The change of corn price depends on two most important factors, one is the supply and demand relationship of the industry itself, and the other is some relevant policies of the state on the industry. The market has changed from policy-led to policy regulation, and the non-dominant corn seed area has been reduced through supply-side reform; At the same time, the restrictions on foreign investment in some industries will be abolished, and the corn deep processing industry will be vigorously developed.
In 20 19, the market will usher in the auction of temporary stored grain, the import of corn and its substitutes, and the fermentation of classical swine fever, which will bring new influences on the market trend in different time periods. Considering that there are still many uncertainties in the future, it seems not advisable to be bullish or bearish on the market. It is a good operation idea to seize the opportunity to enter the market in time and make profits in time before the lack of adequate risk control and hedging means.
20 15-20 18 national average corn price trend chart
Comparison of production and sales price trends of 20 15-20 18 corn
Production area: the area has decreased year after year and the output has increased.
According to the latest statistics of the State Grain Administration, in 20 17 years, China's corn planting area was 42,399 thousand hectares, a decrease of 1779 thousand hectares, with a decrease of 4.03%. The output decreased from 263,665,438+00,000 tons in 2065,438+06 to 259.07 million tons this year, a decrease of 4.54 million tons and a decrease of 65,438+0.72%.
Changes of maize planting area and yield in China from 20/2007 to 0/8.
After implementing the purchasing and storage policy for nearly 1 year, China's corn stock is nearly 200 million tons, which is equivalent to the consumption of about 1 year. The huge inventory prompted the government to take a number of measures to reduce the inventory level, including reducing corn planting area, reducing corn planting subsidies and increasing soybean planting subsidies.
In order to better optimize the industrial structure and make up for the shortcomings of weak soybean production level in China, China has planned to adjust the planting structure of soybeans and corn in 20 18. The key plan is to change and revise the proportion of corn and soybean planting in Northeast China. In view of the trade friction between China and the United States, farmers in China have begun to plan spring sowing, and the income from 20 17 corn planting has really stimulated farmers' enthusiasm. The release time of relevant plans and requirements was slightly delayed, and 20 18 failed to achieve sufficient correction effect. With the introduction of 20 18 China soybean and corn subsidy policy, the soybean subsidy in Heilongjiang province rose to 320 yuan/mu, while the corn subsidy was only 25 yuan/mu. At this level, the benefits of planting soybeans and corn may be equal.
If this subsidy policy is still implemented in 20 19, the corn planting area will be reduced to some extent in 20 19, and the corn planting area of one million or even ten million mu in Heilongjiang may be adjusted to soybean area. According to the 20 18 corn data of the National Bureau of Statistics, it is estimated that the corn production area is 632 million mu. It is conservatively predicted that the national corn area will be over 620 million mu in 20 19, and the yield will be reduced by 3-5 million tons.
Take a look at the existing variables: First, if the sales of new corn in Northeast China are still poor around the Spring Festival, and the price cannot be converted into effective income, farmers' psychology will be further frustrated, and the enthusiasm of 20 19 for planting soybeans will increase, resulting in further shrinking of corn area; Second, before the spring sowing, the Sino-US trade relationship showed a substantial turning point and was significantly favorable, and the Sino-US soybean trade relationship returned to its original state, or caused China to temporarily relax the control of soybean planting mode in a short period of time and correspondingly reduce the level of soybean subsidies, so growers had to carefully consider the relationship between soybeans and corn planting income. There may also be some weather factors. On the whole, the probability of the first possibility seems higher.
Demand side: deep processing increases, and the gap widens.
In recent years, due to the vigorous development of feed consumption and corn deep processing industry in China, the overall demand level of corn has been continuously improved. Relevant data show that in the past three years, China's corn demand has shown an obvious increasing trend every year. On the whole, its annual increment is about 20 million tons, in which the increase of feed demand is higher than that of deep processing consumption.
In 20 17 years, the demand of corn feed industry in China accounted for nearly 90% of the total. 20 18 Some institutions adjusted the data of maize production and demand over the years. Although there is a certain gap in the analysis data given by various institutions, it is estimated that the demand for feed corn will increase by1300,000 ~1900,000 tons in 20 18 years, and the industrial consumption will be before 70-80 million tons. According to the previous growth rate, plus seed use and other consumption, China's corn demand level may reach 240-270 million tons in 20 19. It is generally believed in the industry that the gap between corn production and demand in China in 2065438+2009 is between 30 million and 50 million tons.
However, the swine fever epidemic may curb the increase in corn demand.
The epidemic situation of African swine fever continues to ferment, and the 20 19 pig industry is likely to lead to pessimistic demand for corn. In some areas with serious epidemic situation, the current situation of pig breeding is very pessimistic. According to the survey data, the number of live pigs in some areas may drop by more than 50%, and the price of live pigs may even fall below 5 yuan/kg. Due to the limited transportation of pigs and other factors, the pigs to be slaughtered have been fattened to more than 400 kilograms, but the situation has not changed. The appalling situation caused some farmers to lose confidence, and some farmers began to kill pigs and reduce the stock level to maintain the operation of pig farms, and their willingness to make up the stock dropped to freezing point.
At present, the epidemic situation of classical swine fever has spread from producing areas to selling areas, and the situation of nationwide spread is grim. The embargo on live pigs has further widened the gap between production and marketing areas. Due to the capital chain and other factors, it is bound to accelerate the departure of small-scale breeding units, and the impact of reduced pig production on feed corn is expected to be further manifested in 20 19.
At present, in the annual reports of some institutions, the demand for feed corn in China has been reduced from the annual increase of100000 tons in the past few years to the increase of several million tons. If we are more pessimistic, the demand for feed corn may not increase in 20 19 years, and the consumption of feed corn may maintain the same scale as that in 20 18 years.
In recent years, with the extensive layout of corn deep processing industry, the expectation of increasing deep processing capacity has become a booster for corn demand. However, it remains to be judged whether the new production capacity can be completely transformed into new demand. 20 18, the domestic starch export momentum is strong. In the past, the domestic corn raw grain price continued to rise, and some deep processing profits began to shrink. 20 19 under the mode of high raw grain price, whether corn starch still has price competitive advantage is debatable. In addition, the development prospect of fuel ethanol industry is also very good. China actively promotes the application of fuel ethanol. According to the addition level of 10% in gasoline, there is still a big gap in the supply of fuel ethanol in the next few years. But the gap may be squeezed by destocked rice, and there are rumors that millions of tons of ethanol will be imported from the United States. Corn seems to have little room for ethanol demand.
Therefore, on the whole, the potential of corn demand level in China in 20 19 may be limited, and the demand of some industries and fields may need to be discounted.
Supply side: reserves decrease and imports increase.
In 20 18, China was still in the destocking stage. After the Spring Festival, corn import data began to pick up, reaching a peak in May, and then quickly fell back. The data shows that the total amount of corn, sorghum and barley imported from China in 20 18/20 19 is expected to be 9 million tons, down 44% year-on-year. Excluding brewing barley, the total amount of imported feed grains (corn, sorghum and feed barley) is only 6 million tons, which can replace 5.7 million tons of domestic corn, down 54% year-on-year.
The corn import in 20 18 is estimated to be 3.5 million tons, an increase of 16.70% compared with last year. According to customs data, as of June 2011,the corn import volume has reached 3 1 1 10,000 tons, which is about 10% higher than the actual import volume of 2.827 million tons in June 20 17. Although the price difference between imported corn and domestic corn is around 200 yuan/ton, China has been controlling the import quantity under the influence of high inventory and import quota policy.
The export volume of 20 18 corn is small and can be ignored.
As for substitutes, from June of 20 18 to June of 20 10, the cumulative import of sorghum was 3.648 million tons, a decrease of 888,000 tons compared with 20 17, and the import of barley was 2.73 million tons, a decrease of 491compared with 20 17. In 20 18,1-/kloc-0,000, the cumulative import of ddgs was 266,000 tons, which was1130,000 tons less than that in 20 17. The import volume is huge, and most of it is used for corn substitution, which has a certain negative impact on corn.
2065 438+04-2065 438+08, the amount of import substitution is decreasing year by year, the tariff of trade war is increasing, and imported grain has no great substitution advantage.
Operational thinking: Rational analysis of the impact of corn imports.
20 19 corn market must be inseparable from Sino-US trade relations.
According to the outline of some grain trade agreements released by the media after the G20 Summit, China may purchase a considerable amount of American corn and related products in the future, and the data shows that it is about 20 million tons, which is also an important reason for the overall downward trend of corn futures prices in China. Recently, China's reserve enterprises have begun to purchase 3 million tons of American corn as national reserves. In addition, China has also adjusted the tariff rates of a series of imported goods, and reduced the tariffs and taxes on miscellaneous grains and other products. It is not difficult to imagine that in 20 19, China's agricultural product import policy is expected to be relaxed regardless of whether American products are purchased or not.
For the corn market, purchasing millions of tons of corn for storage has no direct impact on the current market. However, considering that the substitutes such as barley, sorghum and DDGS still have obvious price advantages for corn in China, it is expected that the import link in 20 19 will also bring staged pressure to China's corn market.
Judging from the time stage, from now to spring sowing, domestic corn still needs to be realized in the market. From the perspective of farmers selling grain, substantial import behavior may not occur. At the same time, considering that there are still nearly 80 million tons of temporary stored corn in China that need to be destocked, the import plan of related products may gradually flow in in the form of small batches and multiple batches without affecting the corn market as much as possible. Although the price of new corn is hard to resist the import advantage, the temporary storage of corn in 20 19 is likely to compete with imported corn varieties, so it should not be too passive in the price game.
On the whole, although the gap between production and demand still exists, the overall supply and demand situation of corn in China in 20 19 may be more relaxed than previously expected, but there are various variables in each link.
In view of the favorable situation of grain storage, corn storage and possible deep processing subsidies in the future, the corn market has gained a warm wind. At present, farmers' psychology of selling grain has not completely collapsed, and the spot corn market may not fall further. Before the Spring Festival, the price of corn may fluctuate slightly.
In 20 19, the market will usher in the auction of temporary stored grain, the import of corn and its substitutes, and the fermentation of classical swine fever, which will bring new influences on the market trend in different time periods. Considering that there are still many uncertainties in the future, it seems not advisable to be bullish or bearish on the market. It is a good operation idea to seize the opportunity to enter the market in time and make profits in time before the lack of adequate risk control and hedging means.