According to data analysis, in the middle of June last year, the price of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil plants soared from 5438+065438+ 10, of which the price of soybean meal in Guangdong oil plant reached 5700 yuan/ton and that in Shandong oil plant reached 5750 yuan/ton. The price of soybean meal of many domestic traders rose to more than 6000 yuan/ton, which directly pushed up the breeding cost. According to the calculation of some institutions, it directly drives the cost of pig fattening to rise by 0.09 yuan/ton, while the soybean meal market in the normal stage in previous years was only 3,500 ~ 3,600 yuan/ton. The soybean meal market rose this time, and the cost of pig fattening was pushed up by 2.2~2.5 yuan/kg, further squeezing the profit space of farmers!
However, after the Spring Festival in 23 years, the domestic soybean meal market staged "Waterloo", and the soybean meal price became "a thing of the past", which started a downward trend. At present, the price of soybean meal in domestic mainstream oil plants has dropped to about 4170 ~ 4,240 yuan/ton, which is about 1400 ~ lower than the previous high point.
Then, why did soybean meal, which once rose like a rocket, start the price decline again?
On the one hand, due to the falling international commodity prices and the news of high soybean yield in South America and Brazil, the soybean futures price weakened, which also led to the lower domestic soybean meal price and supported the weak spot soybean meal market!
On the other hand, since last June 165438+ 10, the domestic soybean import scale has been gradually relaxed. Before the Spring Festival, the operating rate of oil plants generally exceeded 70%, and the average weekly soybean crushing capacity exceeded 2 million tons. After entering the Spring Festival, the oil plant was fully started, the operating rate remained high, and the domestic soybean meal inventory was obviously loose! In March, the scale of imported soybeans in Hong Kong decreased to about 6.5 million tons this month. However, at present, soybean stocks in oil plants are still around 3.3 million tons, up 24.5% year-on-year. Therefore, the supply of soybeans is relatively loose, and the backlog pressure of soybean meal in some oil plants has increased sharply, and enterprises have been forced to reduce the operating rate and improve. But the market supply level is relatively loose!
Thirdly, on the demand side, since the Spring Festival this year, the profitability of domestic livestock and poultry breeding is poor, the loss of pig fattening continues, and the layer breeding industry is also in the stage of floating loss balance, overlapping. Before and after the Spring Festival, the large pigs at the breeding end were exhausted, and after the Spring Festival, most of them were medium and low standard pigs, and the feed demand weakened and superimposed. Just after the Spring Festival, feed enterprises concentrate on stocking, and most of them are mainly based on inventory consumption after the year. Feed enterprises are slow to get goods, and the demand performance is sluggish!
Therefore, under the market pressure of mismatch between production and sales, the domestic spot soybean meal market has fallen sharply. At present, the quotation of some oil plants has gradually fallen below 4200 yuan/ton. According to institutional research, the bearish mood in the market will continue next week. Of the 1 10 feed enterprises, oil plants and traders monitored by the sample, over 80% believe that there is still room for further decline in the soybean meal market! For the market outlook, focus on the rhythm of imported soybeans arriving in Hong Kong and the mood of downstream demand for delivery!
How did the soybean meal rising from the "rocket" become a "yellow flower of tomorrow"? This may be the answer! What do you think of this? The above is my personal opinion!