In 2006-2007, the investment in China's PVC industry grew rapidly for two years, and foreign investors poured into the PVC industry, which made the PVC production capacity increase rapidly. There are several reasons why this industry can attract so much investment. First, the international crude oil price continues to rise, which leads to the price increase of PVC method, which is mainly based on oil and natural gas, while the price of domestic calcium carbide method is relatively low, which has a very competitive market advantage and its profit is higher than the industry average; Second, with the rapid development of domestic construction industry in recent years, the demand for synthetic resin materials, especially PVC, has increased rapidly, leading to an increase in downstream market demand; Third, the market demand of the five general-purpose resins in the domestic market continues to surge, but the price of oil and gas routes is high, so PVC as a substitute has become an ideal choice; Fourth, some coal chemical enterprises see the higher investment return prospect in the downstream market, extend the product industry chain and obtain better investment benefits.

The average annual consumption growth rate of PVC from 1990 to 2003 reached 18.7%, and the average annual capacity growth rate of PVC from 1998 to 2003 reached 20.4%.

I. Overview of Synthetic Resins in China

(a) Sustained, rapid and steady growth of output

In 2007, the output of synthetic resin industry in China continued to grow rapidly, with an annual output of 30.736 million tons, up 18.5% year-on-year, slightly higher than the previous year (see the table below), making China the second largest producer of synthetic resin in the world after the United States. Among them, the output of PVC reached 97 1.7 million tons, up1.9% year-on-year; With the commissioning of ethylene projects in China Shipping Shell and Huizhou, and the reconstruction and expansion of ethylene in Jihua and Daqing, the polyethylene output reached 6.925 million tons, up161%year-on-year; With the expansion of Hainan Refinery, Maoming Petrochemical Company and Dalian Petrochemical Company, the output of polypropylene reached 7,654,380+0.27 million tons, up by 265,438+0.7% year-on-year. The output of polystyrene reached 3.003 million tons, up 9.8% year-on-year; The output of ABS was 6.5438+0.35 million tons, up 654.38+06.4% year-on-year.

From 2000 to 2007, the average annual growth rate of synthetic resin in China was as high as 15.6%. It is predicted that by 20 10, the output of synthetic resin in China will continue to grow rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of about 15%.

(2) The production capacity is mainly concentrated in the eastern coastal areas.

At present, among 3/kloc-0 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China, only Tibet has no synthetic resin production for the time being. The production capacity of synthetic resin is mainly concentrated in East China, Central South China, North China and Northeast China, among which seven provinces and cities in East China account for more than 43% of the total national production capacity, followed by Central South China and North China, accounting for 18.2% and 14.8% respectively, and Northeast China accounts for1.1. The four regions together account for 87. 1% of the national total production capacity, which means that more than 80% of the national synthetic resin production capacity is concentrated in the eastern coastal areas.

(3) The scale of enterprises has been continuously expanded, and the industrial concentration has been improved.

Statistics show that there were 600 synthetic resin production enterprises in China in 2007, with a total output of 30.736 million tons. Among them, the output of Sinopec and PetroChina is 6.5438+0.5056 million tons, accounting for about 50% of the country's total output, accounting for half of the country.

In terms of enterprise development, in 2004, there were 4 enterprises with an annual output of over 500,000 tons, with an annual output of over 654.38+0 tons 1 household; In 2005, the number of enterprises with an output of more than 500,000 tons rose to five, and there were two enterprises with an output of more than 6,543,800 tons. In 2006, the number of enterprises with a capacity of over 500,000 tons jumped to 9, up 80% year-on-year, and the number of enterprises with an annual output of 6,543.8+0,000 tons increased to 3.

Although there are more and more large-scale synthetic resin enterprises in China, their output is also increasing, but their proportion in the whole country has not increased, and there is a slight downward trend. According to statistics, in 2004, the total output of 10 top enterprises accounted for 33.3% of the national total output, in 2005 it was 32.2%, and in 2006 it was 3 1.7%. This situation shows that while large enterprises are developing, the vast number of small and medium-sized enterprises are also seizing the opportunity to strengthen themselves, which also indicates that market competition will be further intensified in the future, corporate restructuring and mergers and acquisitions will be more active, and some small and medium-sized enterprises will be eliminated.

Second, the production capacity analysis of PVC

Since 2004, chlor-alkali industry in China has maintained a good development momentum. Although the sequelae of capacity expansion have already appeared this year, the capacity has still increased substantially. According to the preliminary statistics of China chlor-alkali network, the total production capacity of PVC in China reached 654.38+065.438+05800 tons by the end of 2006, of which the calcium carbide method accounted for nearly 70%.

In 2005, the national output of PVC was 6.492 million tons, an increase of 27.6% over 2004. Among them, the output of ethylene raw material route is about 6.5438 0.2 million tons, accounting for 654.38 0.8.5% of the total output, slightly higher than 890,000 tons in 2004. The output of imported monomers and EDC raw materials is about 1 19000 tons, accounting for 18.3% of the total output, slightly higher than1/5000 tons in 2004. The output of raw material route of calcium carbide acetylene method is about 4102,000 tons, accounting for 63.2% of the total output, which is greatly increased compared with 2.99 million tons in 2004. Calcium carbide method is still dominant. Since 2003, the international oil price has risen sharply, which has increased the cost of PVC by ethylene method, but the production by calcium carbide method has been less affected by this, which has led to a new upsurge in the construction of domestic PVC production facilities by calcium carbide method, greatly expanding the production capacity of PVC by calcium carbide method, posing a great challenge to PVC production by ethylene method, and many ethylene enterprises are on the verge of losses.

In 2007, China's PVC production capacity reached12.08 million tons/year, up 24.5% year-on-year, and the output reached 8.238 million tons, up 23.3% year-on-year. The self-sufficiency rate is about 90%, which is the highest among the general resins in China. From 2000 to 2006, the average annual growth rate of PVC production capacity in China reached 19.8%, and the average annual growth rate of output reached 23%, which was the fastest growing variety among the five synthetic resins, second only to ABS.

III. Production Analysis of PVC

(1) Output of Major PVC Manufacturers in 2006

In February 2006, the total output of PVC in China was 8.24 million tons, including 2.3 million tons by ethylene process and 5.94 million tons by calcium carbide process, which exceeded 70%.

By the end of 2006, there were more than 130 PVC production enterprises in China, of which 27 had an output of over 654.38+10,000 tons, and the others had an output of over 200,000 tons (see the table below). The total output of the top 27 companies is 5.606 million tons, accounting for 68% of the total output. Generally speaking, the average scale of PVC in China is still very small, mainly relying on the number of enterprises to win.

In recent years, although the scale level of PVC equipment in China is constantly improving, it is still not as good as the international average level. At present, the average scale of PVC production plants in China is less than 6.5438+10,000 tons/year, while the average scale of PVC plants in the world is 6.5438+05 ~ 200,000 tons/year, and the largest plant scale exceeds 6.5438+10,000 tons/year. The average installation scale in developed countries such as the United States is 300,000 tons/year, and the gap is even greater. The average installation scale of PVC in Japan is 6.5438+0.5 million tons/year.

In 2006, the ranking of the top ten PVC production in China changed little. Only Cangzhou Chemical fell out of the top ten, because the ethylene production facilities were basically shut down all the year round and replaced by Xinjiang Tianye. Enterprises in Xinjiang are developing rapidly depending on the advantages of cost and energy, and will be a force to be reckoned with in China calcium carbide PVC in the future. Tianjin Otani completed production expansion this year, with a production capacity of 700,000 tons. This year, the output of this enterprise has also surpassed Qilu Petrochemical (600002, stock bar) to become the largest production enterprise in China.

(2) Production analysis of PVC area in 2007.

In 2007, the overall macro situation in China improved, the PVC industry in China maintained a good development momentum, and the output of various production enterprises increased substantially. According to the statistics published by China Petroleum (60 1857, Stock Bar) and Chemical Industry Association, the total output of PVC in China is 97 1.7 million tons, compared with 8 1.65438+ in the same period last year.

Compared with the same period of last year, the output of all regions in China has increased obviously, especially in northwest, southwest, central and north China, mainly due to the rapid expansion of calcium carbide production and rapid increase of output in the above areas. East China and North China are still the main producing areas of PVC in China, and the total output of these two areas reaches about 60% of the whole country. Although the number of enterprises in northwest China is small, they are likely to catch up with the development of chlor-alkali industry.

(3) Analysis of PVC production in each province in 2007

In 2007, the output of the top provinces in China 10 increased significantly. Shandong and Tianjin are the provinces and cities with the largest PVC production in China. Because there is only one chlor-alkali production enterprise in Shanghai, and the crude oil price is high this year, ethylene production enterprises are facing great difficulties, and their output has declined this year, from the sixth place in 2005 to the top ten.

Four. Expansion of PVC production in China in 2007-2008.

Although the expansion momentum of PVC production in China slowed down in 2007-2008, and the production capacity still increased significantly, the expansion in 2008 was significantly lower than that in 2006 and 2007. According to preliminary statistics, the number of new buildings after 2008 is small. With the increase of demand, the whole PVC market is expected to gradually restore the balance between supply and demand.

Demand for PVC in China's Economic Development

Since the beginning of this year, new progress has been made in reform, opening up and modernization, and the national economy has maintained a good momentum of sustained, rapid and healthy development. The overall situation is better than expected and better than last year. According to preliminary accounting, in the first three quarters, the GDP was 7168.2 billion yuan, up 7.9% year-on-year, 0.3 percentage points faster than the same period of last year, of which the added value of the primary industry was 895.9 billion yuan, up 3.0%; The secondary industry was 3.81680 million yuan, an increase of10.0%; The tertiary industry was 2,455.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.6%. The main features of economic development are:

1, the economic growth rate rebounded slightly quarter by quarter. The stability of China's economic growth has been enhanced this year under the dual effects of the national policy of expanding domestic demand and the market drive, and under the joint promotion of domestic and foreign factors. Compared with the same period of last year, the economy grew by 7.6% in the first quarter, 8% in the second quarter and 8. 1% in the third quarter. Industrial production and marketing and import and export trade also showed a trend of accelerating growth quarter by quarter. This shows that the foundation of China's economic growth has been further consolidated.

2. Agricultural production has grown steadily in structural adjustment. The grain planting area continues to decrease, the proportion of high-quality agricultural products (00006 1, Guba) increases, and the regional layout is further optimized. Although the output of summer grain and early rice decreased, the harvest of autumn grain was good, and the annual grain output showed a recovery growth, which is expected to reach 457.5 million tons, an increase of 1. 1% over the previous year. Among the main cash crops, the output of cotton (information, market) and oilseeds will decrease, but the output of sugar, vegetables and fruits will continue to increase, and the production of animal husbandry and fishery will continue to develop steadily.

3. Industrial production is growing rapidly in accelerating structural adjustment. In the first three quarters, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size was 2,248.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.2%. All-round development of industries with various forms of ownership. Among them, state-owned and state-holding enterprises grew by 10.8%, collective enterprises by 8.8%, joint-stock enterprises by 13.5% and foreign-funded enterprises by 12.7%. The growth of heavy industry production is slightly faster than that of light industry. In the first three quarters, the growth of heavy industry was 12.3%, and that of light industry was 12.0%. The adjustment of product structure continued to accelerate, and the production of investment products, high-tech products and new consumer goods adapted to the upgrading of consumption structure maintained rapid growth, becoming the main force driving the rapid growth of industrial production. In the first three quarters, the six major industries, including electronic communication equipment manufacturing, transportation equipment manufacturing, chemical industry, electrical machinery equipment manufacturing, metallurgy and textile, contributed 53.2% to the industrial growth above designated size. Industrial enterprises realized export delivery value 139 1 100 million yuan, up 2 1% year-on-year, and contributed nearly one-fifth to industrial growth.

4. Investment in fixed assets grew rapidly. In the first three quarters, the investment in fixed assets of the whole society was 2,583.8 billion yuan, up 2 1.8% year-on-year. Among them, the investment in fixed assets of state-owned and other economic types increased by 24.3%, and the investment of collective and individual increased by 18.0%, showing a good trend of accelerated growth. Among state-owned and other types of fixed assets investment, capital construction investment increased by 24.6%, renovation investment increased by 16.3%, and real estate development investment increased by 29.4%. In terms of regions, investment in East, West and China has basically achieved synchronous growth. Among them, investment in the eastern and central regions increased by 22.9% and 25.3% respectively, and investment in the western region increased by 25.2%. Agricultural water conservancy, infrastructure, industrial investment and investment in various new service industries maintained steady growth.

5. The domestic market is running smoothly. In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of social consumer goods was 2911billion yuan, up 8.7% year-on-year. Excluding the price factor, the actual growth was 10.2%. Among them, the total retail sales of urban consumer goods184.88 billion yuan, an increase of 9.8%; Total retail sales of rural consumer goods106.23 billion yuan, up by 6.8%. Consumer hotspots such as automobiles, housing and communications maintained rapid growth. In the first three quarters, the sales of communication equipment and automobiles increased by 62.4% and 58.0% respectively. In addition, the sales of commercial housing increased by 3 1.9%, among which the sales to individuals increased by 33.5%, accounting for 9 1% of the total sales of commercial housing. Residents' tourism and cultural consumption have also increased rapidly.

6. The market price continues to run at a low level. In the first three quarters, the price of consumer goods dropped by 0.8% compared with the same period of last year. Among them, the urban area decreased by 1.0% and the rural area decreased by 0.4%. By commodity category, the price of service items increased by 2.0% year-on-year, while the price of consumer goods decreased by 1.6%. In the first three quarters, the retail price of commodities decreased 1.4% year-on-year. The ex-factory price of industrial products decreased by 2.9% year-on-year. Among them, the prices of means of production decreased by 3. 1% year-on-year, and the ex-factory prices of means of subsistence decreased by 2.2% year-on-year. The purchase price of raw materials, fuel and power decreased by 3.2%. From the dynamic point of view, the decline of market prices in the third quarter has tended to narrow, and the year-on-year decline of various prices is lower than that in the previous two quarters. The ring index stopped falling and stabilized, and some of them stabilized and rose slightly.

7. Foreign economic relations and trade grew rapidly. In the first three quarters, the total import and export volume was $44.51billion, a year-on-year increase of 18.3%. Among them, the export was US$ 232.6 billion, an increase of19.4%; Imports were $21260 million, an increase of 17.2%. Imports and exports offset each other, achieving a cumulative trade surplus of $20 billion, an increase of $6.6 billion over the same period last year. Among the total exports, exports to the United States increased by 24.5%, exports to the EU increased by 13.8%, and exports to ASEAN increased by 27.4%. Hong Kong grew by 25.2%, South Korea by 19.9% and Japan by 4.9%. The utilization of foreign capital increased significantly. From June to September, the amount of foreign direct investment agreements reached US$ 68.4 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.4%; The actual utilization of foreign direct investment was $39.6 billion, an increase of 22.6%.

8. Economic benefits have been gradually improved. From June 5438 to August, the total profit of industrial enterprises after breakeven was 324.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10%. Among them, state-owned and state-holding enterprises realized profits of152.6 billion yuan, down 4. 1% year-on-year, and the decline was significantly narrower than that in the first half of the year. From June 5438 to August, the loss of loss-making enterprises was 83.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%. Among them, state-owned and state-holding enterprises lost 50.3 billion yuan, from increasing losses to reducing losses 1. 1%. In the first three quarters, the industrial production and sales rate was 97.6%, which was 0.4 1 percentage point higher than the same period of last year. With the sustained economic growth and the implementation of measures to increase revenue and reduce expenditure, fiscal revenue has gradually reversed the situation of low-speed growth.

9. The growth of money supply accelerated. In the first three quarters, loans from financial institutions increased by 654.38+035.33 billion yuan compared with the beginning of the year, an increase of 4654.38+056.5438+0 billion yuan year-on-year. Various deposits increased by 2,253.5 billion yuan, an increase of 689.8 billion yuan year-on-year. At the end of September, the balance of broad money (M2) was17,698.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%. The balance of narrow money (M 1) was 6,679.7 billion yuan, up by15.9%; The balance of cash in circulation (M0) was 654.38+062.34 billion yuan, up by 7.8%.

10, residents' income maintained rapid growth. In the first three quarters, with the acceleration of economic growth, policies such as increasing residents' income, increasing social security and reducing farmers' burden have produced positive effects, and residents' income has maintained rapid growth. The per capita disposable income of urban residents is 5,793 yuan, and the real increase is 17.2% after deducting the price factor. The per capita cash income of rural residents was 172 1 yuan, with a real increase of 5.3%. At the end of September, the balance of savings deposits of urban and rural residents reached 8,465.438+0.39 billion yuan, an increase of104,665.438+0.3 billion yuan over the beginning of the year, and an increase of 3,565.438+0.3 billion yuan over the same period of last year.

The main problems existing in the current economic operation are: the employment pressure is still great, the effective demand is insufficient, the situation of falling market prices has not been completely changed, the sales growth in rural markets is slow, and the economic structure is unreasonable, which needs to be paid attention to.