However, it is estimated that the upward trend of gold at the end of this year will not be too smooth, and it should be a period of sharp oscillation and consolidation. This integration trend may begin to decline before the dust settles in the US election or the Federal Reserve begins to raise interest rates.
Medium-and long-term trend: the probability of falling is higher than that of rising, and there must be rebound and oscillation in the process of falling.
There are several possibilities for gold to continue to rise:
The United States used force against Iran.
Poland's missile defense led Russia to take further action than diplomatic means.
3 The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States has further evolved into a worse situation (leading the Federal Reserve to adopt more radical means of currency issuance)
In one case, gold continues to be bullish.
The reasons for medium and long-term bearishness are as follows:
The trend of gold is negatively correlated with the trend of the dollar.
Now the dollar is gradually strengthening. From the perspective of monetary policy and overall economic environment, the probability of establishing a strong dollar is extremely high. Compared with Europe, the interest rate in the United States is very low. Judging from the recent data, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates one after another (stopped) for the purpose of controlling inflation, but it has curbed economic development. The United States, on the other hand, has cut interest rates continuously (stopped), and adopted a series of monetary policies and emergency measures, which are more sensible than the current monetary policy of the European Central Bank and have produced better results.
Although the interest rate in the high interest rate currency area has a certain effect on curbing inflation, it does hinder economic recovery; At the same time, the trade unions in Europe are very strong, and it is estimated that the central bank will also make concessions (as much as possible to curb inflation). Tight monetary policy, coupled with the spread of the subprime mortgage crisis, has undoubtedly made these areas worse than the United States.
Secondly, in the election year of the United States, the dollar will not depreciate unilaterally (political factors) In this election, Obama has a high probability of winning (the United States needs such a role to tide over the difficulties, at least his coming to power can enhance people's confidence. From the current point of view, this person will definitely be more willing to suppress inflation and high oil prices than the * * * and the party.
Although there is a probability that gold will rise in the short term,
From the perspective of investment, the probability of establishing a strong dollar is extremely high, and it is unwise to buy gold;
From the perspective of speculation, you can find a suitable point to buy in small quantities, but personally feel that the risks and benefits are not reasonable. It is still suggested that shorting rallies is the best policy.
From the perspective of buying jewelry, it will take some time for the international gold price to be transmitted to the retail price. Just buy what you like. After all, a thousand dollars can hardly buy a kind heart.