According to the principle of microeconomics, when the supply of a commodity exceeds the demand, its price falls, and vice versa. At the same time, price will affect supply and demand in turn, that is, when the price rises, supply will increase and demand will decrease, on the contrary, demand will increase and supply will decrease, so price and supply and demand are interactive.
An important indicator reflecting the relationship between supply and demand is inventory. The inventory of copper is divided into reported inventory and non-reported inventory.
Reported inventory, also known as "explicit inventory", refers to the inventory of the exchange. At present, London Metal Exchange (LME), COMEX Branch of the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) are internationally influential copper futures trading institutions. All three exchanges regularly publish the inventory of designated warehouses.
Unreported inventory, also known as "hidden inventory", refers to the inventory held by manufacturers, traders and consumers all over the world. Because these inventories are published irregularly, it is difficult to make statistics, so they are generally measured by exchange inventories. In recent years, in the total social inventory, the proportion of consumer inventory has decreased, while the proportion of exchange inventory has increased. Therefore, this trend must be considered when analyzing the inventory level.
2. International and domestic economic situation
When analyzing macro-economy, two indicators are very important, one is economic growth rate, or GDP growth rate, and the other is industrial production growth rate.
3. Import and export policies and tariffs;
For a long time, China has always adopted the policy of "wide import and strict export" in copper import and export, so when the domestic copper price is higher than the international copper price, the import of traders will narrow the price difference between the two markets; The opposite is not the case. With the gradual cancellation of export tariffs, copper can basically be imported and exported freely, thus making copper prices interactive at home and abroad.
4. Changes in the development trend of copper industry;
5. Production cost of copper