Last week, the report quoted the data of Dryad Maritime 65438+ 10 as saying that in 20 15, the number of maritime attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Guinea decreased by about one third compared with 20 14.
Florentina Adenike Ukonga, executive secretary of the Gulf of Guinea Commission, said in an interview in Yaoundé, Cameroon last Monday that it was profitable for pirates to rob oil tankers when the oil price was around $0/06 per barrel a few years ago. But with crude oil falling below $30 a barrel, this situation no longer exists. Falling oil prices have made great contributions to reducing piracy and other maritime crimes in the Gulf of Guinea. "。
At present, 1 gallon of crude oil is much cheaper than the same amount of mineral water:
The Gulf of Guinea is one of the richest oil and gas producing areas in the world, accounting for about 5% of the world's oil reserves. In addition to Nigeria, the largest oil producer in Africa, countries with proven oil reserves in the Gulf of Guinea include Angola, Cameroon, Gabon and Congo (Brazzaville).
As the United States and Europe seek to reduce their dependence on the Middle East, the Gulf of Guinea is becoming another important source of oil for them. World-renowned oil giants such as ExxonMobil, Shell, BP, Total and ConocoPhillips all have oil production and exploration projects in the Gulf of Guinea.
Previously, oil tankers in the Gulf of Guinea had been the target of robbery by pirates in West Africa. According to the previous report of the International Maritime Bureau (IMB), the piracy in the Gulf of Guinea even surpassed the Somali coast in 20 12. According to the data of the US Naval Intelligence Office, from 20 12 to 20 13, the incidents of fire, hijacking and boarding in the Gulf of Guinea increased by 25%. However, in the middle of 20 14, oil prices began to fall, and the number of piracy incidents in this area decreased by 18% compared with 20 13.
Tankers "circle" on the sea, just waiting for buyers to appear!
Pirates are not interested in robbing oil tankers, but in the oceans around the world, oil tankers are more and more "running in circles"! According to foreign media reports, today's tankers are no longer pursuing efficiency, and even prefer to waste 20 days to bypass Africa, just to find even one buyer!
At present, the supply of crude oil in the United States exceeds demand, resulting in a large amount of crude oil having to be stored in oil depots or tankers in Galveston Port, Texas, USA. The crude oil storage in the United States is close to saturation, and the crude oil that should be shipped to Europe now is turning around. Now the oil price is close to the ultra-forward premium, but it is still difficult to find a buyer.
According to the latest blog post of the US Energy Agency, the oversupply of distillate oil in Europe has brought about changes in the storage and freight transportation of oil slick. For example, it takes longer (40 days, compared with 20 days before) for oil tankers bound for Europe to divert around Africa. Because there is no buyer for these crude oils, we can only hope that there will be buyers during the voyage of the tanker. There is more and more supply, but the demand continues to decline.
Reuters quoted people familiar with the matter as saying that Cushing's record crude oil inventory is causing logistics problems for energy companies. Enterprise Products Partners is facing the problem of delayed transportation of crude oil, because there are too many oil drums in Cushing area, and it is difficult to move them now. Zerohedge, an American financial blog, warned investors that if you fasten your seat belt, oil prices are likely to plummet further. In early February, Zerohedge warned that the crude oil in Cushing area would exceed its storage capacity.
In order to find suitable storage sites and a few buyers, many energy companies have adopted a strategy to make the tankers that have already set off take longer routes, so that they can have more time to find buyers or find onshore storage facilities for these crude oils. This also allows these crude oils to get a better delivery price in the future delivery period to get a return.
According to the announcement of the exchange, tankers from the Middle East and India to Europe have re-adjusted their routes: bypassing the southernmost Cape gareth to Europe, instead of taking the traditional route of Suez Canal. The new route takes 30-40 days, while the Suez Canal only takes 15-20 days.
What is even more frustrating for participants in the crude oil market is that the above phenomenon may not be alleviated in a short time. It is reported that although Saudi Arabia and Russia reached an oil production freeze agreement last week, they failed to stop the biggest long-term production reduction since July last year. At present, the complete recovery of the oil market is still far away!
Goldman Sachs, the Wall Street investment bank, said that the agreement reached between Saudi Arabia and Russia on February 16 would not revive oil prices. Iran expressed its support for this agreement, but did not say whether it would limit production. Iran lifted its ban on oil exports last month because it met the requirements of the nuclear agreement.
Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, said, "This agreement will not help reduce supply. Iran may exploit as much oil as possible to regain some market share. "
According to the data of Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of the week of February 16, the speculative long position of West Texas Intermediate futures and options decreased by 5.3%, the largest decline in seven months. Although in the week ending February 16, the futures price of West Texas Intermediate rose by 3.9% to $29.04/barrel.
In addition, the net short position of ultra-low sulfur diesel in the United States decreased by 27 12 lots to 19445 lots, a decrease of 12%. During the same period, the price of diesel futures climbed by 5.3%. The New York Mercantile Exchange's net long position in gasoline increased by 70% to 23,943 lots, while the futures price rose by 8% in the same period.
Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citi Futures Perspective, said, "Nothing happened in the crude oil market, and there was no shortage of production."
According to the data of american petroleum institute (API) monthly report, the average oil production of the United States in June was 5438+ 10, which decreased by 1.4% year-on-year to 92 million barrels per day, which was the fourth consecutive month of decline. At the same time, although the frozen production agreement is the first joint action of the two major oil producers in the world to deal with the decline in oil prices in more than a decade, the crude oil output of Saudi Arabia and Russia almost reached a record high last month.
Judging from the monthly chart of crude oil, the oil market is still experiencing one of the biggest bear markets in history. From July 20 14 to now, the oil price has dropped by more than 70%: