After a wave of rising corn, some enterprises broke through the 1.5 yuan mark, but the market has been fluctuating for the past two days; The egg market fell at a high level. Although there is limited room for further decline, it is still a bit "worrying".
Although the price of sheep has rebounded, the market has been blocked, and it has really become "a sheep has become a sheep."
First, the price of pigs fluctuated downward, and the price of meat officially fell.
The hog market entered the middle period of 1 1, and the market began to decline. The pig price has returned from 14.2 yuan/kg to the present 12. 18 yuan/kg. A kilo dropped by about 2 yuan.
With the price of pigs falling all the way, the price of pork has also been lowered. Pork prices have dropped in some areas. 3. 4 yuan. According to enthusiastic netizens, the mainstream retail price of pork is between 19-23 yuan/kg.
The pork price data monitored by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs also continued to fall. The latest data shows that the average price of pork in the national agricultural products wholesale market is 33.30 yuan/kg, down 0.9% from yesterday; Beef was 76.90 yuan/kg, down 0.4% from yesterday; Mutton 67.25 yuan/kg, the same as yesterday; Eggs 12.25 yuan/kg, down 0.2% from yesterday.
According to official news: 65438+ 10 In September and June, the prices of live pigs and live pigs rose simultaneously, and the lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities across the country increased by over 40%. The price of meat has risen too much and entered the first-level warning. Through a series of measures, such as putting in reserve meat and guiding slaughter, the prices of pork and live pigs fell simultaneously, from 165438+ 10/7/0/65438.
Although the price of pork has been lowered, it is still in the early warning stage of the second excessive rise. At present, the retail price of pork in most areas is still above 20 yuan/kg.
Let's take a look at the latest pig price:
Although the overall downward trend of the live pig market in all provinces in China is suspended, it is still in the pattern of "falling more and rising less", and the ratio of rising and falling in all provinces and cities is "3 up 10 down 13".
The market only rose in Jiangsu, Heilongjiang and Gansu provinces, with an increase of 1-2 points. The decline areas are mainly distributed in the southwest, as well as Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Hunan, Jiangxi and Shanghai, with the decline ranging from 1-3 points. See attached table for specific quotation:
Analysis of the reasons for the drop of live pig price;
First, as mentioned above, the government has invested heavily in purchasing and storing pork, and guided large-scale pig enterprises to slaughter in an orderly manner, so as to make the pork market fully supplied and stabilize pig prices and meat prices.
Second, affected by the inflated pork price, although it is in the peak season of pork consumption, after pork surpassed 20 yuan, the consumption dropped significantly, which pushed the pork price down and forced the pork price down.
Third, the recent decline in the volume of white pork and the decline in production and processing capacity of slaughter enterprises. Some enterprises bought pigs at low prices and made relatively stable profits.
From the analysis of the future trend of the market, my personal view is that there will be no big mistakes in pig prices before the Spring Festival, and the general direction should be a strong shock trend, which may be the "three in and three out" market. It is still possible to expect the pig price to reach 14 yuan, but the core logic is that pork consumption before the Spring Festival will "hold up" the pig price.
Second, corn stagflation and decline, the risk can not be ignored.
In recent days, the rising momentum of the corn market has changed, and the downside risks have been repeatedly reminded.
Judging from the market performance, the resistance of corn price increase is large, and the overall trend of corn market is weak.
The latest corn quotation shows that many corn enterprises in Shandong have lowered their purchase prices: Shandong Fukuan fell 1 point, and the quotation was 1.450 yuan/kg; Hengren's industry and trade fell 1 point, 1.470 yuan/kg; Chengwu fell by 0.5 point, 1.435 yuan/kg; Chengwu osawa fell 0.5 points, 1.445 yuan/kg; Dongping Xiangrui fell 1.5 points, 1.430 yuan/kg.
Only the price of Kailu Wang Yu in Tongliao, Inner Mongolia, in the three northeastern provinces and one district increased by 1 min and 1.355 yuan/kg.
The main reasons for the downward adjustment of corn prices today:
First, the amount of corn to Shandong has increased. Today, there are 739 corn enterprises in front of Shandong, an increase of 348 compared with yesterday, almost doubling, which has led some enterprises to lower their prices.
Second, due to the recent continuous increase in corn prices in three northeastern provinces and one district, trade is becoming more and more worried, and people are afraid of "taking the old road of 202 1", making money at a loss through high-priced acquisition, and making acquisitions more cautious.
Third, it is reported that a large number of imported corn will arrive in Hong Kong in the near future, and the superimposed corn futures will fall sharply, which will pose certain market pressure on the corn market.
In the market outlook, the corn market as a whole is optimistic, but it does not rule out that there will be a phased decline in June 5438+February, mainly due to the pressure of withdrawing funds from consumption at the end of the year, and there will be a peak in selling grain.
However, judging from the current relationship between supply and demand of corn, the support of purchasing corn at high prices in grain depots around the country, the demand for replenishing grain reserves and the emergence of the international food crisis, the market price of corn should not be too pessimistic.
Third, the egg high callback is expected to be cautious in the market outlook.
Recently, the egg market has been in a weak position, with big drops and small drops appearing alternately. Anyway, it has been falling, and the price of eggs has dropped from 6 yuan per catty to 5.6 yuan per catty.
The latest egg market shows that eggs in eight provinces in North China, East China and South China fell by 0.05-0.20 yuan.
Among them: the price of eggs in Northeast China is at a new low of 4.98-5.70 yuan/kg, and Liaoning is the first region to fall below the 5 yuan mark; The mainstream price in North China is 5.2-5.83 yuan/kg; 5.30-6.72 yuan/kg in East China; Central China 5.40-6. 14 yuan/kg; Northwest 5.40-6.60 yuan/kg.
The continued weakening of egg prices is completely unexpected. As early as before the National Day, when the price of eggs rose, it was suggested that the price of eggs would drop significantly during the period of 10- 12.
The main logic has three points:
First, after the National Day, according to the usual practice, egg consumption will enter a gradually weakening market, and egg prices will also have a more or less falling process.
Second, due to the continuous increase in egg prices this year, since May, there has been a phenomenon that all kinds of breeding subjects have added supplementary columns, resulting in a continuous increase in the number of newly produced eggs after 10, and the increase in production capacity is unfavorable to egg prices.
Thirdly, due to the inflated price of eggs in the early stage, the price of mainstream eggs once rose to one kilo more in 6 yuan, and even reached more in 7 yuan in some areas, which had a direct impact on residents' consumption. Even now, the retail price of eggs in most areas is still higher than that in 6 yuan, which makes it difficult for residents to consume and reduces their consumption, thus putting negative pressure on egg prices.
As for the market outlook of eggs, my personal opinion is that the national average price of eggs is 5.55 yuan/kg at present, which will drop by at least 0.5- 1.0 yuan, and will not drop before the Spring Festival, and will return to below 5 yuan in the second quarter of next year.
Fourth, the price of cattle and sheep has just improved, and the market has encountered resistance.
65438+ 10 Since September, the price of sheep has stopped falling and stabilized, and some areas have slightly increased. The average price of fattening cattle increased by about 1- 1.5 yuan per catty. The mainstream price was 17.5- 18.5 yuan/catty, and the average price per cow increased by 1000.
The prices of sheep and cattle rose slightly, by about 1-2 yuan. A fattening sheep 120 kg increased between 150-200 yuan, and lambs grew well, with an average price difference of 100- 150 yuan.
But in recent days, the price of sheep has changed and can't go up. There is no market in some areas. It's really like playing the game of "sheep have sheep". When you get to the second level, you can't get through. This is also going up, you can't get up.
The latest sheep price shows: 650 yuan, Shanxi Qixian male lamb 30 kg; 30 kg female 500 yuan/sheep, 12.0 yuan/sheep, 13.0 yuan/ram, 680 30 kg Yuncheng lambs; 520 yuan, Dazhou, Sichuan /30 kg sheep; Xianyang, Shaanxi120kg ram 18.5 yuan/kg; Anhui Huaibei fattening sheep 16.0 yuan/kg; Fattening Hu sheep in Shouxian, Huainan 14.2 yuan/kg; There are 780 female lambs and 650 male lambs, weighing about 40 kilograms.
The reasons for the stagflation of sheep prices are:
First, because of the cold weather recently, some farmers have begun to eliminate some ewes. These ewes are cheap, but they are also a market for capacity supply, which leads to loose supply in stages and puts some pressure on sheep prices.
Second, although the price of sheep is only 10 yuan a catty, the price of mutton is still not low at present, and the retail price is rarely lower than that of 40 yuan, even reaching a catty of 50 yuan in some areas. In addition, this year, due to masks and economic factors, the income of some residents has shrunk, their consumption power has declined, and the volume of mutton has declined, which has a negative impact on the price of sheep.
As for the market outlook, I personally feel that with the arrival of deep winter, mutton consumption will improve, the number of eliminated sheep will decline, and the price of sheep will still rise before the Spring Festival.
Dear friends, what's the price of pork, eggs and mutton in your place? How much is a catty? Please warm-hearted netizens to bask in the sun for the reference of netizens all over the country.