Recently, china rubber Association Marketing Conference and Tire Marketing Forum was held, and Ge, senior deputy general manager of Zhongce Rubber, and other professionals answered the tire price question. In this paper, Chopin analyzed the ins and outs of tire trends this year.
Zhongce rubber? General Guo Rong
1, the rising price of raw materials has caused great cost pressure to enterprises.
Why is the price increase so crazy this year? The most fundamental reason is the price of raw materials.
1October 28 10, rubber futures daily limit, closing price per ton 16535 yuan. Since then, rubber has repeatedly broken through the 16000 mark, which is "high". According to statistics, the current rubber futures price has risen by 33.45438+0% in less than 1 month after the National Day, which is 80% higher than the lowest point this year!
Ge Guorong said: "In this round of price increase, the procurement cost of tire manufacturers will increase by more than 9%." We have observed that although few tire factories directly raise prices by 9%, it is still common to raise prices by about 3% under cost pressure.
2. There is a certain element of capital speculation.
In Ge Guorong's analysis, the soaring price of rubber this year was caused by the increasing demand for latex gloves and capital speculation. It is estimated that the overall price of rubber will reach a higher level next year, and it will stabilize at around 13000 yuan.
Zhuo Chuang Information Chen Huifang further stated that the decrease in supply and low-level speculation were the main factors for the rise of the price center of natural rubber.
Indeed, the futures price ≠ spot price, and the skyrocketing futures price in a short period of time indicate that there is likely to be "moisture" and speculation. After the heat decays, the glue price should return to the normal level.
3. The tire market quickly picked up, and the price changed from low to high.
China is the first country in the world to announce the COVID-19 epidemic, and it is also the country with the earliest epidemic prevention, the fastest market response and the most remarkable economic recovery. Mr. Zhu, the rubber sales manager, once said: Now the recovery of China tire foreign trade market and the booming supporting market have digested the production capacity of factories, and many factories were once in short supply.
According to the data of the General Administration of Customs, the tire export volume of china rubber in September was 650,000 tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. The export value of rubber tires was 98 1. 1 billion yuan, up by 7.6% year-on-year.
With the rapid recovery of the tire market, it is very reasonable for tire prices to rise after "falling endlessly" in the first half of the year.
In 20 17, the inflation of rubber, the surplus of tires, the serious homogenization of low-end products and the unprecedented prosperity of the whole vehicle market, The cost of human logistics rises in .............................................................................................................................. So, will the grand occasion of 20 17 be repeated this year? Can the tires continue to rise?
Will rise:
The main reason for the rising attitude is that "raw material prices may continue to remain high". Zhuo Chuang Information Chen Huifang predicts that the price of raw materials will remain high before the end of the year, and 202 1 will fall somewhat, but it will not fall to the low price in early 2020.
In addition, industry insiders analyzed that the fourth quarter is a small peak of automobile production and sales, and export orders are still on the rise. Tire prices should still be mainly rising before next year.
Will not rise:
What are the reasons for people who think that tires will not go up again? "Shandong Guangrao Tire" hit the nail on the head: the dealer has no money!
"65438+ 10 month, all the stocks are ready. In June 165438+ 10, dealers in the market, regardless of size, have no spare money to stock. " "Dealers who are overwhelmed by inventory have to withdraw funds for the New Year."
In fact, it's not just a question of having no money. In recent years, the competition between dealers and stores has become fierce and the situation is extremely difficult. From 20 14 to 20 18, the number of motor vehicle maintenance registrations in China decreased from 46 1800 to 429,600. From June to March, 2020, nearly1.65,438+0,000 auto service shops closed down and transferred.
Although the upstream manufacturers control the tire pricing power, the dilemma of the terminal must also be taken care of. For tire enterprises, only dealers can survive and enterprises can survive.
Shandong Guangrao Tire pessimistically predicts that the whole fourth quarter may not go up, and the peak season at the beginning of next year may also be suspended.
How to do it specifically? Ge Guorong gave a rather "alternative" point of view, which was summed up as: "Get the goods early, the later the more dangerous". He said: the first round of price increases boldly took the goods, because the price increase was not enough at all, so there was no need to consider direct follow-up; The second round of price increase can be purchased on demand; The third round should be judged and considered.
Chopin believes that this theorem is very suitable for markets with some bubbles. For investors, the sooner they enter the market, the more they can enjoy the dividends brought by the market fever. The later you enter the game, the easier it is to become a sad "receiver".
In addition, in the tire business, you can't care too much about the temporary profit and loss. In the year of great change, it is particularly important to maintain good cash flow. Whether to hoard goods, the first consideration should be your own strength and demand, followed by the price rise and fall.
What do you think of the current tire market and the future price? Welcome to leave a comment below!
This article comes from car home, the author of the car manufacturer, and does not represent car home's position.