Regarding the origin of all corn types, the origin of popcorn is controversial. It is generally believed that this kind of corn is a farmer's crop in America, and Europeans knew nothing about it before America was discovered. Before Columbus arrived in America, American Indians ate popcorn and chose varieties. Its origin center is more like South America and Central America. Owen commented on the historical data of popcorn, discussed its origin and history, and came to the conclusion that hard corn is a variation. In 1955, brunson presented the original evidence that the explosive ability is a quantitative trait controlled by many genes. Goodman and Brown identified 65,438+000 varieties of popcorn, pointing out that American popcorn is more complicated than China's hard corn, silty corn and horsetooth corn, and more research work is needed before the relationship between them can be clarified.
Before 1880, there was no mention of popcorn in early American agricultural articles and seed catalogues. Its development as a commodity began at 1880. Popcorn, which botanists and farmers may be familiar with, is mainly planted as a garden crop. 19 10, this kind of corn began to enter the homes of ordinary people, and in 19 12, the planting scale of 7700 hectares was formed. 1925 or so, white rice, queen's gold, and Japanese shellless have become the varieties used in commodity production, among which white rice is more important. In the following years, the South American variety Supergold and its sister variety Yellow Pearl ("Yellow Pearl") played an important role in production, replacing Queen Golden. In modern times, the variety 1 used in hard-core popcorn industry is Spanish, which is the burst type of hard-core corn. The swelling capacity is medium, but the particles are large. Later, it was quickly replaced by better varieties in South America. The commercial popcorn hybrid 1 was produced in Minnesota Agricultural Experimental Station on 1934. It is a single cross between H.K.Hayes and l.J.Johnson and two inbred lines C 1 and C6. In 1955, there were many popcorn hybrids used for commodity production in Minnesota. In 1958, Brunson and Richardson provided the open hybrid pedigree catalogue adopted in 1956. So far, there are many varieties of popcorn hybrids.
In China, popcorn is one of the earliest corn varieties, which has been planted for more than 400 years. At present, there are also a number of excellent popcorn hybrids.
First, the domestic corn market price is expected to enter the upward track again.
In May 2003, the domestic corn market price trend was stable. Although the battle against SARS did not win in the end, the spread of the epidemic was gradually contained. The domestic corn market price was affected by SARS, and the original upward trend was forced to stop, and some areas fell. How will the domestic corn market price operate in the future? Can not help but become a concern of enterprises in the field of production and marketing. In this regard, the author summarizes several driving factors that affect the development of domestic corn market in the later period.
On the whole, in the short term, affected by the SARS epidemic, the domestic corn market demand will remain low-key, and it is difficult for the market price to have a favorable opportunity to rise, so it is more likely to maintain the current price. In the long run, with the gradual optimism of the domestic and international corn market development environment and the effective control of the SARS epidemic, the domestic corn market price is expected to enter the upward track again.
Second, the domestic corn market price trend is basically stable.
Affected by the SARS epidemic, the domestic corn trade was blocked, and the procurement activities of enterprises in the sales areas were significantly reduced. With the decrease of demand, the corn market price in the production and marketing areas began to stop rising and stabilize. Up to now, the domestic corn market is as follows: (Note: the following quoted varieties are all second-class yellow corn, with water content 14%)
Production area (warehouse price): 940 yuan/ton in Harbin, Heilongjiang, down 20% from the same period of last month; Jilin Changchun 960 yuan/ton, down 30% from the same period of last month; Shenyang, Liaoning 1000 yuan/ton, down 20% from the same period of last month; Tongliao, Inner Mongolia 1040 yuan/ton, unchanged from the same period of last month; Dezhou, Shandong 1060 yuan/ton, unchanged from last month; Shijiazhuang, Hebei 10 10 yuan/ton, unchanged from last month; Xuzhou, Jiangsu 1070 yuan/ton, the same as last month; Lianyungang area 1060 yuan/ton, unchanged from the same period of last month; Zhengzhou, Henan 1000 yuan/ton, the same as last month; Xi 'an 1000 yuan/ton, the same as last month. Sales area (delivery price): Chengdu, Sichuan 1 100 yuan/ton, unchanged from last month; Hangzhou, Jiangsu 1 100 yuan/ton, the same as last month. Port (flat cabin price): Dalian Port 1060 yuan/ton, down from the same period of last month10%; Qinhuangdao 1050 yuan/ton, down from the same period of last month 10%. Sales area (port price): Guangzhou 1 140 yuan/ton, the same as the same period of last month; Fujian Port 1 160 yuan/ton, unchanged from last month; Shanghai 1 120 yuan/ton, the same as last month.
Through the comparative analysis of the current market price and the price of the same period last month, it is not difficult to see that the domestic corn market price trend has basically maintained a stable operation trend, and the price decline is relatively limited. To some extent, the impact of SARS epidemic on the corn market price in China is limited. It only weakens the contrast between supply and demand of corn in the short term and inhibits the further price increase, but in the long run, it can't change the general direction of the development of market supply and demand pattern.
Three, this year China's corn planting area will be reduced compared with the previous year.
Recently, due to the influence of cold air, rainy weather has ushered in most parts of Northeast China, and artificial rainfall has been implemented in some water-deficient areas. The drought in most areas has been improved, and the soil moisture is suitable, which is conducive to the emergence of corn sowing and the sowing progress has been obviously accelerated. According to the monitoring results of relevant departments, the sowing of maize in dry land in Jilin is coming to an end, but the sowing of maize in some eastern areas has been delayed. According to relevant departments, the drought in Jilin production area this year is not optimistic, and it is estimated that the proportion of field corn "sowing with water" is close to 40%. The sowing of corn in Heilongjiang field is also quite smooth. It is estimated that the sowing progress in Harbin in Central China is close to 90%, the sowing of maize in Qiqihar is slightly slow due to drought, and the sowing in Daqing and Suihua has been completed by about 70%. Corn has also begun to sprout in most parts of Liaoning, and the seedling situation in the whole province is basically normal. It is estimated that the sown area of corn will decrease slightly compared with the previous year, but the decline is not significant.
Affected by factors such as corn and soybean rotation, returning farmland to forests and market prices, it is estimated that the sown area of corn in China will be reduced this year compared with the previous year, and the sown area is expected to be 24 million hectares, a decrease of 500,000 hectares compared with the previous year. The National Bureau of Statistics announced that the total corn output in China in 2002/2003 was1.21.300 million tons. Due to the decrease of planting area, the corn yield this year will be lower than that of the previous year. It is estimated that the corn yield in 2003/04 will be1.1.900 billion tons.
In 2002, due to the frequent auctions of aged corn and aged corn in domestic corn producing areas, the market sales volume was huge, and the domestic corn inventory level was obviously reduced. The expected decline in output in 2003 indicates that the market supply will continue to decrease in the future. With the development of China's economy, the market demand of aquaculture and feed industry will increase, and the original contradiction between supply and demand will be further alleviated. The market is expected to develop in a direction conducive to the upward price of corn.
Fourth, the domestic corn export situation is still optimistic.
Recently, the CBOT corn futures market soared. In July, the CBOT corn contract closed at $2.52 per bushel, up 9.50 cents. Boosted by the strong CBOT corn futures price, the spot price of corn in the United States rose. The price of American feed corn shipped in June is $0 138- 140 per ton (CNF price in South Korea and Taiwan Province Province). The strong price in the United States has widened the price difference between China corn and American corn. At present, the price difference of feed corn between the United States and China is 20 dollars per ton (CNF price). Because of this, Korean feed enterprises are more willing to purchase corn from China. According to an official of China Cereals, Oils and Foodstuffs Import and Export Group, they don't supply any corn at present, "I hope to wait and see the trend of CBOT corn market". Another authoritative organization predicts that although the popularity of corn in China will be affected to some extent by the spread of SARS virus, which will cause international buyers to wait for a while before signing a new contract, the World Health Organization has claimed that there is no evidence that SARS is related to animals. Therefore, China's corn price advantage will offset the unfavorable factors in the market and further stimulate the increase of export volume.
According to the latest report released by the National Grain and Oil Information Center, China's corn export is expected to reach140,000 tons in the market year of 2002/03 (from 10 to September of the following year), with a year-on-year increase of 63%. At the same time, the US Department of Agriculture reported in May that China's corn export in 2002/03 was 6,543,803,500 tons, 500,000 tons higher than the forecast in April. According to the data of China Customs, during the period of 200102, China only exported 86 1 10,000 tons of corn. According to the forecast data at home and abroad, China's corn export will increase by 56.8-62.6% in 2002/2003 compared with the previous year.
Some people think that the impact of SARS epidemic on corn export is mainly psychological, not realistic, and this psychological shadow will continue for some time, and it is still possible to turn it into a realistic impact. However, through the prevention and control of domestic governments at all levels, the epidemic situation has been obviously controlled, which is very helpful to alleviate the psychological pressure on the market. The author thinks that the possibility of psychological pressure turning into real pressure is weak, and the domestic corn export situation is still optimistic, which is still of positive significance to alleviate the domestic supply pressure and promote the benign development of the domestic corn market.
Verb (abbreviation of verb) The overall price of the international grain market is rising.
The structure of international production and demand has changed: According to the report of the Foreign Agricultural Service of the US Department of Agriculture, it is predicted that the global production and consumption of coarse grains will reach a record high in 2003/04, but the ending inventory has been declining for five consecutive years, the lowest in 20 years. The inventory/consumption ratio is expected to be 14.7%, the lowest in 28 years. This will provide support for the overall strength of international food prices and play a role in boosting international corn prices. However, the price increase of other grain varieties is only an aid to the corn market, and the change of international corn production and demand structure is the decisive factor of the market price. It is estimated that the global corn output will reach a new high of 624 million tons. However, due to the record high consumption, the estimated ending inventory is the lowest since 1983/84. It is estimated that global consumption will increase by nearly 6 million tons, mainly due to the increase in consumption in Brazil, Mexico and the United States.
International shipping freight is rising: although SARS virus poses a serious threat to Asian financial markets, Panama's cargo-grade dry goods shipping market seems unaffected by this flu-like virus, which has hit a new high in eight years, forcing the import cost to increase. Shipping brokers believe that the sharp increase in freight rates is due to the steady demand for grain and ore, especially in China, while the backlog of goods in South American and Australian ports leads to tight supply of freighters. According to a broker in Seoul, although there is almost no freight pricing at present, the freight of Panamanian cargo ships from Meiwan to Japan is more than $35.00 per ton, and the delivery price at the end of May or early June a week ago is $ 34.50-35.00. The current price is the highest level since April 1995, when the freight was as high as $38 per ton. The broker said that the upward trend of freight is still strong, and nothing can stop Panama's freight-grade freight from soaring further, which is likely to reach the previous high of $38.00. The increase of sea freight will increase the import cost, and then raise the overall price of the international grain market.
Judging from the supply and demand of international corn market and freight rate, the international market situation is optimistic in the later period, which has a positive effect on promoting the price increase of international corn market.
(Author: Market Information Department of Jilin Grain Center, Wang Shiliang Address: No.35 Jianshe Street, Changchun City 13006 1 Tel: 043 1-852202-804 1)
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