According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics last Tuesday, the national consumer price level rose by 3.4% in May. Since then, the market has been immersed in the hesitation of whether the central bank raises interest rates. In recent years, the prices of palm oil, soybean oil and pork have risen rapidly, which makes the related varieties in the futures market go out of the upward trend. The market has begun to doubt whether agricultural futures will usher in a bull market that continues to rise after energy, metals and precious metals futures. In the future, under the background of excess liquidity, how to find value depressions and avoid value bubbles will be an essential research topic for long-term investment in futures market and securities market.
How did the excess liquidity come from? Why is it so prominent at this stage? In fact, by opening the map of the world, supplemented by the corresponding economic knowledge, we can easily find that since the real large-scale industrial transformation in the19th century, the focus of human development has shifted to the improvement of social and economic life quality and material enrichment. However, the development of each region is not balanced, and the time is also sequential. First, Britain and France, the old colonial empires on the European continent, then transitioned to the uniquely endowed American continent, and then Germany and Japan appeared at the beginning of the 20th century. After two world wars, it has been proved that the consequences of changing material distribution through war are terrible, so the whole world has begun to strive to drive workers to participate in economic construction and improve their quality of life by developing and exchanging needed commodities. In 1950s, the four little dragons in Asia and some countries in Latin America became newly industrialized countries. Then came the all-round rise and rapid development of China and India in 1980s.
It is through this development path that more and more workers pay effective labor and get monetary rewards. As more and more labor is paid, more and more monetary rewards are accumulated. Part of it is converted into savings, which will be saved for later consumption. Then with the rapid development of society, investment desire began to impact the real economy. Because the central bank wants to maintain the stability of the currency and does not want to issue too much money to dilute the value of the original currency of workers, there will be no overall price increase or rapid inflation in the domestic economy and the world economy at present. However, the society has accumulated more and more hot money. When these hot money suddenly flock to a certain commodity field, such as houses, copper, gold, stocks and even stamps and mahogany furniture, then at that moment, the result of more money and less goods can only be an increase in commodity prices.
Judging from the current development situation in China, the bulk commodity sectors that are expected to continuously absorb funds to push up market prices in the future are mainly real estate and stocks. For investors who are involved in the securities market and futures market, they must study whether the relevant commodities are in a value depression or a value bubble, actively intervene in industries and commodities that are turning to an upward trend, and fight repeatedly in various commodity fields until they can become investment choices within five years.
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