Most people will encounter an embarrassing problem, that is, the list is quilt cover. After we stop the loss, the result is hit in the face-the market immediately rebounds. That is to say. If we don't stop the loss, we can bring it back and there will be no loss in the account. Moreover, the face was hit too much. This situation did not appear once or twice, but many times, and our account even died in constant stop loss. Finally, we don't want to stop loss, and we don't want to stop loss. Why can most of our quilt orders be carried back without stop loss? Shall we stop the loss? Let's talk about this problem. 1. Statistics show that most quilt sheets can be carried forward. The risk control director of a large futures company made a statistical analysis of the customer transaction data in the past three years. The conclusion runs counter to common sense: customers who trade more than 10 times a day have an average yield of-79.2% in three years; For customers who trade more than 5 times a day on average, the 3-year average yield is-55%; For customers whose daily transactions exceed 1 time, the 3-year average yield is-31.5%; For customers who trade more than 0.3 times a day, the 3-year average yield is12%; For customers who trade 0./kloc-0 times a day, the 3-year average yield is 59%. 2. If all stop-loss orders are uneven, there is a 98.8% probability of turning losses into profits in the next two weeks. The second point is interesting. This sentence seems to indicate that most of our stops are wrong. Of course, 98.8% of the stops are wrong, especially for large groups. These large groups are disorderly, unorganized and irregular, which leads to disorderly stop loss, and the probability of intraday trading, stop loss and natural error stop loss is very high. In fact, even if we don't consider these chaotic groups, for those of us who follow the trend regularly, if we don't stop the loss, 70% of the quilt orders will be untied at some time in the future, giving us a chance to leave without loss. Second, why can most of our quilts and sheets be recited? The first reason is that the market is fluctuating most of the time, fluctuating up and down, chaotic and disorderly. Therefore, many times the market has no trend, and it is a chaotic market. When you get into the quilt cover, you will always have a chance to get rid of it in the ups and downs, unless you happen to be near the lowest point of this shock range, or closer to the highest point of this shock range. Of course, the next market will go out of the direction. If the following market breaks upward, then if you do more at the high level of the shock range, it will naturally be solved; However, if you short near the lowest position of this shock range, you can't solve it. In other words, it is difficult for you to solve the problem only if you are unfortunate enough to be near the lowest position of this oscillation range. In most other price ranges, if you enter the warehouse, you don't need to stop loss even if you are quilted, and you can untie it at some point in the future. After all, you are just near the lowest point of the shock range, and the probability must be very small. Therefore, in a big shock range, if you are trapped, don't stop loss, as long as the position is not heavy, you can carry it. Shock accounts for two-thirds of the time, and most of the time is shock. As shown in the figure below:

The second reason: in a trending market, there is a trend for one third of the time. But even so, most of the trend market is also a volatile market, taking three steps and two turns. If the market is rising, then you chase more in the middle of the market, then the market falls and you are trapped, then you can solve the problem in the future, because the market will resume its trend in the future. Unless you are unlucky enough to catch up with the end of the trend, you will be stuck in the highest position after turning. Of course, the proportion of time points near the highest point is very, very small, so in many cases, it can be solved if you follow the trend. There is another way, if you are against the trend, if the market is volatile, then you are short against the trend. Although you are temporarily trapped, the market is going back in three steps. If you are caught, you can also sell it after the market retreats. Unless you are short against the trend, you will not be able to return to your position if the market turns back. It's not small this time, but it's not too big. You can't get rid of it about 40% of the time and you can get rid of it about 60% of the time. As shown in the figure below:

Because most of the intraday market is composed of the above two trends. Therefore, if you are quilted in the day, most of them can be carried back; Even if there is a unilateral market trend in the day, if you make a single order against the trend on the same day, it will not be released on the same day, so in the next few days, the ups and downs of the market will also let you release it. Unless the market happens in a unilateral stable market, you just go against the trend and you can't solve it. After all, unilateral stable market is rare, accounting for only about 10%, so you can get rid of the quilt cover 90% of the time. Third, since most quilt orders can be accepted, isn't that a stop loss? But the problem is that once the extreme trend market comes out, the speed will be very fast, and the increase or decrease will be great. If you happen to catch up with this time, make a single order against the trend, get stuck without a stop loss, and hope to automatically untie it, it will be miserable. Or, you entered the warehouse conveniently, but the general trend of the market has quietly changed. You follow the previous general trend, such as entering the market at the end of the crash, so once the market reverses, you will also suffer heavy losses. As shown in the figure below:

Therefore, people who explode or suffer heavy losses do not die in constant battles, nor do they often suffer heavy losses, but die in one or two contraries. Because I am used to the past, I can get rid of the set without stopping, so I have a habit, so after the trend comes out, I will lose money. In fact, the people who broke the warehouse basically died in several contrarian events, that is, they lived for a long time and died for a short time. Therefore, 70% wrong stop loss is better than stop loss, because even if there is no stop loss at 1%, it will lead to your short position. Especially after the trend comes out, you must stop without hesitation. Because after the trend comes out, the speed is faster and the range is greater. The less you stop loss, the greater the floating loss, and the less you can bear to stop loss. Therefore, the risk comes first, and the loss is not as good as the stop loss. It's an opportunity, but it's not right, that is, making less money can keep us alive, and living will give us a chance to make a comeback. It is very important to watch the real-time news and market of futures at ordinary times. I usually read it on the "One Futures" website. There is a channel of futures calendar, which is very useful. Hope to adopt!