A: Hello, the current decline of steel, coal and electricity is mainly due to the obvious characteristics of the previous theme speculation, the excessive increase in stages and the profit-taking of funds. The core factor of steel and coal is the rise in commodity prices. The dual control policy has increased the expectation of supply contraction, and the state has begun to regulate and control, restrict futures trading, increase coal supply and strengthen price management. With the implementation of the new electricity price regulations, the phased benefits have also been exhausted.

First, the impact of three factors on cyclical industries

The change of the marginal trend of the three makes investors' certainty about the future performance and valuation of cyclical industries decline.

First, the global epidemic has further eased, which has a dual impact on cyclical industries and commodity trends. On the one hand, the alleviation of the epidemic situation makes the capacity supply of cyclical industries increase rapidly; On the other hand, the alleviation of the epidemic will also increase the demand for commodities in cyclical industries, thus pushing up cyclical prices. Weighing the two effects, it remains to be seen that the persistence of cyclical industry price increases.

Second, the Fed's policy is close to the turning point. The ultra-loose policy of the Federal Reserve is the main "engine" of this round of cyclical industry terminal commodity price increase. 1The gradual reduction of the US debt purchase plan in mid-October 165438 means that the main driving force for cyclical industry growth has weakened. Considering the positive impact of economic recovery, the inflection point of global monetary policy makes the price increase of cyclical industries continue to decline.

Third, the "hard constraint" of "carbon neutrality" in the context of global climate agreements is changing to a "soft constraint" that takes into account the two-way goals of energy security and carbon emission reduction. The global carbon neutral and carbon reduction strategy has formed a knowledge, but the sharp rise in energy prices has impacted the economy of China and even the whole world. With the coming of winter, the shortage caused by hard supply constraints will be made up, and the logic of supply shortage and price increase caused by carbon neutral target will be weakened.