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If there is a war, will copper increase in price?
If there is a real expectation of war, commodity prices may fluctuate greatly.

The Fourth Middle East War (1973.10.03-1973.438+00.22).

The biggest regional war in the early 1970s was the Fourth Middle East War, also known as the Yom Kippur War. The warring parties are the Arab world (mainly Egypt and Syria) and Israel, and the fighting place is the Sinai Peninsula in Egypt. The war began on 19731October 65438+6 (Jewish fasting day) and ended on1October 65438+22 in the same year. During this period, in order to resist the interference of Israel and the United States, the Arab world launched an oil war by means of reducing production, stopping production and raising prices.

On the day of the war in 654381October 6, Syria first cut off an oil pipeline, and Lebanon also closed Sidon, an important port for transporting oil in the south.

10 in July, Iraq announced that it would nationalize the shares jointly owned by Exxon and Mobile in Basra Oil Company, a subsidiary of Iraqi Oil Company.

Then, Arab oil-producing countries took three important steps in a few days:

10 6 16, five Arab countries in the Gulf region, namely Kuwait, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, and Iran decided to increase the market price of crude oil in the Gulf region by 17%.

101October 17, the ministerial meeting of the Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, attended by Algeria and other countries10, announced an immediate reduction in oil production and decided to reduce it by 5% every month on the basis of the output of member countries in September; For countries such as the United States that support Israeli aggression, the oil supply will be reduced by 5% month by month.

10 10 18, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates decided to completely stop exporting oil to the United States. Subsequently, Libya, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Algeria, Kuwait, Bahrain and other major Arab oil-producing countries also announced the suspension of oil exports to the United States.

Counter measures in the Arab world caused the first oil crisis, and the price of crude oil soared from $3 in 1973 to a high of $3 in 13, with an increase of 400%. The rapid rise in crude oil prices has caused global hyperinflation. The CPI of the United States rose from 3.6 in 1973 to 8.2 at the end of the year, thus causing global economic stagflation.

The sharp rise in crude oil prices has led to a bull market for commodities. CRB commodity futures index climbed from 130 of 1973 to 2 10, with an increase of 50%.

Judging from the sub-indices, food, metals, industrial raw materials and textiles all showed a general increase, with the increase of metals being the most prominent.