From 20 19, to be exact, from June 20 19, the price of gold began to rise. The international gold price broke through the 1500 mark, rising by 20%, and the domestic gold price denominated in RMB rose by 25%. It is also the reason for the different increase in gold. We will explain this in detail later.
Let's talk about how chaotic the world is now.
Trade friction has been quarrelling for almost a year, and the president of a big North American country has turned his face like a book, knocking on the fragile nerves of the global market again and again. The point is that no one knows what his next tweet will be.
The clown president "leads the war" everywhere First, the army besieged the Persian Gulf and put pressure on Iran. Later, his withdrawal from Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty caused panic among the people, and a new round of arms race between the United States and Russia could start at any time.
The global economy is weak, and central banks are scrambling to cut interest rates. Turkey cut interest rates by 425 basis points at a time, which is the most beautiful in the wave of interest rate cuts. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the yields of 2-year and 10-year US bonds were upside down. Faced with the signal reappearance of this economic recession, the market psychology is a little panicked.
By the way, the new British Prime Minister is determined to lead Britain to leave the European Union. In June+10/October, 5438, the probability of Britain leaving the European Union without agreement greatly increased. At that time, it is another farce.
In disorder, shining gold always makes people feel at ease. From 2065438 to 2009, central banks began to reserve gold on a large scale. In the first half of this year, nearly 374.6438+0 tons of gold were allocated, which directly stimulated the demand for gold.
Chaos is a ladder, which is the driving force for the price of gold to rise, although it is not the only factor that affects the price of gold.
Observe the price of gold and pay attention to the interest rate.
Buffett doesn't like gold because he thinks it won't generate interest. However, the current rate of return on interest-bearing assets has been ridiculously low. Germany first issued a 30-year zero-interest national debt, just like a 30-year zero-income wealth management product.
The yield of US 10-year treasury bonds also fell to a historical low. When the interest-bearing assets do not have the interest-bearing function, it will undoubtedly bring more opportunities to gold investment when the interest rate continues to decline.
The gold price has a nearly perfect negative correlation with the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds.
In addition, there are several indicators to judge the price of gold.
1. Is the global central bank increasing its holdings of gold?
In the first half of the year, the total amount of gold purchased by the central bank reached 374. 1 ton, making it the largest net increase of global official gold reserves in the historical data of the World Gold Council 19 quarter.
2. What is the status of global gold ETF?
Global gold ETF total positions hit a six-year high (Source: World Gold Council).
3. What is the long position of 3.COMEX gold futures?
Net bulls have been rising with the price of gold (Source: World Gold Council)
Under such favorable factors, what will happen to the subsequent performance of gold? Dr. Xu Zhiyan, the largest gold ETF fund manager in Asia, believes that "the above factors that promote the rise of gold can last for at least 2-3 years, and they are bullish in the medium and long term. However, this round of gold prices has risen sharply and can enter the market in batches when the market is slightly adjusted back. "
What is the best way to invest in gold at present?
Say the answer first. For ordinary investors, the best way is to connect domestic gold ETF funds.
At the beginning of the article, it was mentioned that Shanghai gold denominated in RMB rose by 25% this round, which was higher than that of international gold denominated in US dollars. The reason is that since April, the RMB exchange rate has entered the depreciation channel against the US dollar, while the price of gold denominated in RMB has increased even more. From this perspective, holding RMB-denominated gold can also hedge the risk of RMB depreciation.
At present, there are 18 gold funds in China, of which 14 only tracks domestic gold and 4 QDII funds track overseas gold. QDII funds are not recommended because of their high transaction costs and slower growth rate than domestic gold funds.
14 of the funds that only track domestic gold, there are 4 ETF funds on the market. Although the handling fee is low, the price fluctuates greatly. Ordinary investors are more suitable for over-the-counter transactions, that is, ETF-linked funds, which do not need market making and have low cost.
From the fee point of view, if you want to hold a gold fund for a long time, you can choose paragraph A, and if it is a short-term transaction, you can choose paragraph C. I strongly suggest that you pay attention to the investment function of gold instead of speculating in gold.
Take Hua 'an Gold Easy ETF Link A(0002 16) as an example, the fund can outperform similar ETF funds with 100% gold.
The reason is that 95% of the fund's funds are used to buy ETF funds in the market, and the other 5% is used to buy gold and rent it to banks or enterprises in need, so that the annualized income of about 1%~ 1.5% can be obtained. It can not only really follow the gold price, but also increase the income.
So, with gold rising so well, do you want Man Cang to enter?
Never, the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the World Gold Council suggested that the allocation ratio of gold in household assets should be 5%~ 10%. The volatility of gold is still unpredictable.