Compared with the soaring prices of wheat, corn and soybeans. The trend of the world's most populous rice has been very mild.

On the one hand, from a global perspective, the supply and demand of rice are relatively stable most of the time.

For example, from 20 12 to 20021year, the total output and consumption of global rice remained at about 500 million tons, and the supply was slightly greater than the demand, so the overall supply of rice was in a relatively sufficient state, that is to say, there was rarely a big gap between the supply and demand of global rice.

On the other hand, the production and sales of rice in the world are relatively concentrated.

About 80% of the world's rice is produced in Asia, and the top five countries in the world are China, Indian, Bangladeshi, Indonesian and Vietnamese.

These five countries are basically big rice consumers in the world.

Therefore, the overall pattern of rice is in a state of self-production and self-sale, so production and sales can often reach a balance.

It is this model that has laid a very solid foundation for global rice. When the prices of corn, wheat and soybeans soared last year, rice not only did not rise, but also fell.

Until this year, in the monthly report of global food price index released by FAO, the price of rice has been rising continuously, but this increase is more driven by global inflation.

Recently, however, as India began to impose a 20% export tax on some rice and banned the export of broken rice, a "price hike" was brewing around the world.

Although China is the largest rice producer in the world, China's rice exports are not large. In terms of rice exports, India accounts for more than 40% of global trade.

However, due to the severe high temperature and drought disaster in India this year, which has affected its domestic rice production, it is expected that rice production will decline with a high probability. Therefore, in order to ensure domestic supply and price stability, India began to impose 20% export tariffs on some rice varieties on September 9, and banned the export of broken rice.

As India accounts for a relatively large proportion in the global rice export trade, the release of this policy has a certain impact on the global rice trade pattern.

The most direct impact is the rise in rice prices.

According to industry estimates, this restriction in India may reduce the country's rice exports by 25%, which means that the global rice supply will decline.

On the other hand, Vietnam and Thailand, the second and third largest rice exporters in the world, followed closely, expressing their readiness to raise the export price of rice.

The reason is that farmers in this country can no longer bear the heavy burden of soaring fertilizer prices.

It is reported that the two countries may increase the export price of rice by about 20%.

Who has the greatest influence after the rice price rises?

There are several kinds of rice exported from India, one is long-grain fragrance. These varieties are mainly exported to the Middle East and Europe, and the price is relatively high, which is not within the scope of tariff collection, so the impact is not great.

The other is short-grained white rice, the export price is low, and it is mainly exported to the Philippines, Indonesia and some East African countries, which is within the scope of collection.

Therefore, with the introduction of tariffs, the export price of this rice price will inevitably rise.

For example, about 20% of rice consumption in the Philippines comes from imports every year. Although the main source country of rice imported by the Philippines is not India, with the introduction of Indian rice export tax, the global rice price will rise, so these rice importing countries such as the Philippines will also be affected.

So, will China's rice follow suit?

Over the years, China has always adhered to "food security" as the bottom line, and rice is an important food ration in China. Among the three staple food varieties in China, rice can be said to be the most stable, and the yield has been maintained at a high level.

The annual output of rice in China is about 200 million tons, which is about1.3 ~1.500 million tons when converted into rice, and the stock and supply are very loose.

In addition, the quantity of rice imported from China is small, mainly used for variety adjustment, and there is no gap.

Therefore, the fluctuation of rice market has little influence on China.