On the evening of 30th local time, the President of the European Council Michelle said on social media that the EU has reached an agreement on imposing an oil embargo on Russia, "which will immediately cover two-thirds of the EU's oil imports from Russia".
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, said that the ban on Russian oil does not include oil transported by pipeline, which allows dependent countries (almost only Hungary) to continue to import oil, and Germany and Poland will stop importing oil through the Druzhba pipeline before the end of this year.
In addition, at the special EU summit held that day, EU leaders also discussed other sanctions against Russia.
Michelle said that this round of sanctions includes excluding Sberbank, Russia's largest bank, from SWIFT and blacklisting three Russian state media.
Earlier this month, the European Commission submitted the sixth round of sanctions against Russia, including a total ban on Russian oil imports by the end of 2022. At the meeting of EU foreign ministers held in 16, the proposal was not passed due to the opposition of Hungary.
Russian Army's "Most Powerful Non-nuclear Weapon" Appeared
According to the Global Times, the big killers took turns to go into battle, and this special military action became a testing ground for Russia's latest weapons?
"In a special military operation in Ukraine, the Russian armed forces used the latest heavy-duty flame thrower system TOS-2' SZOCSKA' for the first time under combat conditions." The TASS news agency reported on the 28th that the TOS-2 system was used in the direction of Kharkov and was used to attack the positions of Ukrainian armed forces and foreign mercenaries.
Although the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation has not officially confirmed this information, it has long been reported from Russia that Russia's latest heavy-duty flame thrower system was used to combat the Ukrainian army, but no detailed information was given. Now the Tass news agency report is actually the first time to disclose the exact news that the Russian army used this domestic weapon in the battle.
Russian media claimed that, in addition, there is evidence that the footage recently released by Avia.pro agency to attack the positions of Ukrainian armed forces with warm-pressing bombs was previously considered as TOS- 1A, but now it seems that this may be the evidence of using TOS-2 to "hold the Sautska".
Russia's "topwar" website said that the Russian army had previously used the TOS-1ASONITSEPEK heavy-duty flame thrower system in its military operations in Donbass, and American military experts called it "the most powerful non-nuclear weapon in Russian armed forces".
According to reports, TOS-2 "Tuo Sotzka" is an upgraded version of TOS- 1 asolentsepek flamethrower system, which has been improved in many functions, lighter, cheaper and farther moving. For example, it uses wheeled military truck chassis instead of tracked chassis of tanks. Although the off-road maneuverability is poor, it overcomes the weakness of TOS- 1 and the weakness of long-distance deployment of tractor with semi-trailer, and can quickly deploy itself on long-distance roads. It can fire at visible targets within 90 seconds of stopping while driving.
Biden: The United States will not provide Ukraine with rocket systems that can reach Russia.
US President Joe Biden said on May 30 local time that the United States will not provide Ukraine with rocket systems with a range of up to Russia. It is not clear which rocket system Biden is referring to.
Earlier, some media reported that the Biden administration may provide Ukraine with a long-range rocket system.
The market atmosphere turned warmer, and tin and nickel led the gains.
Recently, the overall industrial products have shown a pattern of stabilization and recovery. On Monday, non-ferrous metals floated red in a large area. Shanghai nickel continued to fluctuate strongly after the market rose sharply last Friday night, closing up 5%. Shanghai Tin continued its rebound, closing up 7%.
In terms of external disk, LME nonferrous metals are all red. Nickel surged back, with an intraday increase of more than 7%, once rising above $30,000/ton.
Sun Weidong, a colored analyst at Zhengdong Futures Derivatives Research Institute, believes that the short-term Shanghai nickel futures price rebounded sharply, which was mainly driven by the emotional improvement brought about by the repeated superposition of macro expectations and news stimuli. In fact, the fundamentals have not changed significantly.
On the macro level, the domestic steady growth policy has been continuously overweight, the epidemic control policy has been gradually relaxed, and the market's concern about the slowdown of domestic demand has weakened. In the same period, the growth of inflation indicators in the United States was also lower than expected, and the market's concerns about the Fed's interest rate hike and the accelerated pace of on-balance-sheet contraction also weakened. In this context, the macro expectations in the early stage were excessively pessimistic and the short-term emotional margin improved, which created a rebound environment for the varieties that had fallen sharply in the early stage. In addition, it has been reported recently in Indonesia that the Indonesian government is considering imposing export tariffs on commodities with nickel content below 70% in raw materials. Although there is no specific implementation time and detailed rules, the market will inevitably have new concerns about the export of nickel smelting products such as NPI, MHP and FeNi in Indonesia.
Chen Xiaobo, a researcher at Shang Hui Futures, said that the short-term supply and demand of nickel are weak, and the medium and long-term supply and demand are gradually relaxed. On the supply side, the supply of nickel ore is gradually loose, the demand for ferronickel is poor and the price is weak; Spot import of pure nickel is profitable, and the import volume is expected to increase. On the demand side, the stainless steel factory still has a production reduction plan in June, and the demand for ferronickel is weak; The demand for ternary precursor materials is still tight, and it is difficult to improve it greatly in the short term. With the increase of intermediate supply, the demand for nickel beans decreases. In terms of inventory, the nickel inventory of domestic and foreign exchanges continued to decline, and the support of low inventory remained strong. Generally speaking, in the medium and long term, with the easing of supply and demand, nickel prices are facing greater downward pressure, but there is still strong bottom support at this stage. From this week's point of view, the long and short factors are intertwined, the macro pressure has eased, the fundamental supply and demand are weak, and the low inventory gives strong support to the nickel price. Before the inventory rebounded obviously, the space below Shanghai Nickel was limited, and the short-term interval oscillation was dominant.
"From the perspective of the change of supply and demand balance, both refined nickel and primary nickel are still in the cycle of turning into profit, and the situation of low global refined nickel leading inventory will not last long." Sun Weidong said that the inventory will enter the recovery cycle in the third quarter. From the perspective of trading, it is suggested not to chase more at a high level and pay more attention to the risk of price decline. Judging from the empty list in the middle of the layout, on the one hand, we need to wait patiently for the change of emotional side; On the other hand, the risk of escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian war and Indonesia's policy risk should be kept as observation items, and relevant risks should be considered strategically.
For the recent sharp rise in Shanghai and Wuxi, Liu Yinan, a colored researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, believes that this is partly due to the oversold rebound. Since the beginning of the month, the main contract of Shanghai-Wuxi has dropped from 328,000 yuan/ton to 253,500 yuan/ton due to the weakening of macro sentiment and the unexpected decline of downstream demand, and it still has a drop of about 7% after giving up all the increase this year. Recently, the negative factors have been released, the market sentiment has improved, and the futures price has rebounded at a low level.
Regarding the fundamentals of tin, Sun Weidong, a non-ferrous analyst at Zhengdong Futures Derivatives Research Institute, said that at present, Myanmar's ore imports are gradually weakened by the local epidemic, and it is expected to fully recover soon, and the domestic ore processing fees will increase slightly. The operating rate of domestic tin smelters is relatively stable, and there is still room for growth under the stimulation of high processing costs. In terms of consumption, although the futures price has been greatly lowered recently, the willingness to get goods in spot is dull, the domestic premium is also weak, and the terminal orders are relatively poor. Overseas fundamentals are still weak, and inventories continue to accumulate to historical highs in the same period. "With the correction of domestic prices, the import window of tin ingots was temporarily closed, and the impact on the domestic market was obviously alleviated. We think this is also an important driving force for this round of sharp rebound in tin prices. " He said.
In the short term, Sun Weidong believes that although the domestic supply and demand pattern is facing weakening pressure recently, the surplus is not large and the inventory is expected to remain at a low level. In addition, a large number of domestic steady growth policies have been introduced recently, and the short-term pessimistic expectations of the market have been revised. At the same time, the improvement of the epidemic situation in the Yangtze River Delta region has also boosted consumption. It is expected that the short-term tin price will usher in a rebound window. However, given that the price of tin is still at a historical high and consumption is generally weak, it is expected that there is limited room for rebound.
Liu Yinan also believes that the overall price rebound of tin price will be limited. She explained that although Shanghai's resumption of work and production will be actively promoted next month, there will be a certain degree of replenishment demand in the lower reaches of East China, but some imported tin ingots have entered the lower reaches of East China from Ningbo Port (3.93+0.00%). Generally speaking, short-term replenishment is difficult to sustain and the price rebound is limited. At present, the focus of trading in Shanghai and Wuxi markets has shifted from the strong reality of the previous period. Although the pre-inventory is still at a low level, the spot premium has been adjusted from RMB 10,000/ton at the beginning of the month to the current discount quotation, indicating that the cumulative range of market recessive inventory should have exceeded the current social dominant inventory.
In addition, she also mentioned that Jiangxi Hefeng Environmental Protection's newly-built refined tin smelting capacity 1 10,000 tons/year has been put into production this month, and the finished tin ingots have been sold to the outside world, which will bring new supply pressure to the already weak spot market. Subsequently, with the transformation of the cycle structure and the gradual narrowing of the basis, after the smelter has a strong hedging force, with the dominance of tin ingot inventory, the price may be out of the support of the current oscillation platform. However, due to the high concentration of refined tin supply compared with other non-ferrous varieties, the maintenance of several smelters will have a great impact on the market in the short term, and smelters may also form a joint maintenance alliance in their current positions to counter the losses caused by purchasing high-grade raw materials in the early stage. Investors are advised to pay close attention to the smelter overhaul announcement.
Palm oil fell sharply at a high level
Palm oil fell sharply on Monday, and the main contract fell by more than 3%.
"As Indonesia's palm oil export license quota is 1 10,000 tons, supply concerns have eased and market sentiment has been suppressed. The main palm oil contract opened lower yesterday, closing down 3% and stabilizing at the 10 moving average. " Guo, an analyst of agricultural products (6.66+ 1.99%, diagnostic unit) of Shang Hui Futures Research Institute, told the reporter of Futures Daily that the key to dominate the palm oil market in the short term is Indonesian export and Malaysian supply.
According to him, the new DMO policy is to determine the domestic compulsory sales volume of Indonesian palm oil producers according to their refining capacity and local edible oil demand level, and the fulfillment of Indonesia's domestic market obligations will serve as a reference for approving their export license quotas. The export license of 654.38+100,000 tons is given priority to enterprises that fulfill their sales obligations and have tight tank capacity. The export license will be issued at the end of the month at the earliest. After the partial lifting of export restrictions, the market's concerns about global palm oil supply have eased, but the pace of export is slow. "The export quota is lower than the previous market expectation of 6.5438+0.2 million tons, and Indonesia's export policy changes frequently. The price of palm oil in Indonesia and abroad is upside down, which may lead exporters to continue to hoard stocks and are unwilling to sell at low prices in Indonesia. The effect of DMO's new policy of regulating housing prices remains to be seen. " He reminded.
In addition, Guo Guowei also mentioned that during Indonesia's export restrictions, palm oil importing countries purchased Malaysian palm oil in succession, and it is expected that the supply and demand structure of Malaysian palm oil will tighten in the short term. According to shipping data, from May/KLOC-0 to May 25th, Malaysian palm oil exports increased by 22%-24%, and Malaysian palm oil production was poor. Due to the Eid al-Fitr holiday in May, the working days were reduced and the labor force was in short supply, and the output decreased by 13% compared with that in May, which strengthened the expectation of inventory decline in May and supported palm oil prices to continue to fluctuate at a high level.
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