Pvl5: 5-day moving average;

PVOL 10: 10 daily average;

Q&A on price and quantity analysis

Q 1: What is the effect of trading volume on our analysis of the stock market?

Q 2: how to analyze it?

Q 3: Volume and price analysis are often seen in stock reviews. Can you tell me something about it?

Q 4: what is the relationship between the volume of individual stocks and the stock price?

Q&A on price and quantity analysis

Q: How does the trading volume affect our analysis of the stock market?

A: "Deal" is a shopping mall term, which refers to a transaction agreed by the buyer and the seller. In the daily transaction process, the transaction price fluctuates due to the customer's willingness to buy or sell. Influenced by external factors, the stock market has different buying or selling quantities at different trading times and prices, which makes the trading compact and complicated. Investors' beliefs and behaviors in buying and selling stocks directly affect the daily trading volume.

The more investors deviate from the stock values, the more popular the market will be, the more active the trading will be, and the more transactions will naturally occur. On the contrary, it decreases.

Observing the change of quantity and energy and grasping the fluctuation of price at the same time is a complete technical analysis method.

Q: How to analyze it?

A: The volume value is a manifestation of the relationship between supply and demand, and represents the cyclical process of investors' desire to buy stocks in the stock market. This cyclical process reflects the gathering or dispersion of popularity. It takes a while for this popularity to gather and disperse, just like waves. The big waves have passed, there are aftershocks and waves, and there are obvious signs before making waves. Digitizing the crowd is the volume value. At the beginning of a market, the volume value began to increase gradually, until it could not be increased any more, and the market came to an end and entered the sorting stage, and the volume value gradually decreased. Another round of rising market began, the stock price continued to rise, the volume value gradually increased again, and the stock price reached a new peak and remained unchanged. It must be based on a large turnover value, that is, actively changing hands and maintaining the stock price. The stock price fell, the popularity dispersed, and the volume value began to shrink rapidly or slowly. When it can no longer be reduced, the falling market will come to an end, and the stock price will rebound and enter the consolidation stage, and the energy value will increase. Another period of decline began again. The stock price continues to fall, the turnover shrinks again, and the stock price is at a new low and cannot rise. It is because of the weakening of buying gas that supply exceeds demand.

The trading volume also fully shows human nature. The personality of stock market investors can be divided into three types, namely, foresight, unconsciousness and hindsight. The first category is people who are angry and turn off their engines. They buy stocks when the stock market is depressed or slightly improved. People abandon me and take it, gradually changing the relationship between supply and demand, and setting off a buying boom in the stock market. Such investors are a minority. The second category is practitioners, that is, buying stocks when the stock market is good and selling stocks when the general trend turns bad. There are not many such investors. The third category is tragic figures, who rob stocks at the peak of the stock market and sell stocks at the lowest valley. Volume value can be said to be a mirror of the stock market. In the long-term silent market, a large volume of transactions suddenly appeared, indicating that large households and manufacturers have not formed due to speculation. They buy first when they enter the market, but the stock price may not rise immediately. This may be because Depth Charge, a bull, tried to buy, and the volume was not obvious when he expanded and contracted steadily. The stock price keeps rising and actively changes hands, just like a relay race. Due to the operation of large companies and hand-held groups with different stocks and strengths, even if there is a large turnover, some stocks are slowly rising, while some stocks compete for chips on the grounds of "shorting" and quickly raise their share prices. When the stock market buying is stimulated to the highest point, the number of stocks bought by large and powerful groups and handmade groups decreases, and the selling increases, thus adjusting the imbalance between supply and demand in the market. In the short term, the stock price can still be maintained or even hit a new high. However, when the takeover weakened, the trading volume began to decrease, and the relationship between supply and demand also changed. The average moving cost of the stock price is getting higher and higher, and the holders of the stock make less and less profits, which will naturally throw out the stock. In this case, the stock price will fall back. Therefore, Glenat Wei, an American investment expert, once said: "Trading volume is the vitality of the stock market, and the stock price is only its representation, so trading volume usually precedes the stock price." This is another explanation of "seeing the price first and then seeing the price".

There are two types of speculation: positive and negative. The positive materials are the substantial changes of the issuing company, the improvement of the operating conditions and the increase of profits. This phenomenon is gradual, the volume value increases with the rise of the stock price, and it can shrink rapidly when it falls back, and there are few mobile chips, so it is not easy to have a big value. Negative materials are beneficial to the company in the short term and unfavorable in the long term, such as land disposal and equity competition. I made a lot of money, went in and out frequently every day, "made" a lot of transactions, and gradually more followers. As a result, most of the transactions in the hands are no longer operated, and the transaction volume is shrinking rapidly. At this time, the stock price has fallen for some time, which has locked in many followers. The huge high-end transaction value needs to be combed and digested for a period of time. Therefore, it will take a long time for stocks boosted by passive speculation to be seriously injured.

Q: We often see volume and price analysis in stock reviews. Can you tell me something about it?

A: Let's talk about the relationship between the daily weighted index of stock price and the total turnover:

The biggest difference between a bull market and a bear market is the difference in total trading volume. In the upward trend, investors can make short-term or long-term profits by buying stocks, thus stimulating their willingness to invest and making transactions active. Under the initiative to change hands, the total turnover has also continuously set a new record; In the downward trend, when investors buy stocks and intend to sell them, the stock price falls for a period of time, which affects the buying, and the transaction naturally becomes light, and the total transaction value shrinks. This is similar to the natural phenomenon of thermal expansion and contraction, and it is also a way for large families and chefs to make full use of it.

(1) In a bull market, the trend of the stock price is: rising (the total volume increases) → retracing (the total volume shrinks) → fixing (shrinking again) → rising.

(2) In the short market, the trend of stock price is: down (the total transaction amount decreases) → rebound (the transaction amount increases) → stall (the transaction amount decreases) → fall.

Specifically, the total turnover is a thermometer to measure the changes in the stock market. The increase and decrease speed of total trading volume can infer the scale of long and short wars and the fluctuation of stock price index. In other words, the total turnover continues to expand, indicating that the new capital pouring into the stock market is the driving force behind the stock price rise.

The total turnover is closely related to the rise and fall of the weighted stock price index.

(1) The relationship between stock price index and transaction value is like snowballing. In order to make the stock price index rise, the transaction value must be continuously increased.

(2) In a bull market, the initial trading value of each stock market is not large, and it expands with the increase of the index. Until it can no longer expand, the stock price index begins to fall, that is, the highest trading value corresponds to the highest stock price index. Sometimes, although the stock price index continues to rise, the transaction value cannot be higher, and the rising market is likely to end in a few days. "Look at the price first, then look at the price" confirms this. Sometimes at the end of a long-term decline, a huge transfer transaction appears, which makes the transaction value suddenly increase, and the stock price index has since risen.

(3) In the short market, the transaction value of every falling market has shrunk dramatically, indicating that the buying spirit is declining and the stock price index is also declining. Until the transaction value can no longer shrink, the decline will come to an end, that is, the stock price index corresponding to the lowest transaction value is the lowest. Sometimes, although the stock price index continues to fall, the trading value is no longer shrinking, and the falling market is coming to an end.

(4) The highest trading value and the lowest trading value depend on the popularity of the stock market at that time, and there is no fixed standard or formula. Future potential can only be inferred from the size of bull market or short market.

When investors understand the relationship between the transaction value and the stock index, if they can match the moving average theory with the transaction value and establish the 10 daily average system, they can predict the rise or fall of the stock index from the change of long-term transaction records and reduce the error.

Q: What is the relationship between stock turnover and stock price?

A: The rise and fall of individual stock prices are also closely related to trading volume. Volume is the driving force for the stock price to rise and one of the main reasons for the stock price to fall. From the perspective of technical analysis, in the bull market, the stock price rises and the trading volume increases, which shows that the buying power of this stock is greater than the selling power in the relationship between supply and demand. When the stock price falls back, the trading volume decreases rapidly, and shareholders are reluctant to sell. After the supply decreases, the stock price has the motivation to rise again. This is a powerful performance. The stock price rises and the trading volume decreases, indicating that the buying power is weak, and the seller's power may appear at any time. This is weakness. In the short market, the stock price falls, but the increase in trading volume means an increase in supply. Most of them take over the rebound market and have no confidence to hold it for a long time, resulting in upward pressure, or once the stock price rises slightly, the trading volume decreases, which are all weak performances. When the stock price falls and the daily trading volume remains extremely low, it means that there are fewer suppliers, and once the demand increases, the stock price rises immediately.

Judging from the short-term change of stock price, the speed of stock price rise and fall is the result of the strength performance of both long and short sides, and trading volume plays an important role. When the stock price is at a low price, the steady increase in trading volume has the function of adjusting the stock price. When the demand is high, the stock price is more likely to rise sharply. In the process of rising, the volume of trading increases rapidly, and the buying gas gathers and diverges rapidly, which hinders the motivation of continuous rising and the increase will be limited. The volume of transactions rose steadily, and the chips were sorted out by using the decline in stock prices and shrinking volume. The trading volume has increased again, and the stock price has the conditions to rise again. When the stock price is at a high price, the trading volume can no longer be expanded, resulting in an increase in selling intention. Because of the imbalance between supply and demand, the trading volume is shrinking, and the stock price can no longer hover at high prices. Bears use inertia pressure to cause market anxiety, which leads to the market decline. If the turnover shrinks rapidly during the decline, the willingness to sell will gradually weaken, and the decline rate will be blocked and the decline will be limited. If the trading volume decreases or even increases slowly, the market will be affected by investors' psychology of grabbing short-term, and the falling time will be prolonged, which will eventually lead to a sharp drop.

The trading volume of individual stocks depends on the "stock nature" of stocks. If individual stocks are unpopular and have no marketability, and the stock price fluctuation is completely controlled by a few main forces, then the volume has little influence on the stock price fluctuation. In the process of transforming unpopular stocks into hot stocks, the most important thing is to arouse investors' desire to buy, so that more investors can gradually become familiar with this stock and have a sense of identity. It is inevitable that the transaction volume will increase day by day. Different understanding of the stock price makes the stock price fluctuate more and more violently. If the share capital expands too fast, hot stocks may also become unpopular stocks. The old stocks with bad prospects lack the support of large households, and the price depends entirely on the relationship between supply and demand. When investors stop, the trading volume naturally decreases gradually, it is extremely difficult to restore the previous trading volume level, and the stock price elasticity is greatly reduced.

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K9, D9, J9: KDJ is stochastics, and 9 is the independent variable of this index.

Stochastics (KDJ)

Compared with KD indicator, KDJ indicator has drawn three indicator lines, namely indicator line K, indicator line D and indicator line J, where line J is three times the value of K minus two times the value of D. The following focuses on KD indicator.

1. indicator description

Stochastic analysis is a common technical analysis tool in futures and stock markets. It is composed of two lines% k and% d on the chart, so it is also called KD line for short. Stochastics integrated some advantages of momentum concept, strength index and moving average in his design. In the calculation process, he mainly studied the relationship between the price and the closing price, that is, by calculating the true amplitude of price fluctuations such as the highest price, the lowest price and the closing price on the same day or in recent days, to reflect the strong and weak trend of prices and the phenomenon of overbought and oversold. Before the market turns because of the upward trend, most of them will close at a high price every day, and when they fall, the closing price will often close at a low level. Stochastics also fully considers the calculation of the random amplitude and short-term fluctuations of price fluctuations in its design, making its short-term market measurement function more accurate and effective than the moving average, and more sensitive than the power index when forecasting short-term overbought and oversold markets. Therefore, as a short-term and medium-term technology market measurement tool, randomness is quite practical and effective.

apply a principle (to)

Stochastics uses the graphic relationship between% k and% d curves to analyze and judge the price trend. This graphic relationship mainly reflects the phenomenon of overbought and oversold in the market, the trend deviation and the mutual breakthrough of% k and% d, thus indicating the process of peaking and bottoming out of the short-term trend. The specific application rules are as follows:

The judgment of overbought and oversold areas-the general standard of overbought is that the% k value is above 80 and the% d value is above 70. The value of% k is less than 20 and the value of% d is less than 30, which is the general standard of oversold in time.

Reverse judgment-when the stock price trend is high from peak to peak, the stochastic curve is low from peak to peak, or when the stock price trend is low from bottom to bottom, the stochastic curve is high from bottom to bottom. This phenomenon is called spot premium. When there is a spot premium between stocks and the stochastics trend, it is generally a turning point signal, indicating that the medium-term or short-term trend has reached the top or bottom, so we should choose the right trading opportunity at this time.

Judgment on the cross breakthrough of% K line and% D line-when the value of% K is greater than the value of% D, it means that there is an upward trend at present, so when% K line breaks through% D line from bottom to top, it is a buy signal; On the contrary, when the value of% D is greater than the value of% K, it shows that the current trend is downward, so when the% K line falls below the% D line from top to bottom, it is a sell signal.

The crossing breakthrough of% K line and% D line is more accurate when it is above 80 or below 20. The difference between KD line and strength index is that it can not only reflect the overbought or oversold degree of the market, but also realize the function of sorting out trading signals through cross-breakthrough. However, when this crossover occurs near 50, the trading signal should be regarded as invalid.

K-line shape judgment-when the inclination of% K-line tends to be flat, it is an early warning signal of short-term trend change, and the accuracy is high in the market hot stocks and indexes; However, the accuracy is low in unpopular stocks or small-cap stocks.

In addition, there are some theoretical turning points in randomness: the rising or falling speed of K line and D line is weakened and buckling occurs, which usually means that the trend will turn in the short term; After rising or falling for a period of time, the K-line suddenly crosses the D-line quickly, which indicates that the market will turn in the short term: when the K-line falls to zero, it usually rebounds to between 20 and 25, and should fall back to near zero in the short term. At this time, the market should start to rebound. If the K-line rises to 100, the situation is just the opposite.