Futures traders all know that when we invest in a commodity, we should analyze its fundamentals and technical aspects. When the two are consistent, there will generally be a big market. Today, we will briefly talk about how to use this "two-sided" investment operation. Here I take steel bars as an example:

Fundamentally, we must understand the relationship between supply and demand of rebar.

Rebar supply: The provinces and cities with the largest rebar output in China are Jiangsu, Hebei and Shandong in turn. The rebar output of the top 10 provinces and cities accounts for 67.4% of the total rebar output in China. Hebei has Hebei Iron and Steel Group, Shandong has Shandong Iron and Steel Group, and Jiangsu has Jiangsu Shagang Group, which trades rebar. Their production capacity deserves attention.

Rebar demand: Rebar is widely used in civil engineering construction such as houses, bridges and roads. From highways, railways, bridges, culverts, tunnels, flood control, dams and other public facilities to the foundations, beams, columns, walls and slabs of buildings, steel bars are indispensable structural materials.

Policy influence changes supply demand: 201510 proposed at the financial conference: an important measure of supply-side reform. The meeting put forward five major tasks in 20 16: de-capacity, de-inventory, de-leverage, cost reduction and short-board. It is the primary task for the steel industry to reduce production capacity by 20 16. De-capacity means that supply begins to decrease and commodity prices in the market will rise, which brings great opportunities to speculators in the futures market.

So technically, how do we operate?

We can first look at the trend of rebar futures on the weekly line (as shown above). On the premise of favorable fundamentals, every wave of rising prices fell back to the vicinity of the 20-week moving average, forming strong support and driving the rise again. In the process of firm offer operation, you can choose to eat a wave of rising prices, gradually take profit and close positions, wait for the callback to end, and buy again after stabilization.

How do we operate at the daily level?

Pay attention to two common technical signals:

1, 20-day moving average or 30-day moving average. Hold multiple prices above the moving average (don't short easily); The price is short below the moving average (don't go long easily).

2. When the multi-period moving averages are bonded, pay attention to the possibility that the market is relatively large.

From the above figure, we can see that the (rebar April-10) moving average is stuck or crossed at 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. After that, there was a wave of big ups and downs.

You can ask me any other questions. .