut" twice, the price of money market funds has dropped significantly, and the overall funding situation has been loose.
However, recently, the real estate market in hot cities such as Shenzhen has boomed rapidly, and real estate speculators have begun to wait for opportunities to enter the market, and local supervision has taken action. At the high-level meeting held on April 17, it was reiterated after a few months that it must adhere to the positioning of "housing is for living, not for speculation". Li Qilin, chief economist and dean of the research institute at Guangdong Securities, said that after years of real estate and land-driven economic development models, high housing prices have gradually changed from a positive role in promoting consumption through the wealth effect in the early stage to a debt effect squeezing consumption. negative impact.
Li Qilin analyzed that if money flows into the real estate market again under a loose policy environment, causing housing prices to skyrocket, then not only will monetary easing "go astray" and cause asset price bubbles, but consumption and residents' quality of life will also deteriorate. will further decline, greatly weakening the policies to boost consumption and stabilize the economy. Therefore, even if we are faced with the major challenge of stabilizing the economy and maintaining employment this time, there is a high probability that the policy option of stimulating real estate will not be fully used. Implementing city-specific policies and implementing structured regulatory policies may be the next step in regulating the real estate market.